Vigorous-Dream — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,388

lifetime

Volume

$410.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$295

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-07 17:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

45% — —

Other

43% — —

Crypto

11% 100% +$0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	19	$41.9K	21,350	20,987	+363	open	—	03-11 10:18
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	57	$37.7K	17,961	20,361	-2,400	open	—	03-01 01:47
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	19	$22.7K	15,760	7,212	+8,548	open	—	01-31 12:35
Will the US strike Iran next?	18	$19.6K	11,759	7,850	+3,909	open	—	02-04 05:19
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	5	$18.4K	8,000	10,450	-2,450	open	—	01-21 10:53
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	6	$14.3K	7,200	7,200	+0	open	—	02-14 02:21
us strikes iran by january 28 2026 117 856 648 735 438	9	$13.0K	8,000	5,000	+3,000	open	—	01-29 03:13
will gta 6 cost 100	36	$11.0K	5,508	5,508	+0	open	—	02-28 06:55
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	3	$7.5K	5,000	2,500	+2,500	open	—	01-31 04:44
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	17	$7.5K	3,450	4,250	-800	open	—	02-15 09:42
si hit 150 high jan 2026	11	$7.3K	3,700	3,700	+0	open	—	01-30 12:04
bitcoin above 94k on january 5	2	$7.1K	3,576	3,576	+0	open	—	01-05 16:59
us strikes iran by january 27 2026 458 884 547 617 932	10	$6.4K	3,966	2,466	+1,500	open	—	01-28 02:40
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	26	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	02-03 18:58
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	12	$5.6K	2,836	2,836	+0	open	—	02-27 07:39
bitcoin above 84k on february 2	11	$5.5K	2,752	2,752	+0	open	—	02-02 03:19
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	16	$5.5K	3,036	3,036	+0	open	—	02-15 13:05
Will the US strike Iran next?	3	$5.0K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	02-11 11:13
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	51	$4.5K	2,820	2,820	+0	open	—	02-27 15:35
us strikes iraq by february 28	34	$4.4K	3,459	3,458	+0	open	—	02-28 10:27
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	4	$4.4K	3,250	1,250	+2,000	open	—	02-20 00:31
Will the US strike Mexico next?	8	$4.3K	4,300	0	+4,300	open	—	02-11 14:11
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	13	$4.3K	2,600	2,600	+0	open	—	02-06 12:02
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	4	$4.1K	2,108	2,108	+0	open	—	01-31 04:19
Will the US strike Iran next?	4	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-19 16:04
will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-13 03:52
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	7	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	01-29 15:55
will silver si hit low 25 by end of february 859 949 933 273 811 757 923 129	6	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-02 17:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	9	$3.6K	3,217	500	+2,717	open	—	01-31 10:48
will the us strike somalia next 656	37	$3.6K	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	01-25 02:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 17:01:06	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xb908f7…
08-05 19:04:51	Valantis FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x466804…
08-04 17:30:17	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	23	1¢	$0	0xb6046c…
08-04 17:29:48	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x428390…
08-04 17:28:18	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	77	0¢	$0	0xe22ae0…
08-04 10:36:47	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xbfd838…
07-22 19:57:00	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	400	83¢	$332	0x8d1b32…
07-21 17:49:21	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0x4aff7d…
07-21 17:49:19	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	58	87¢	$50	0x56185c…
07-21 17:49:19	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	216	87¢	$188	0x0c2937…
07-20 16:08:00	amzn up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xeead7a…
07-19 08:04:52	will intel say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260717163650071	Yes	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x318d97…
07-19 01:51:34	will intel say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260717163650071	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$37	0xc54f7c…
07-16 10:06:49	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x4d9657…
07-15 03:10:38	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x1b61a4…
07-15 01:14:58	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x295eae…
07-12 10:22:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0xfa64e5…
07-10 14:16:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xc9c9f4…
07-09 21:25:40	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 btts	Yes	SELL	12	29¢	$3	0x6a0584…
07-09 21:25:38	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 btts	Yes	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0xbcdea7…
07-09 19:57:44	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 btts	Yes	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x5e1951…
07-09 18:25:43	wti up or down on july 9 2026	Down	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0x38021a…
07-09 18:00:46	wti up or down on july 9 2026	Down	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xe38812…
07-08 21:48:59	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	191	91¢	$173	0xef0627…
07-08 21:10:34	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x4a4325…
07-08 21:08:08	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0x7268e1…
07-08 20:59:08	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x2d7cca…
07-07 19:44:59	msft up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x96be30…
06-29 16:26:17	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0x81092c…
06-29 12:17:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	36	76¢	$27	0x956279…
06-29 12:10:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	18	76¢	$14	0xdd85d6…
06-29 11:41:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	14	76¢	$11	0xe4cbce…
06-29 11:02:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	31	76¢	$24	0xb80e56…
06-29 06:17:37	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x838d06…
06-29 00:18:23	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x59c9f3…
06-28 17:16:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x2722b7…
06-28 15:33:11	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xbfe192…
06-28 10:40:14	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xc5f4e9…
06-28 08:23:49	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xda367b…
06-28 08:20:29	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x125f7a…
06-28 08:19:25	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x8d3eae…
06-28 05:05:19	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x6241e5…
06-28 03:53:34	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xaca51e…
06-28 01:27:25	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xedff84…
06-27 21:03:35	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xcda403…
06-27 14:34:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x43d046…
06-27 12:35:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x745ff6…
06-27 12:33:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xb38df4…
06-27 10:28:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	73	74¢	$54	0x82bf0a…
06-27 10:15:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xcc998a…
06-27 09:58:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	22	74¢	$16	0x672873…
06-26 21:43:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x53357e…
06-26 21:13:25	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x3f6266…
06-26 21:08:11	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	40¢	$39	0x66e91f…
06-26 21:06:17	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x52396a…
06-26 19:22:05	will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	93	0¢	$0	0x905437…
06-26 19:14:19	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x3bbc6f…
06-26 19:11:11	will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	93	0¢	$0	0x27fb74…
06-26 18:54:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x7f3951…
06-26 18:34:32	wti up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x0e8697…
06-26 18:25:40	wti up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x93c32c…
06-26 18:10:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x2722d6…
06-26 17:35:29	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x4d22ea…
06-26 17:34:28	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x653119…
06-26 17:15:19	will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x43c4f4…
06-26 17:11:47	will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x42d2a3…
06-25 20:10:44	will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x03ede8…
06-25 20:10:16	will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	41	2¢	$1	0x04be85…
06-25 17:07:47	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x6e9a42…
06-25 16:59:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x37d6b8…
06-25 16:37:10	wti up or down on june 25 2026	Up	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x54f43a…
06-25 16:35:41	wti up or down on june 25 2026	Up	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x6f7343…
06-25 16:03:23	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?	No	SELL	650	100¢	$649	0x685c57…
06-07 15:59:45	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?	No	BUY	400	99¢	$397	0xc0b675…
06-07 05:21:55	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf04c26…
06-03 13:11:03	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0637d2…
06-01 05:37:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xd7c887…
06-01 05:25:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xcb66a4…
05-28 00:55:44	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	BUY	700	100¢	$699	0xa112c8…
05-26 01:34:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0x5ce31a…
05-25 12:45:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0xcd2be3…
05-25 02:46:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xe9bb3b…
05-25 01:13:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0xc70eca…
05-25 01:08:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x07f620…
05-23 04:11:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0x86bc27…
05-23 03:01:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x541fa2…
05-19 05:31:45	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	No	BUY	63	99¢	$62	0xaf356c…
05-19 04:49:28	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x860fec…
05-18 21:37:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xc386bf…
05-18 09:55:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x50b5ce…
05-18 06:18:47	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x2868c9…
05-18 06:14:28	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xadcfa1…
05-18 06:10:35	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4021f1…
05-18 06:10:34	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2137ec…
05-18 06:10:30	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xb00e2a…
05-18 05:25:58	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x9dc4c3…
05-18 02:12:00	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x04ab09…
05-18 00:49:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	999	100¢	$996	0xfa9e6e…
05-18 00:27:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	164	100¢	$163	0x49a8bc…
05-09 03:28:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	29¢	$116	0x5e8d93…