Mealy-Leopard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$36

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

98.3%

Resolved

169

Trades

227

lifetime

Volume

$6.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$200

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-27 18:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

42% 99% +$10

Crypto

29% 100% +$21

Politics

18% 90% -$68

Tech

8% 100% +$1

Sports

4% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+185	$168	95¢	$176	+$8	10-25 10:20
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+24	$23	94¢	$23	$0	10-14 14:35
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+1	$1	68¢	$1	$0	10-27 18:37
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+1	$1	38¢	$0	-$1	10-27 14:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	3	$335	168	168	+0	No	+$0	09-06 18:20
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	3	$331	168	168	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 01:21
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$290	175	172	+3	Yes	+$2	10-25 23:46
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$249	125	125	+0	No	+$0	09-30 17:29
will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	2	$249	129	120	+9	No	+$0	09-01 03:11
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$233	234	0	+234	Yes	+$1	06-26 06:13
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	4	$219	112	112	+0	No	+$0	09-01 03:51
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$182	182	0	+182	Yes	+$0	05-30 17:09
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$168	185	0	+185	open	—	10-25 10:20
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$166	168	0	+168	Yes	+$2	09-10 12:15
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$162	162	0	+162	Yes	+$1	09-18 00:04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$161	161	0	+161	No	+$0	09-14 15:38
will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	1	$154	154	0	+154	No	+$0	08-06 11:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	2	$152	152	0	+152	No	+$0	08-22 10:22
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$152	159	0	+159	Yes	+$7	08-05 09:35
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$151	152	0	+152	No	+$1	08-17 07:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$150	151	0	+151	No	+$0	08-14 18:45
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$150	153	0	+153	No	+$3	08-12 19:13
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	08-12 00:19
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$150	151	0	+151	No	+$2	08-10 11:04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	2	$149	150	0	+150	No	+$1	09-30 19:44
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$149	151	0	+151	Yes	+$2	08-20 18:06
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$120	124	0	+124	Yes	+$4	05-21 01:49
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$118	120	0	+120	Yes	+$2	05-26 10:13
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$115	58	58	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 13:41
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$113	114	0	+114	Yes	+$1	05-05 02:08
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$103	105	0	+105	Yes	+$2	07-30 15:04
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	1	$102	103	0	+103	Yes	+$0	04-01 14:40
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$85	95	0	+95	No	-$85	06-29 14:18
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	3	$75	123	123	+0	open	—	10-14 03:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 18:37:33	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x4d84cb…
10-27 14:43:39	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x3047f6…
10-25 23:46:27	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x34bc5a…
10-25 23:08:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	18	86¢	$16	0x3ba766…
10-25 10:20:50	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	185	91¢	$168	0x12b6e8…
10-17 11:02:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xf1ea3a…
10-17 08:27:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2b15d6…
10-14 14:35:21	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	24	95¢	$23	0x9510fb…
10-14 03:37:14	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	31¢	$26	0x712f68…
10-14 03:13:55	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	31¢	$13	0x31534b…
10-12 09:56:16	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	18	81¢	$15	0xbeec43…
10-12 09:55:43	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x3b4017…
10-12 06:11:47	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	30¢	$37	0x814b8d…
10-08 14:28:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x4b394c…
10-08 05:58:02	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	34	90¢	$31	0x3a491f…
10-06 18:30:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x457ec1…
10-06 18:18:30	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0xe81e6a…
10-06 04:30:03	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	80¢	$8	0x6607d1…
10-05 11:22:01	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x2c1ed5…
10-05 10:50:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	172	84¢	$144	0x18b815…
10-05 09:17:50	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0xabea5b…
10-05 02:21:01	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	172	83¢	$143	0xfb8994…
10-04 20:42:07	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x0d26d9…
09-30 19:44:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$139	0x55ba15…
09-30 17:29:12	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0xd3036c…
09-30 14:06:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xd411c7…
09-30 03:04:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x651768…
09-29 03:25:17	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xe7cbb4…
09-28 19:13:50	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x412ef0…
09-25 00:56:17	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x7cbf0a…
09-24 20:17:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x05aadb…
09-22 11:32:48	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x5760b3…
09-18 21:18:51	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd2a157…
09-18 00:04:28	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	162	100¢	$162	0x120ed9…
09-14 15:38:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0x01b9b0…
09-11 01:25:01	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0xf486f7…
09-10 12:15:30	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	168	99¢	$166	0x38e7d0…
09-10 01:21:43	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	66	99¢	$66	0x32e831…
09-10 00:55:55	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0xe99ce8…
09-10 00:42:43	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	168	99¢	$166	0xa73413…
09-06 18:20:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	82	100¢	$82	0xbe4509…
09-06 18:20:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	87	100¢	$86	0x57df65…
09-05 12:30:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	168	99¢	$167	0x0e2411…
09-01 03:51:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x8dddf2…
09-01 03:11:06	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0xae50e7…
09-01 02:25:33	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x87de4d…
08-31 16:38:16	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xc7576b…
08-31 13:41:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	58	100¢	$58	0x362db1…
08-31 10:57:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xa835fb…
08-30 23:38:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xcc1e1c…
08-30 20:17:12	US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x188054…
08-28 16:55:27	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xc46668…
08-27 14:26:03	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x9096f4…
08-27 01:36:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xab3497…
08-26 23:18:15	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0x3939ac…
08-26 16:52:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	81	97¢	$79	0x0637c0…
08-24 11:50:16	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa251ec…
08-24 03:29:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	81	97¢	$79	0xfa6225…
08-22 10:22:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x80881e…
08-21 21:11:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0d2519…
08-20 18:06:31	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x026d3e…
08-20 18:06:18	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x1f9290…
08-18 17:14:01	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf39900…
08-17 07:08:58	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	152	99¢	$151	0xcad79d…
08-14 18:45:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	151	100¢	$150	0x41c9a9…
08-14 14:01:30	will xagusd dip to 48 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x52b59b…
08-12 19:13:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	153	98¢	$150	0xf7f62e…
08-12 00:19:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xe92c98…
08-11 04:21:03	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5bd03d…
08-10 11:04:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	151	99¢	$150	0x0f202c…
08-09 09:32:04	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4fcc0d…
08-06 13:59:27	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3e35a5…
08-06 11:08:39	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0x4291f7…
08-06 03:43:03	will ethereum reach 2700 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfbf1d6…
08-05 09:35:39	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	159	95¢	$152	0x8ad72e…
07-30 15:04:51	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x6b9426…
07-29 17:06:39	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$101	0x558b17…
07-28 18:05:28	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xac3cd7…
07-25 01:30:13	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x5a4b9a…
07-25 00:55:54	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4dabb3…
07-23 18:23:46	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe56e2f…
07-22 08:30:48	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x25b64c…
07-20 23:31:10	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2892e7…
07-20 21:02:45	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb1d30f…
07-19 15:25:51	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x158503…
07-17 11:30:45	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x506a4f…
07-17 06:06:55	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x5bd46b…
07-10 22:12:25	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1c27b4…
06-29 14:18:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	95	90¢	$85	0x44b2a0…
06-29 05:44:23	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x2e11e9…
06-28 21:16:32	will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x7aeafc…
06-28 19:09:53	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xe56b1a…
06-28 12:01:25	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x48cf9e…
06-26 06:37:28	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdbc8ee…
06-26 06:13:13	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	234	99¢	$233	0x83ce83…
05-30 17:09:46	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	182	100¢	$182	0x70ec9f…
05-26 10:13:16	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	120	99¢	$118	0xbbbd60…
05-25 03:48:29	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x5bb94a…
05-21 01:49:41	Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	124	97¢	$120	0x7413f6…
05-19 17:22:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0xe6b905…