Downright-Productivity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

64.2%

Resolved

175

Trades

296

lifetime

Volume

$789

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 09-25 12:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 54% +$5

Politics

22% 38% -$27

Sports

13% 8% +$5

Other

1% 50% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes		+117	$11	4¢	$4	-$6	09-25 12:39
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+22	$2	3¢	$1	-$1	05-07 16:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$31	251	0	+251	Yes	+$20	04-05 13:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 03:10 UTC	2	$27	26	25	+0	Up	+$7	03-10 03:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 02:20 UTC	4	$26	21	20	+0	Up	+$4	03-09 02:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 03:25 UTC	2	$23	22	22	+0	Down	+$3	03-10 03:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 02:35 UTC	2	$22	12	12	+0	Up	+$2	03-10 02:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	03-02 18:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	03-02 18:38
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$18	100	0	+100	No	-$18	05-10 23:46
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$16	100	0	+100	Yes	+$84	05-10 23:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 20:15 UTC	1	$16	33	0	+33	Up	+$17	03-07 20:16
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$16	122	0	+122	No	-$16	03-28 21:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 02:10 UTC	2	$12	14	13	+0	Down	+$3	03-09 02:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 23:40 UTC	2	$12	11	11	+0	Down	+$3	04-05 23:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 00:05 UTC	2	$12	19	0	+19	Up	+$2	03-08 00:09
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$11	100	0	+100	No	-$11	05-10 23:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 22:45 UTC	2	$11	9	8	+0	Up	+$4	04-05 22:46
Trump out as President before 2027?	4	$11	117	0	+117	open	—	09-25 12:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 03:55 UTC	2	$11	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	03-10 03:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 04:35 UTC	2	$10	20	20	+0	Up	-$10	03-10 04:38
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	1	$10	13	0	+13	Yes	+$3	03-30 14:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 00:40 UTC	1	$10	11	0	+11	Up	-$10	03-08 00:44
will trump say israel or gaza during the 2026 state of the union address 833	1	$10	11	0	+11	Yes	+$1	02-25 02:39
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$9	100	0	+100	No	-$9	05-10 23:47
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$9	100	0	+100	No	-$9	05-10 23:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 23:30 UTC	4	$8	12	2	+9	Down	+$2	03-07 23:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 17:15 UTC	1	$8	17	0	+17	Down	+$9	03-07 17:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 20:05 UTC	1	$8	16	0	+16	Up	-$8	03-07 20:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 01:35 UTC	1	$8	16	0	+16	Down	+$8	03-05 01:34
will trump say black or hispanic during the 2026 state of the union address 716	3	$8	10	5	+5	No	-$6	02-25 03:41
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$8	100	0	+100	No	-$8	05-10 23:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-25 12:41:09	Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x34ec9d…
09-25 12:39:12	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7ca26c…
07-23 21:53:12	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xe2b69d…
07-23 21:53:10	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x09fd21…
06-12 00:01:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfb6826…
06-09 00:26:19	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xc346ce…
05-30 16:30:09	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xe3d7e9…
05-12 11:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x195ada…
05-12 11:56:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x6e2742…
05-12 11:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x34c5d7…
05-12 11:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9c1e51…
05-11 02:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x7d7acd…
05-11 02:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x867a02…
05-11 02:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0x1c07ac…
05-11 02:25:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x8728e1…
05-11 02:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x49ffda…
05-11 01:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0xe2acc0…
05-11 01:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x73bbfb…
05-11 01:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5e8cea…
05-11 00:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x7e59c8…
05-11 00:50:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xac4fbd…
05-11 00:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$2	0xbddb79…
05-11 00:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xe76ee0…
05-11 00:35:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x66dd78…
05-11 00:35:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xf21e47…
05-10 23:47:38	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x2c56b0…
05-10 23:47:27	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x07194d…
05-10 23:47:20	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x9ec3d5…
05-10 23:47:13	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x779957…
05-10 23:47:08	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xde4592…
05-10 23:46:59	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x276d58…
05-10 23:46:54	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xc1c6cf…
05-10 23:46:40	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x334505…
05-07 16:30:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xb8bbee…
05-07 00:12:06	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xf4b254…
05-05 20:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xe7069f…
04-30 17:15:42	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0xfa0ec9…
04-30 17:15:04	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x20fb03…
04-30 02:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0xd5f992…
04-30 02:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xaa3fda…
04-30 01:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x82f96e…
04-30 01:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x8bb5f0…
04-30 01:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xe4d02d…
04-30 01:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0xdf4027…
04-30 01:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x260523…
04-30 00:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x02e52a…
04-30 00:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x5d2366…
04-30 00:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xeb9614…
04-30 00:41:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xec4b79…
04-30 00:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa79413…
04-30 00:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd7c260…
04-30 00:37:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x619eb8…
04-30 00:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x206ebb…
04-29 00:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xec49aa…
04-26 18:58:50	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x3cea11…
04-07 20:52:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 20:50 UTC	Up	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0xce2e49…
04-07 20:51:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x422b19…
04-07 03:03:11	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	SELL	48	5¢	$2	0xdc51b3…
04-07 02:57:59	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf7ed1d…
04-07 02:51:11	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x50a34b…
04-07 02:51:03	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xc31ec2…
04-06 15:10:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x163af1…
04-06 11:45:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xa2ecac…
04-06 11:40:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc32290…
04-06 11:35:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 11:35 UTC	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$1	0x0bff27…
04-06 11:35:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x10940f…
04-06 03:03:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 03:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xefe86d…
04-06 02:59:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 02:55 UTC	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xc17d41…
04-06 02:56:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 02:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x367c15…
04-05 23:49:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x46eae4…
04-05 23:42:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 23:40 UTC	Down	SELL	11	69¢	$7	0xcdd7cc…
04-05 23:41:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 23:40 UTC	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x0585e5…
04-05 23:30:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x50cd9a…
04-05 23:20:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 23:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x9bc6fd…
04-05 22:46:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 22:45 UTC	Up	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x12af99…
04-05 22:45:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xd2430b…
04-05 22:40:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x206871…
04-05 22:38:43	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x58220c…
04-05 14:35:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 14:30 UTC	Down	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0xda04cf…
04-05 14:30:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x105b32…
04-05 13:50:15	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xd08fe7…
04-04 01:15:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 01:15 UTC	Down	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x71614a…
04-04 01:15:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 01:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x71d057…
04-01 22:53:43	will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	Yes	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xeeb336…
04-01 16:01:15	will trump say nuclear during address to the nation 726	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x3a0ae6…
04-01 15:56:51	will trump say proxy or hezbollah during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xae3093…
04-01 15:56:23	will trump say ceasefire or peace deal during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x607d45…
04-01 15:55:21	will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xd39299…
03-30 14:35:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 14:35 UTC	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x58a986…
03-30 14:25:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 14:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x6a55ab…
03-30 14:24:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 14:20 UTC	Down	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x585639…
03-30 14:24:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 14:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x69786a…
03-30 14:23:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 14:20 UTC	Down	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0x65dcfa…
03-30 14:22:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 14:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x021a4b…
03-30 14:00:25	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x2aa7f6…
03-30 04:21:40	will uconn win the 2026 womens ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x9551be…
03-28 21:01:04	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xf05f3a…
03-28 21:00:58	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xd86eb2…
03-19 19:55:37	cbb siena duke 2026 03 19	Siena Saints	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x74bc21…
03-18 22:54:41	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x2bf23c…