Vigorous-Dream — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$399

Unrealized P&L

+$15

Hit rate

88.9%

Resolved

386

Trades

1,635

lifetime

Volume

$426.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$261

Open exposure

$764

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 07:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 127 days

Categories

Other

44% 59% -$670

Politics

44% 74% +$211

Crypto

12% 87% +$76

Tech

0% 58% -$18

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	+700	$672	98¢	$686	+$14	08-22 08:06
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	+59	$56	96¢	$57	+$0	10-22 03:35
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+22	$21	96¢	$21	+$0	08-22 04:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	19	$41.9K	21,350	20,987	+363	No	+$21	03-11 10:18
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	57	$37.7K	17,961	20,361	-2,400	No	+$171	03-01 01:47
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	19	$22.7K	15,760	7,212	+8,548	No	+$192	01-31 12:35
Will the US strike Iran next?	18	$19.6K	11,759	7,850	+3,909	No	+$15	02-04 05:19
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	5	$18.4K	8,000	10,450	-2,450	No	+$0	01-21 10:53
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	6	$14.3K	7,200	7,200	+0	No	-$4	02-14 02:21
us strikes iran by january 28 2026 117 856 648 735 438	9	$13.0K	8,000	5,000	+3,000	No	+$5	01-29 03:13
will gta 6 cost 100	36	$11.0K	5,508	5,508	+0	No	+$6	02-28 06:55
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	3	$7.5K	5,000	2,500	+2,500	No	+$5	01-31 04:44
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	17	$7.5K	3,450	4,250	-800	No	+$20	02-15 09:42
si hit 150 high jan 2026	11	$7.3K	3,700	3,700	+0	No	+$36	01-30 12:04
bitcoin above 94k on january 5	2	$7.1K	3,576	3,576	+0	No	+$36	01-05 16:59
us strikes iran by january 27 2026 458 884 547 617 932	10	$6.4K	3,966	2,466	+1,500	No	+$23	01-28 02:40
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	26	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$3	02-03 18:58
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	12	$5.6K	2,836	2,836	+0	No	+$23	02-27 07:39
bitcoin above 84k on february 2	11	$5.5K	2,752	2,752	+0	No	+$4	02-02 03:19
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	16	$5.5K	3,036	3,036	+0	No	+$24	02-15 13:05
Will the US strike Iran next?	3	$5.0K	2,500	2,500	+0	No	+$2	02-11 11:13
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	51	$4.5K	2,820	2,820	+0	Yes	+$40	02-27 15:35
us strikes iraq by february 28	34	$4.4K	3,459	3,458	+0	Yes	-$1,038	02-28 10:27
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	4	$4.4K	3,250	1,250	+2,000	No	+$13	02-20 00:31
Will the US strike Mexico next?	8	$4.3K	4,300	0	+4,300	No	+$16	02-11 14:11
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	13	$4.3K	2,600	2,600	+0	No	+$13	02-06 12:02
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	4	$4.1K	2,108	2,108	+0	No	+$62	01-31 04:19
Will the US strike Iran next?	4	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$2	02-19 16:04
will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$0	02-13 03:52
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	7	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$38	01-29 15:55
will silver si hit low 25 by end of february 859 949 933 273 811 757 923 129	6	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$18	02-02 17:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	9	$3.6K	3,217	500	+2,717	No	+$75	01-31 10:48
will the us strike somalia next 656	37	$3.6K	1,800	1,800	+0	Yes	+$4	01-25 02:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 07:22:10	Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	110	98¢	$108	0x99ab29…
10-22 03:35:50	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0xbdbfbf…
10-22 03:16:44	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0x3cfcb1…
10-22 03:09:51	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$2	0x20bad6…
10-22 02:55:14	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xbe2ecf…
10-22 02:54:51	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xb98f57…
10-22 02:54:14	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x0cda6c…
10-22 02:53:48	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6df080…
10-22 02:53:03	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x0c74cf…
10-22 02:52:47	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x2ead66…
10-22 02:51:54	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xc39c57…
10-22 02:51:26	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x097615…
10-22 02:51:17	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x85fc40…
10-20 09:57:21	Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x0ecc9e…
10-20 09:57:18	Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0x753956…
10-15 20:34:36	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	347	0¢	$1	0x545f9c…
10-15 20:34:02	Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	400	1¢	$6	0x46c4e2…
10-15 20:32:45	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	53	1¢	$0	0x1d8104…
10-15 15:59:23	Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	140	2¢	$2	0x8bcb7f…
10-15 11:22:25	Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x28f5c8…
10-15 10:47:33	Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0xdacbde…
10-15 10:47:27	Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x281dd2…
10-15 10:47:15	Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x4f331c…
10-15 10:43:07	Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xa39233…
10-15 06:23:38	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0xcdbb9a…
10-10 12:24:19	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x747240…
10-10 11:59:55	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x873fa1…
10-10 11:58:57	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$25	0xda37a8…
09-29 10:56:03	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x621faf…
09-20 21:09:47	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	370	1¢	$2	0x0f1717…
09-20 21:09:04	Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	400	0¢	$2	0x17e2c5…
09-20 21:03:59	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x1a5324…
09-20 21:03:20	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xef9273…
09-19 14:27:23	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x080c19…
09-19 07:37:21	Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xce9640…
09-19 07:35:13	Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$6	0xd33a01…
09-19 07:34:54	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$6	0x024857…
09-15 13:35:33	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xd6a0a8…
09-14 06:06:18	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x187c4e…
09-04 21:29:30	Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xfa3c36…
09-04 19:07:19	Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x0df190…
09-03 11:40:48	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	580	93¢	$540	0x2a0086…
09-03 11:25:18	Valantis FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x50e930…
09-03 11:24:48	Perena FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	37	92¢	$34	0x6c378b…
08-24 09:49:57	Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	59	98¢	$58	0x7bcc61…
08-22 08:06:16	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	700	96¢	$672	0xd7058a…
08-22 04:27:06	Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0x70d7b3…
08-22 01:48:06	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xce54fe…
08-22 00:28:55	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	48	94¢	$45	0xe98182…
08-22 00:27:15	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xccd167…
08-22 00:27:10	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x8147bf…
08-22 00:27:09	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	18	94¢	$16	0xaf7686…
08-19 18:57:00	Printr FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xf822eb…
08-18 18:10:39	Printr FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x2f34e7…
08-17 23:15:22	Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0xc45856…
08-17 19:51:40	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	352	96¢	$339	0x9b3be7…
08-17 12:04:57	Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xd3f834…
08-17 10:35:49	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xf9d3eb…
08-17 09:38:40	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x449af6…
08-12 15:13:18	Perena FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	37	90¢	$33	0x593ebc…
08-07 17:01:06	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xb908f7…
08-05 19:04:51	Valantis FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x466804…
08-04 17:30:17	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	23	1¢	$0	0xb6046c…
08-04 17:29:48	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x428390…
08-04 17:28:18	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	77	0¢	$0	0xe22ae0…
08-04 10:36:47	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xbfd838…
07-23 19:28:39	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x00f5bd…
07-22 19:57:00	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	400	83¢	$332	0x8d1b32…
07-21 17:49:21	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0x4aff7d…
07-21 17:49:19	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	58	87¢	$50	0x56185c…
07-21 17:49:19	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	216	87¢	$188	0x0c2937…
07-20 16:08:00	amzn up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xeead7a…
07-19 08:04:52	will intel say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260717163650071	Yes	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x318d97…
07-19 01:51:34	will intel say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260717163650071	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$37	0xc54f7c…
07-18 11:16:37	Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by Shakira at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?	Yes	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0xfc1344…
07-18 11:10:06	Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by Shakira at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?	No	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x36d448…
07-18 09:57:25	Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by Shakira at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?	No	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xcaec5c…
07-18 09:45:09	Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by Shakira at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xd6f33c…
07-18 08:32:31	Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x14b2e3…
07-18 08:31:39	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb3ab71…
07-16 10:06:49	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x4d9657…
07-15 03:10:38	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x1b61a4…
07-15 01:14:58	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x295eae…
07-12 10:22:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0xfa64e5…
07-10 17:15:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x0add89…
07-10 14:16:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xc9c9f4…
07-09 21:25:40	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 btts	Yes	SELL	12	29¢	$3	0x6a0584…
07-09 21:25:38	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 btts	Yes	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0xbcdea7…
07-09 19:57:44	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 btts	Yes	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x5e1951…
07-09 19:57:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x22b56f…
07-09 18:25:43	wti up or down on july 9 2026	Down	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0x38021a…
07-09 18:00:46	wti up or down on july 9 2026	Down	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xe38812…
07-08 21:48:59	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	191	91¢	$173	0xef0627…
07-08 21:10:34	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x4a4325…
07-08 21:08:08	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0x7268e1…
07-08 20:59:08	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x2d7cca…
07-08 01:42:32	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0bbb01…
07-07 19:44:59	msft up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x96be30…
07-07 19:43:53	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xf5942e…
06-29 16:26:17	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0x81092c…