Self-Reliant-Distribution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.31K

Hit rate

78.1%

Resolved

479

Trades

1,878

lifetime

Volume

$2.36M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.26K

Open exposure

$10.3K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-19

last 09-11 05:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Politics

43% 72% +$51,790

Other

40% 57% +$29,010

Sports

9% 47% -$4,590

Crypto

7% 62% -$13,109

Tech

1% 100% +$854

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No		+10,402	$7,970	99¢	$10.3K	+$2,307	09-05 03:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	17	$101.8K	64,857	64,857	+0	No	+$7,034	06-28 02:12
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	28	$77.7K	61,154	49,768	+11,385	Yes	+$2,279	08-08 03:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	18	$72.1K	52,062	52,042	+20	No	+$31,167	06-29 12:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$51.7K	35,672	21,284	+14,388	No	+$5,157	06-02 01:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	23	$50.7K	38,688	20,110	+18,578	No	+$5,656	08-08 03:21
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	7	$48.9K	26,464	26,464	+0	No	+$3,723	07-11 18:16
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	30	$43.1K	27,781	26,808	+973	No	-$3,964	05-25 16:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	7	$42.0K	24,027	24,027	+0	No	+$5,937	05-01 05:49
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	35	$40.9K	21,972	21,972	-0	No	+$3,014	08-10 04:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	5	$40.3K	26,257	26,257	+0	open	—	08-04 01:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	12	$39.5K	48,989	0	+48,989	No	+$9,518	09-05 03:17
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	24	$39.3K	51,680	15,228	+36,453	No	+$7,823	03-31 15:09
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	10	$38.7K	48,127	614	+47,513	No	+$9,401	08-18 10:00
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	14	$38.5K	21,917	21,917	+0	No	+$5,120	08-01 05:59
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	24	$35.2K	28,265	28,265	+0	Yes	+$5,956	08-06 21:39
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	9	$32.2K	21,820	13,499	+8,321	Yes	+$1,497	07-29 06:51
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	15	$32.0K	16,524	16,524	+0	No	+$985	08-18 09:57
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	127	$31.5K	33,660	0	+33,660	Yes	+$2,139	01-22 04:14
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$31.1K	50,000	50,000	+0	No	+$7,788	07-13 04:32
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	21	$29.8K	42,838	10,710	+32,129	No	+$23,725	08-21 04:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$28.8K	14,582	14,582	+0	No	+$306	04-29 23:41
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	6	$28.2K	30,664	2,178	+28,486	No	+$1,414	09-11 01:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	9	$27.6K	46,939	11,765	+35,175	No	-$16,664	09-11 02:06
Iran leadership change by April 30?	3	$26.8K	14,258	14,258	+0	No	+$573	05-01 05:49
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$26.6K	80,560	80,560	+0	No	-$1,698	07-15 14:08
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	13	$25.7K	18,109	18,109	+0	No	+$2,944	03-24 05:00
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	13	$25.6K	31,634	15,500	+16,134	Yes	-$13,417	03-31 11:03
us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	11	$25.0K	21,435	5,573	+15,862	No	+$1,830	08-01 02:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$22.5K	12,000	12,000	+0	No	+$1,368	03-31 09:39
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	12	$22.5K	22,347	2,833	+19,514	No	+$1,959	08-15 16:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 05:03:01	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	3,405	98¢	$3,330	0xe503e7…
09-11 04:13:00	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	1,867	98¢	$1,826	0xb3c372…
09-11 02:06:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,411	38¢	$4,716	0x34dd05…
09-11 02:05:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	452	37¢	$167	0xa99b16…
09-11 02:03:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	255	37¢	$94	0x140c94…
09-11 02:03:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xac31e5…
09-11 02:03:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,050	37¢	$758	0xde8fb4…
09-11 01:22:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	2,531	93¢	$2,344	0xa7745d…
09-11 01:22:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	4,869	92¢	$4,465	0xd5ad57…
09-11 01:22:06	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	1,681	98¢	$1,644	0x34727b…
09-11 01:22:00	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	3,997	97¢	$3,897	0xe2a6fb…
09-11 01:18:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,000	37¢	$3,330	0xa173a5…
09-10 13:56:19	LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	7,679	9¢	$685	0x539e1b…
09-10 00:39:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11,000	46¢	$5,060	0x8a4a50…
09-10 00:12:19	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	SELL	5,475	24¢	$1,339	0x8adcfe…
09-09 12:49:07	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xcd90fd…
09-09 12:48:28	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2,154	94¢	$2,021	0xcdf939…
09-09 12:48:22	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	817	92¢	$754	0xe1f988…
09-09 12:28:22	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,176	89¢	$1,046	0xc44f0e…
09-09 12:25:01	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11,438	88¢	$10,043	0x11d42f…
09-09 12:18:57	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	4,000	46¢	$1,840	0x28820e…
09-09 12:18:21	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	5,000	48¢	$2,400	0xd552ed…
09-09 12:18:10	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	4,154	41¢	$1,696	0xdfc495…
09-09 12:16:57	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,210	86¢	$1,037	0xe78381…
09-09 12:16:39	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	656	94¢	$617	0xfcee95…
09-07 14:42:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	SELL	2,000	87¢	$1,740	0x23f5bf…
09-06 00:17:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x655845…
09-05 21:18:09	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	275	77¢	$212	0xbe4289…
09-05 13:52:54	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	49	77¢	$38	0x1965ce…
09-05 13:49:52	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xb2fa7a…
09-05 12:37:36	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	184	77¢	$142	0x2d4ca7…
09-05 06:16:57	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	167	77¢	$129	0x72d94d…
09-05 06:16:57	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	77¢	$26	0x566131…
09-05 06:16:54	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x42a1aa…
09-05 06:16:52	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	77¢	$20	0x171597…
09-05 06:16:52	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	122	77¢	$94	0x0a5e0d…
09-05 04:17:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	559	87¢	$486	0x8043ad…
09-05 04:09:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x8ea734…
09-05 03:40:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	16	87¢	$14	0xd8cdd1…
09-05 03:20:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xa4672a…
09-05 03:20:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	1,417	87¢	$1,232	0x2e352a…
09-05 03:17:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,200	82¢	$984	0x516a5e…
09-05 03:16:58	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	15,082	13¢	$1,951	0x212b6a…
09-05 03:13:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	No	SELL	5,027	15¢	$733	0xbaa4f8…
09-05 03:11:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,402	77¢	$7,970	0xa944d6…
09-04 08:28:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	168	78¢	$131	0x92231d…
09-04 08:28:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x72748a…
09-04 08:28:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	158	78¢	$123	0xcf36ca…
09-04 08:28:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	994	78¢	$776	0xcf4500…
09-03 21:36:37	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0xc03164…
09-03 09:08:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	2,562	14¢	$359	0x054b31…
09-03 08:56:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	53	14¢	$7	0x1f1940…
09-03 08:38:07	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x9970e1…
09-03 08:35:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0xa7a8fa…
09-03 08:16:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0xd723da…
09-03 08:03:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	59	14¢	$8	0x975ca7…
09-03 07:52:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	277	14¢	$39	0x31a2c2…
09-03 01:06:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	11,632	16¢	$1,858	0x1a1ecb…
09-03 01:06:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	5,477	15¢	$822	0xfed699…
09-03 01:03:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9,027	91¢	$8,215	0xddc6bd…
09-02 15:41:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	10,000	96¢	$9,640	0x277786…
09-02 15:41:00	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	11,085	96¢	$10,668	0x613833…
09-02 15:40:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7,163	81¢	$5,802	0x5c5f91…
09-02 15:39:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7,732	90¢	$6,959	0xe9801b…
09-01 16:08:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	80	78¢	$62	0x8669de…
09-01 16:06:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	260	78¢	$203	0x33023e…
09-01 15:20:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	140	78¢	$109	0x9a529c…
09-01 13:57:30	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	475	91¢	$432	0x13c678…
09-01 10:34:42	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0xceb2c9…
09-01 10:21:51	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	78¢	$780	0x3ecc3e…
09-01 09:36:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7,448	82¢	$6,107	0xd0fdd5…
09-01 07:29:07	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0x5eeb3a…
09-01 07:27:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	34	91¢	$31	0xdd0a47…
09-01 04:24:10	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	2,404	91¢	$2,188	0x9021bb…
09-01 04:23:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19,372	81¢	$15,692	0xb552ed…
08-31 05:22:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11,806	79¢	$9,327	0xcbd813…
08-31 05:19:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11,765	46¢	$5,465	0xccc663…
08-27 04:58:48	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	No	BUY	3,430	18¢	$617	0x861412…
08-27 04:58:13	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	2,000	85¢	$1,700	0x5b5ce1…
08-25 14:11:49	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0x9ee16e…
08-25 08:20:28	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	No	BUY	3,000	26¢	$780	0xbcd089…
08-25 04:52:21	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	4,253	93¢	$3,955	0xfe36d3…
08-25 04:51:52	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	No	BUY	6,832	27¢	$1,845	0xe0c124…
08-25 04:51:12	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	6,000	93¢	$5,580	0x01fecb…
08-21 15:03:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11,765	68¢	$8,000	0x8d9326…
08-21 09:29:04	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	2,030	97¢	$1,973	0xbd69b1…
08-21 09:28:25	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	5,232	93¢	$4,866	0x1f9642…
08-21 09:27:52	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	1,752	97¢	$1,698	0x6952e6…
08-21 04:15:33	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0x167cbd…
08-21 04:14:57	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	3,700	93¢	$3,441	0x32b31c…
08-21 04:13:49	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	1,060	92¢	$975	0x1128e4…
08-21 04:12:43	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	6,236	94¢	$5,869	0xfee878…
08-21 04:12:43	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	151	94¢	$143	0x29225e…
08-21 04:12:22	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	10,710	100¢	$10,695	0xe8d26d…
08-18 10:03:48	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	3,904	82¢	$3,200	0x0a2c97…
08-18 10:03:00	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	2,963	80¢	$2,370	0x88e372…
08-18 10:00:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	1,400	90¢	$1,260	0x6d6af2…
08-18 09:59:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	10,000	90¢	$9,000	0xb485ca…
08-18 09:59:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	774	94¢	$728	0x2620ec…
08-18 09:57:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	16,524	100¢	$16,507	0xe3510c…