Flat-History — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

88.9%

Resolved

Trades

117

lifetime

Volume

$5.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$45

Open exposure

$148

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 06-12 23:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% — —

Other

37% 100% +$1

Sports

3% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No		-126	$-125	99¢	$-125	$-0	05-30 01:26
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+365	$23	6¢	$23	+$0	06-12 23:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$1.4K	736	736	+0	Yes	+$1	04-23 07:20
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	20	$731	1,153	1,024	+129	open	—	05-31 04:29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	12	$393	303	303	+0	open	—	06-12 16:52
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	6	$324	164	164	+0	open	—	06-10 05:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$282	282	282	+0	open	—	06-05 17:43
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	5	$273	213	213	+0	open	—	06-10 11:41
Will Alberta join the US?	4	$256	134	134	+0	open	—	06-06 00:37
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	5	$253	186	186	+0	open	—	06-04 17:15
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$173	745	745	+0	No	+$0	04-21 19:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$149	249	249	+0	open	—	06-06 19:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	9	$146	1,742	1,742	+0	open	—	04-23 18:59
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	6	$146	389	389	+0	open	—	06-08 11:24
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	5	$141	370	370	+0	open	—	06-10 20:56
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	3	$125	0	126	-126	open	—	05-30 01:26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$104	132	132	+0	open	—	05-24 06:06
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	6	$103	387	488	-101	open	—	05-28 06:16
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	2	$76	131	131	+0	open	—	06-07 20:57
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	1	$38	259	0	+259	open	—	05-29 04:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$34	0	84	-84	open	—	05-23 10:07
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	2	$26	383	383	+0	open	—	05-27 01:19
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	5	$25	470	470	+0	open	—	06-10 01:48
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$23	365	0	+365	open	—	06-12 23:42
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	4	$10	306	306	+0	open	—	06-12 13:43
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$6	100	100	+0	open	—	06-06 10:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 23:42:33	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	365	6¢	$23	0xddfc62…
06-12 16:52:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	67¢	$21	0x19a48a…
06-12 16:51:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	67¢	$70	0xde8c20…
06-12 15:14:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	66¢	$35	0xe7cc95…
06-12 15:14:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	66¢	$54	0xa24e0d…
06-12 13:43:31	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	120	2¢	$2	0xd5405e…
06-12 13:43:31	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	106	2¢	$2	0x96a5b5…
06-12 13:43:31	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$1	0x409242…
06-12 09:57:58	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	306	2¢	$5	0x9a4ecd…
06-10 20:56:13	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	56	19¢	$11	0xe8be2d…
06-10 20:56:13	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	97	19¢	$18	0xcf93d4…
06-10 20:56:12	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	189	19¢	$36	0x33d5d9…
06-10 20:56:12	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	28	19¢	$5	0x0bd755…
06-10 18:34:37	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	370	19¢	$70	0xb9b2ba…
06-10 11:41:10	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	151	64¢	$97	0xfa1cd0…
06-10 11:41:10	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	62	64¢	$40	0xee45aa…
06-10 10:20:00	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	93	64¢	$60	0xff8261…
06-10 10:20:00	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	66	64¢	$42	0x29ad5c…
06-10 10:20:00	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	54	64¢	$35	0x0ed986…
06-10 05:27:45	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x8b8075…
06-10 05:27:45	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	83	99¢	$82	0x842737…
06-10 02:02:04	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x63635e…
06-10 02:02:03	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0xc897bf…
06-10 01:48:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	133	2¢	$3	0x8a0b27…
06-10 01:48:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x741b24…
06-09 21:41:10	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	186	2¢	$3	0xecfc46…
06-08 20:11:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x062737…
06-08 20:10:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xe7b160…
06-08 20:10:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x35e8b4…
06-08 20:10:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	105	66¢	$69	0x257a71…
06-08 17:52:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	66¢	$5	0x5ab837…
06-08 17:52:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	42	66¢	$28	0x359a52…
06-08 15:22:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	107	61¢	$65	0x71cb1b…
06-08 15:22:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	61¢	$37	0x36d81a…
06-08 11:24:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x88a210…
06-07 20:57:42	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	131	29¢	$38	0x7a2f62…
06-07 16:46:07	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	131	29¢	$38	0x362ebb…
06-07 12:20:13	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	197	18¢	$36	0x80c8f1…
06-07 09:08:43	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	198	18¢	$36	0xec21e5…
06-07 04:33:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	56	19¢	$10	0xd09fa9…
06-07 04:33:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	135	19¢	$25	0xa84238…
06-07 01:37:49	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	191	19¢	$36	0xb6d3f3…
06-06 19:08:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	194	30¢	$58	0xd6af55…
06-06 19:08:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	55	30¢	$16	0xc285e1…
06-06 19:06:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xf64e51…
06-06 19:05:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	244	30¢	$73	0x400ad7…
06-06 15:35:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0x28c60c…
06-06 11:02:48	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x283292…
06-06 10:31:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	73	3¢	$2	0xbacc1d…
06-06 10:31:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	27	3¢	$1	0xf6f68e…
06-06 08:04:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x4e161f…
06-06 00:37:25	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0xa80513…
06-06 00:37:25	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	96	95¢	$92	0x295abd…
06-06 00:37:24	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	29	95¢	$28	0x0b0c46…
06-05 22:43:48	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	134	96¢	$128	0x86bbe6…
06-05 17:43:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	236	50¢	$118	0xf04d79…
06-05 17:43:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	50¢	$12	0x963ca6…
06-05 17:43:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	50¢	$11	0x2e8a57…
06-05 17:41:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	282	50¢	$141	0x7c09ff…
06-04 17:15:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	32	69¢	$22	0x263331…
06-04 17:15:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	75	69¢	$51	0x764f62…
06-04 17:15:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	79	69¢	$55	0x144d98…
06-04 12:29:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x3a7409…
06-04 12:29:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	179	67¢	$120	0x52c7bb…
05-31 04:29:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	224	1¢	$2	0x935b53…
05-31 01:20:38	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	224	1¢	$2	0x3bfd15…
05-30 22:01:01	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	284	3¢	$9	0x9b5bdf…
05-30 19:17:31	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	284	3¢	$9	0xcf04c9…
05-30 01:26:26	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x6f6c83…
05-30 01:26:26	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0x1618ca…
05-30 01:26:26	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x06313f…
05-29 09:42:39	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	129	96¢	$123	0x0756f2…
05-29 04:00:44	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	259	15¢	$38	0x9ee21b…
05-28 19:35:39	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	94¢	$38	0x5f7fa1…
05-28 16:32:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	94	94¢	$88	0x7c91c8…
05-28 12:47:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	135	94¢	$127	0x564c6e…
05-28 11:43:04	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	6¢	$7	0xee49b2…
05-28 11:43:04	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	6¢	$8	0xd5c88a…
05-28 11:43:04	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	6¢	$7	0xa12276…
05-28 11:43:04	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x6aa235…
05-28 07:25:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xb1318f…
05-28 07:25:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	324	8¢	$25	0x281f46…
05-28 06:16:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	177	1¢	$2	0x955aaa…
05-28 06:16:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	104	1¢	$1	0x686eb9…
05-28 06:16:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	74	1¢	$1	0x35c649…
05-28 06:16:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	32	1¢	$0	0x10cbf2…
05-28 02:26:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	387	1¢	$5	0xc8c8fc…
05-27 18:26:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	79	92¢	$73	0xd1bff3…
05-27 18:26:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	92¢	$58	0xb3eab6…
05-27 16:53:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	93	90¢	$83	0xf9d4a7…
05-27 16:53:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	90¢	$44	0x428751…
05-27 01:19:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	383	3¢	$13	0x1e3893…
05-27 00:44:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	383	3¢	$13	0x1a0bd0…
05-25 12:13:53	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0xf5d701…
05-25 09:49:57	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	12¢	$8	0x9dbe60…
05-25 09:49:57	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x681091…
05-25 08:12:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	11¢	$20	0x1baff8…
05-24 06:06:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	47	38¢	$18	0xee9ae4…
05-24 06:05:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xee052d…
05-24 06:05:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x6ba44f…