Flawless-Hardship — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

-$3

Unrealized P&L

-$91

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

848 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$1.34K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$86

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-01

last 07-29 17:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Other

70% 58% -$96

Politics

23% 24% -$71

Sports

7% 64% +$38

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$0

Crypto

0% 0% $0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-29).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+364	$173	22¢	$82	-$91	07-01 15:07
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?	No	-4	-$4	100¢	$-4	$0	05-04 07:07
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?	Yes	-4	$0	0¢	$-0	+$0	05-04 07:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	23	$279	561	198	+364	open	—	07-01 15:07
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$79	248	0	+248	No	-$79	06-22 18:17
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	9	$77	115	0	+115	Max Holloway	+$38	07-09 19:56
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	9	$47	0	95	-95	No	$0	06-06 16:48
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	1	$47	68	0	+68	Yes	+$21	06-22 23:09
Will the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?	1	$42	0	42	-42	No	$0	05-04 07:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$38	182	0	+182	Yes	-$33	07-29 17:08
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$32	0	32	-32	No	$0	05-04 07:07
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$25	0	32	-32	No	$0	06-20 04:01
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	1	$23	230	0	+230	No	-$23	07-10 14:11
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	10	$22	0	43	-43	No	$0	06-20 04:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$21	51	0	+51	No	-$21	06-29 15:30
Will Sylbourne Sydial win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	1	$20	0	20	-20	No	$0	05-04 07:07
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	18	$17	0	35	-35	No	$0	06-20 04:01
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	3	$16	0	32	-32	No	$0	05-04 07:07
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	4	$13	0	13	-13	Yes	$0	05-07 13:59
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	6	$13	0	26	-26	No	$0	06-20 04:01
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	6	$13	0	34	-34	No	+$0	05-06 16:55
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$12	0	24	-24	No	$0	06-20 04:01
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 78°F or higher on May 5?	4	$11	0	22	-22	Yes	$0	05-04 07:07
will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	1	$11	33	0	+33	Yes	+$22	07-06 19:32
Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?	1	$11	0	11	-11	No	$0	05-04 07:07
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 17 be between 95 and 100?	5	$10	0	22	-22	No	$0	05-05 07:04
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	1	$10	0	10	-10	No	$0	06-20 04:01
Will the Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	1	$10	0	10	-10	No	$0	05-04 07:07
Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	3	$9	0	18	-18	No	$0	05-04 07:07
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 4m?	2	$9	0	18	-18	No	$0	05-04 07:07
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?	3	$9	0	17	-17	Yes	+$0	05-04 07:07
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	2	$9	0	17	-17	Yes	$0	05-04 07:07
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?	2	$9	0	17	-17	No	$0	05-04 07:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-29 17:08:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5ceb6f…
07-29 17:08:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x2acf7f…
07-29 17:08:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xfc83b6…
07-28 23:30:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	25¢	$3	0x670df8…
07-22 14:07:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	164	19¢	$31	0x9ce9d9…
07-13 14:46:08	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	60	10¢	$6	0x89cf80…
07-10 14:11:41	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	230	10¢	$23	0x220744…
07-09 19:56:02	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	99	67¢	$66	0xcc63a9…
07-09 15:17:49	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xfbf8c4…
07-09 15:17:17	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	4	67¢	$2	0x579f28…
07-09 15:16:41	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xea2fca…
07-09 15:16:35	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x68af27…
07-09 15:16:32	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x8bb162…
07-09 15:16:31	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x665209…
07-09 15:16:31	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x50e3b1…
07-09 15:16:31	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x3c7bf9…
07-06 19:32:17	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	Yes	BUY	33	33¢	$11	0x99bcc9…
07-01 15:07:50	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0xff10dc…
07-01 15:07:38	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	30¢	$27	0xe5d49c…
06-30 20:09:05	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	198	27¢	$53	0x53c2ad…
06-30 19:53:01	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	40¢	$38	0xf6d9a6…
06-30 19:53:01	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	40¢	$37	0xcbc6b2…
06-30 19:53:01	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	40¢	$37	0x5bb260…
06-30 18:54:59	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x550917…
06-30 18:54:56	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc7b0c6…
06-30 18:54:55	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc707bd…
06-30 18:54:55	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x6ba263…
06-30 18:54:55	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x10f39b…
06-30 18:43:29	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x0d1df4…
06-30 18:43:28	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x629335…
06-30 18:40:47	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xbd5d24…
06-30 18:36:50	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x888cc2…
06-30 18:36:47	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x313794…
06-30 18:08:26	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x2c618e…
06-30 18:04:55	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xf6d610…
06-30 18:03:19	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x8be29d…
06-30 16:32:58	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0xbb3966…
06-30 16:16:07	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$13	0x48b803…
06-30 15:41:44	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	43¢	$21	0x1c1929…
06-30 15:18:59	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	50¢	$30	0xc627a1…
06-29 15:30:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	45	41¢	$18	0xd2dd34…
06-22 23:09:23	Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	BUY	68	69¢	$47	0x8b1a12…
06-22 18:17:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	142	33¢	$47	0xbe1c33…
06-22 13:40:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x1d5cf2…
06-22 13:14:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	106	30¢	$32	0x0a53da…
06-20 04:02:02	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xe599af…
06-20 04:02:02	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdfd13f…
06-20 04:02:02	Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xd3a2b6…
06-20 04:02:02	Will Amanda Septimo be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xb6f467…
06-20 04:02:02	Will John Rose win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa84d51…
06-20 04:02:02	Will John Rose win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x6a431f…
06-20 04:02:01	Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0xe6350a…
06-20 04:02:01	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xd5a3be…
06-20 04:02:01	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa99ab3…
06-20 04:02:01	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x9b81e1…
06-20 04:02:01	Will Amanda Septimo be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4c649d…
06-20 04:02:01	Will Chlöe Swarbrick be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x332622…
06-20 04:02:01	Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x0ce2b0…
06-20 04:01:59	Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf309fe…
06-20 04:01:59	Will Austria finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa77afd…
06-20 04:01:59	Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x7ccbaf…
06-20 04:01:59	Will Tounde Yessoufou be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5e4b19…
06-20 04:01:59	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x51420b…
06-20 04:01:58	Will Sol Zanetti be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xad36fd…
06-20 04:01:58	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0xac78ab…
06-20 04:01:58	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x8c5da1…
06-20 04:01:58	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0x8a4bdb…
06-20 04:01:44	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	No	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x7548bb…
06-20 04:01:44	Will Cameron Kasky be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x071074…
06-20 04:01:43	Will Jake Lang be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0xec90d5…
06-20 04:01:43	Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0x9aba98…
06-20 04:01:43	Will the Republican Party win the NJ-05 House seat?	No	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x97d400…
06-20 04:01:43	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x8767fa…
06-20 04:01:43	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$1	0x7e638e…
06-20 04:01:43	Will the Democratic Party win the WY-AL House seat?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$1	0x5a0747…
06-20 04:01:43	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x1ae2bb…
06-20 04:01:43	Will Microsoft have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x16ba6f…
06-20 04:01:41	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xfe566e…
06-20 04:01:41	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xd236ff…
06-20 04:01:41	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xcb9486…
06-20 04:01:41	Will Te Pāti Māori win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$1	0x7e320a…
06-20 04:01:41	Will the Republican Party win the WI-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x304a75…
06-20 04:01:40	Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xdb6280…
06-20 04:01:40	Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0xcb3fc5…
06-20 04:01:40	Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0xca99b9…
06-20 04:01:40	Will Te Pāti Māori win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x8f2084…
06-20 04:01:40	Will the Democratic Party win the WA-08 House seat?	No	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0x610d7c…
06-20 04:01:40	Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x570b39…
06-20 04:01:40	Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x1438d3…
06-20 04:01:38	Will Jake Lang be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xdd287b…
06-20 04:01:38	Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xdc808f…
06-20 04:01:38	Will Seoul have 160mm or more of precipitation in June?	No	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xc7ca34…
06-20 04:01:38	Will the median home value in Miami be greater than $1,237,000 on June 30?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$1	0x9e66bf…
06-20 04:01:38	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$1	0x569313…
06-20 04:01:38	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x2e95ab…
06-20 04:01:38	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?	No	SELL	2	14¢	$0	0x1ca777…
06-20 04:01:37	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	SELL	2	28¢	$0	0xc79b2d…
06-20 04:01:37	Will Taylor Green be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?	No	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x59740a…
06-20 04:01:37	Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x2e6958…
06-20 04:01:37	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-02 House seat?	No	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x0c11f3…