Darling-Texture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$110

Unrealized P&L

-$24

Hit rate

90.0%

Resolved

126

Trades

152

lifetime

Volume

$13.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$87

Open exposure

$59

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-24 09:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Other

52% 78% +$127

Tech

19% 91% +$147

Crypto

14% 92% -$51

Politics

8% 44% -$302

Sports

7% 54% -$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+55	$38	82¢	$45	+$7	10-05 20:11
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+58	$15	12¢	$7	-$8	09-05 12:35
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	+68	$15	5¢	$3	-$12	08-07 09:17
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+100	$15	3¢	$3	-$12	09-05 12:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 620 639	1	$686	699	0	+699	No	+$13	01-04 03:10
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$444	452	0	+452	Yes	+$9	03-26 10:42
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$439	440	0	+440	No	+$0	05-02 11:15
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$401	408	0	+408	No	+$7	07-22 08:06
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$396	397	0	+397	No	+$1	02-03 05:35
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$393	393	0	+393	No	+$0	07-11 11:16
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 240 259	1	$381	382	0	+382	No	+$1	03-08 06:04
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	1	$364	365	0	+365	Yes	+$1	02-03 05:36
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$329	294	36	+258	No	+$1	04-21 11:11
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$323	324	0	+324	No	+$0	06-04 11:27
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	1	$318	319	0	+319	No	+$0	08-07 09:20
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	1	$275	278	0	+278	Yes	+$3	03-06 04:38
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$275	276	0	+276	No	+$1	09-05 12:38
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$250	253	0	+253	No	+$3	02-11 02:45
Superform FDV above $400M one day after launch?	1	$240	240	0	+240	No	+$0	02-11 02:46
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$234	246	0	+246	Yes	+$12	01-12 05:45
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	1	$234	248	0	+248	Yes	+$14	01-12 05:46
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$228	200	31	+169	Yes	+$2	01-27 03:58
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	1	$225	225	0	+225	No	+$0	03-26 10:41
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	3	$208	178	30	+148	No	+$0	10-18 14:26
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$199	101	100	+0	Yes	+$1	05-18 04:17
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$195	198	0	+198	Yes	+$3	01-12 05:46
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$185	192	0	+192	Yes	+$7	06-14 09:52
will the us next strike iran on february 1 2026 et	2	$156	80	80	+0	No	+$4	02-03 05:34
will bitcoin reach 105k in february 2026	2	$153	77	77	+0	No	+$0	02-25 08:21
will ethereum reach 3400 in february 2026	1	$149	149	0	+149	No	+$0	02-23 15:58
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$147	133	133	+0	No	+$107	03-26 05:14
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$132	168	0	+168	Yes	-$132	02-27 14:47
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$127	76	76	+0	Yes	+$25	01-31 14:54
will google have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$118	126	0	+126	Yes	+$8	01-12 05:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 09:41:44	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	62¢	$36	0x9ec5e4…
10-18 14:26:51	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	36	41¢	$15	0x6a229d…
10-18 14:26:33	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x700c56…
10-16 11:08:49	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	63	56¢	$35	0xffe6d7…
10-16 11:08:27	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	51	29¢	$15	0x8b2d37…
10-14 18:28:54	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	52	28¢	$14	0xebafe2…
10-14 18:28:34	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x7c7b28…
10-05 20:12:46	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	178	100¢	$178	0xa172fc…
10-05 20:12:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0xcee85e…
10-05 20:11:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	46	83¢	$38	0xc0bc4a…
10-05 20:11:38	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	69¢	$38	0xc727d1…
10-05 20:11:26	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	67¢	$38	0x2012b3…
10-05 20:11:10	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$51	0x267fa0…
10-05 20:10:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?	No	BUY	54	95¢	$51	0x1249d0…
10-05 20:10:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0x0831bd…
10-05 20:10:11	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x2f13d6…
09-05 12:38:06	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	276	100¢	$275	0x8bc8ba…
09-05 12:37:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67	49¢	$33	0x309d80…
09-05 12:37:16	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	56	71¢	$40	0xbc9d8f…
09-05 12:36:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	No	BUY	57	93¢	$53	0x435366…
09-05 12:36:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	55	96¢	$53	0x0a831e…
09-05 12:36:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	87¢	$53	0x6e48b6…
09-05 12:35:49	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd84893…
09-05 12:35:28	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	26¢	$15	0x4414b5…
08-10 16:07:37	Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?	No	BUY	84	30¢	$25	0x89d00f…
08-07 09:20:09	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	319	100¢	$318	0xb41ed1…
08-07 09:19:27	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	89¢	$35	0x807519…
08-07 09:19:15	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	79¢	$35	0x8e0ecb…
08-07 09:19:01	Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	47	75¢	$35	0xaf681d…
08-07 09:18:48	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	38	93¢	$35	0x7634e9…
08-07 09:18:34	Will Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors?	Yes	BUY	75	94¢	$70	0x29eb23…
08-07 09:18:19	will bitcoin reach 75k in august 2026	No	BUY	74	94¢	$70	0x71e32b…
08-07 09:18:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0x236dd8…
08-07 09:17:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	90¢	$70	0x43b863…
08-07 09:17:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xcc1012…
08-07 09:17:09	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0x4fbc17…
08-07 09:16:19	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xfafcb7…
08-07 09:15:39	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	No	SELL	54	99¢	$53	0x4e8873…
07-22 08:06:57	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	408	98¢	$401	0xc2bcbd…
07-22 08:06:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	64	75¢	$48	0x3cc65e…
07-11 11:16:10	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	393	100¢	$393	0x46d4c3…
07-11 11:15:46	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	No	BUY	54	99¢	$53	0xd74e08…
07-11 11:15:32	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	72	98¢	$70	0x2d5974…
07-11 11:15:16	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	75	93¢	$70	0x01f5ae…
07-11 11:15:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	94¢	$70	0x45bb2c…
07-11 11:14:46	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x6d1ac4…
07-11 11:14:31	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0x562dda…
07-11 11:14:19	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x34d755…
07-11 11:14:07	ufc pad ben8 2026 07 11	Benoît Saint Denis	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x8116db…
06-14 09:52:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	192	96¢	$185	0xe41178…
06-04 11:27:39	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	324	100¢	$323	0x37423c…
06-04 11:27:13	will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	No	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0x54c085…
06-04 11:26:52	will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	No	BUY	61	96¢	$59	0x8b5a63…
06-04 11:26:16	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	82	72¢	$59	0xf6ec92…
06-04 11:25:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	77	90¢	$69	0x4a59d2…
06-04 11:25:28	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	63¢	$69	0x04101f…
06-04 11:25:12	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x39500e…
06-04 11:25:00	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	82¢	$79	0x2eb90a…
06-04 11:24:42	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	205	17¢	$35	0x2013a0…
05-30 07:39:49	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	85	41¢	$35	0x858329…
05-18 04:18:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	83	97¢	$80	0xc84007…
05-18 04:18:16	Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x5f12c4…
05-18 04:17:24	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe325fc…
05-02 11:15:42	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	440	100¢	$439	0x189ddc…
05-02 11:15:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xdc3252…
05-02 11:14:30	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x21f283…
05-02 11:14:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	80¢	$69	0xe2bdd1…
05-02 11:13:38	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	87	79¢	$69	0xfa53aa…
05-02 11:13:02	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	84	94¢	$79	0xbd07de…
05-02 11:12:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	94	95¢	$89	0x8f756b…
05-02 11:12:10	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	101	98¢	$99	0x434b71…
05-02 11:11:16	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	135	26¢	$35	0x418ed8…
05-02 11:10:50	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0x875d61…
04-21 11:11:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	73¢	$36	0x04bc6c…
04-21 11:11:16	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x238a3c…
04-19 05:25:12	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	159	44¢	$70	0x7d71f7…
04-19 05:24:30	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x4c2bb2…
04-14 05:49:51	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	41	69¢	$29	0x263193…
04-14 05:49:33	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x43beff…
04-14 05:49:09	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 liv1	No	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xc33ee1…
04-14 05:48:47	nba por phx 2026 04 14	Suns	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xee447f…
04-14 05:48:21	nba mia cha 2026 04 14	Hornets	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x214722…
04-07 14:49:37	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	294	100¢	$293	0xd245ff…
04-07 14:48:35	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x6042b8…
04-07 14:48:13	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0xa894df…
04-07 14:47:27	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	Yes	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0xb6deff…
04-07 14:46:43	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0x40f556…
04-04 06:16:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	95¢	$54	0x7a756e…
04-04 06:16:05	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	109	98¢	$107	0xeb10d0…
04-04 06:15:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	112	96¢	$107	0x26bf46…
04-04 06:15:21	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	73	97¢	$71	0xfec2a4…
04-04 06:15:01	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	91	78¢	$71	0x5d93fb…
04-02 04:38:49	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	88	17¢	$15	0xc8be7a…
04-02 04:38:39	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	65	23¢	$15	0x079d22…
04-02 04:38:25	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90	78¢	$70	0x892dab…
03-26 10:42:05	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	339	100¢	$339	0xd85525…
03-26 10:41:41	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	225	100¢	$225	0x06f374…
03-26 05:14:01	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	133	95¢	$127	0xd763ae…
03-09 11:07:09	will saudi aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x4e233f…
03-09 11:06:25	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0xcda16f…