Drab-Alliance — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$399

Unrealized P&L

-$159

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

1,375 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$1.87K

$55.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$729

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 11-06 18:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 91 days

Categories

Politics

42% 53% -$3,309

Other

38% 52% -$933

Crypto

18% 68% -$507

Sports

2% 14% -$37

Tech

1% 50% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-400	-$280	90¢	$-358	-$78	05-03 07:31
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+220	$152	77¢	$169	+$18	10-23 13:59
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+200	$94	63¢	$127	+$33	10-07 14:11
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?	No	+200	$104	35¢	$70	-$34	11-05 11:25
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	+200	$102	2¢	$5	-$97	10-25 09:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	15	$2.3K	1,753	1,753	+0	open	—	11-06 18:49
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	10	$2.1K	1,269	1,269	+0	No	+$359	04-28 09:13
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	23	$2.1K	5,304	1,440	+3,864	Up	-$671	02-13 14:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	6	$1.6K	1,588	1,588	+0	Yes	-$1,205	06-15 11:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$1.4K	790	790	+0	No	+$111	05-12 15:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	11	$1.2K	700	700	+0	No	+$220	05-30 20:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$1.2K	1,333	1,333	+0	No	+$83	04-20 22:03
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	8	$1.1K	704	704	+0	No	+$60	02-24 10:02
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	5	$996	1,580	500	+1,080	Yes	-$236	09-20 16:52
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	4	$924	913	913	+0	Yes	-$43	05-30 20:58
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$906	489	489	+0	Yes	+$71	09-16 19:43
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	10	$830	910	910	+0	Yes	+$141	04-08 08:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	4	$793	500	500	+0	No	+$27	04-19 17:54
fif ger gha 2026 03 30 ger	3	$789	445	445	+0	Yes	+$101	03-30 21:02
another us government shutdown by february 14	5	$719	1,586	1,149	+437	No	+$46	02-13 22:26
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	7	$657	1,029	0	+1,029	No	+$372	04-15 19:58
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$629	334	334	+0	No	+$29	02-20 12:00
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$619	592	153	+439	Yes	-$362	02-20 12:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$618	355	355	+0	No	+$34	06-01 07:25
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	2	$601	309	309	+0	No	+$1	02-13 13:54
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	2	$600	318	318	+0	Yes	$0	06-14 14:09
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$584	300	300	+0	No	$0	04-29 08:11
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	2	$555	300	300	+0	No	+$9	04-29 14:33
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	3	$505	287	287	+0	Yes	+$69	03-26 19:00
Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?	7	$500	674	0	+674	No	+$174	09-21 15:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 15:20 UTC	21	$497	461	457	+3	Up	+$55	02-13 15:24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	2	$472	587	0	+587	Yes	-$472	02-27 16:09
us strike on somalia by february 14	2	$470	556	556	+0	Yes	+$70	02-13 10:55
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	6	$456	610	0	+610	No	-$456	09-19 10:28
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$430	736	0	+736	Yes	-$430	04-16 14:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 18:49:49	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xa57b9e…
11-06 15:22:46	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	183	55¢	$100	0x1e8434…
11-06 15:21:30	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	17	55¢	$10	0xf3af62…
11-06 14:43:25	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	300	40¢	$120	0xefd120…
11-05 14:08:37	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	42¢	$60	0x711594…
11-05 13:34:45	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0xac46cf…
11-05 11:25:10	Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x714412…
11-05 11:22:34	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x4bc00a…
11-05 10:48:18	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xb2a41f…
11-05 10:26:36	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x19e4ac…
11-05 10:03:37	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	42¢	$10	0x43d362…
11-03 18:42:06	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	73¢	$77	0x752a11…
11-03 16:20:30	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	SELL	280	12¢	$34	0x5ede61…
11-03 09:25:06	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xeb3bf7…
10-25 22:32:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0xbe88db…
10-25 09:59:05	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x40dfba…
10-23 13:59:15	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	69¢	$152	0x0e5e5c…
10-23 01:15:05	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	13¢	$7	0xd736f6…
10-23 00:59:05	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0xa03c46…
10-23 00:58:09	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	13¢	$4	0xf94110…
10-23 00:51:05	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x23a6fb…
10-23 00:46:39	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xef082d…
10-23 00:43:18	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	13¢	$2	0x7c4aee…
10-23 00:37:56	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	13¢	$9	0x87393b…
10-23 00:34:48	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x86ca39…
10-21 20:50:26	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	300	33¢	$99	0x4d1d74…
10-20 19:01:48	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	300	35¢	$105	0x138339…
10-20 12:54:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x6d03a0…
10-15 00:08:55	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	BUY	152	28¢	$43	0xecb3ff…
10-10 22:29:18	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xa8e2c4…
10-10 22:29:18	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x89521c…
10-10 22:29:18	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x86e29d…
10-10 22:29:18	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x4e62bc…
10-10 22:29:18	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x10aa40…
10-10 22:29:18	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x0ba488…
10-10 22:29:16	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xadcdf6…
10-10 22:29:16	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xa8b6f8…
10-10 22:29:16	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x2c10a2…
10-10 22:29:15	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xf73817…
10-10 22:29:15	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xc9b8fd…
10-10 22:29:15	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x8da984…
10-10 22:29:15	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x177adf…
10-10 22:29:13	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xdfef0c…
10-10 22:29:13	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xd86b7a…
10-10 22:29:13	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xb28009…
10-10 22:29:13	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x41d1f5…
10-10 22:29:10	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xf66b1c…
10-10 22:29:10	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xb87f51…
10-10 22:29:10	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x36b779…
10-10 22:29:10	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x195743…
10-10 22:29:09	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xf4d212…
10-10 22:29:09	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x6c17bb…
10-10 22:29:07	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xc83a28…
10-10 22:29:07	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x2596a3…
10-10 22:29:06	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xff3f32…
10-10 22:29:06	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xb8d179…
10-10 22:29:06	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x98b1fb…
10-10 22:29:06	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x0ce89a…
10-10 21:39:40	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x2660cf…
10-10 11:41:22	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	13¢	$16	0x2dc61f…
10-10 11:35:43	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	13¢	$13	0x7ba348…
10-09 15:13:40	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x99680d…
10-09 15:13:30	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x89fdf9…
10-09 13:35:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x96b133…
10-08 23:42:03	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xce19e5…
10-07 21:08:31	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	300	85¢	$254	0xf90668…
10-07 14:11:47	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	23	47¢	$11	0x8800e4…
10-07 13:28:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xc6a306…
10-07 13:26:52	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	12	47¢	$6	0x0b7742…
10-07 13:25:10	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x94515f…
10-07 13:25:10	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x75bd1c…
10-07 13:24:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xcdd8b0…
10-07 13:24:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x94fee3…
10-07 13:24:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x810016…
10-07 13:23:01	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xc81147…
10-07 13:22:29	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0xcb1701…
10-07 13:22:29	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xc4b572…
10-07 13:22:29	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x002755…
10-07 08:20:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	70	47¢	$33	0x3c6ec1…
10-06 21:34:12	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x947043…
10-06 21:34:12	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	397	95¢	$377	0x8fd9a7…
10-06 13:01:01	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0xf91f20…
09-29 12:57:24	will wti dip to 90 in september 2026 from september 23	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xf58ba0…
09-29 12:57:24	will wti dip to 90 in september 2026 from september 23	Yes	BUY	90	88¢	$79	0x07798b…
09-28 13:41:24	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	160	24¢	$38	0xf707f5…
09-28 13:40:36	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	140	24¢	$34	0xfcb993…
09-24 12:04:21	Japan vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x1a4fdc…
09-24 07:23:57	will wti dip to 90 in september 2026 from september 23	Yes	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0x67109f…
09-24 07:19:17	will trump say economy during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	BUY	91	33¢	$30	0x58c047…
09-21 15:51:01	Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	230	73¢	$168	0xe8838b…
09-21 13:02:14	Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	70	73¢	$51	0x0c66d7…
09-20 21:06:55	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	SELL	38	8¢	$3	0x0c766c…
09-20 21:04:05	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	SELL	229	8¢	$18	0x8c8147…
09-20 20:30:52	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	SELL	233	8¢	$19	0x2baad4…
09-20 16:52:51	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	380	9¢	$34	0xac100b…
09-20 16:52:21	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0xbb2d4f…
09-20 16:43:43	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x0e1fa6…
09-20 16:43:10	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0xb4652f…
09-20 16:19:46	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$23	0x210842…
09-20 14:18:54	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?	Yes	SELL	48	87¢	$42	0x07752d…