Sentimental-Investigation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.25K

Unrealized P&L

-$770

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,595

lifetime

Volume

$36.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$1.70K

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 11-06 11:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Politics

52% 59% +$1,530

Other

41% 53% +$1,208

Crypto

5% 57% +$527

Sports

1% 25% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	+12,414	$589	4¢	$453	-$136	11-06 07:12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	+3,628	$751	12¢	$435	-$315	11-04 16:49
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+4,581	$491	8¢	$389	-$101	11-04 17:32
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+2,741	$258	6¢	$178	-$80	11-05 22:52
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-1,213	-$70	11¢	$-127	-$58	07-25 21:48
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,334	$200	9¢	$120	-$80	11-06 11:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	140	$3.0K	4,958	4,908	+50	No	+$308	04-12 23:33
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	61	$2.6K	8,650	5,022	+3,628	open	—	11-04 16:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	41	$2.6K	5,292	6,505	-1,213	open	—	07-25 21:48
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	64	$2.5K	3,902	3,902	+0	No	+$109	05-26 18:37
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	16	$1.8K	1,319	1,319	+0	Yes	+$225	04-05 03:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	16	$1.2K	1,330	910	+420	Yes	-$124	04-07 19:40
nothing ever happens khamenei	6	$1.2K	1,060	1,060	+0	No	+$894	02-28 21:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	28	$1.1K	1,367	1,568	-201	No	+$134	05-22 20:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	21	$929	2,038	2,080	-42	Yes	-$69	04-23 00:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?	12	$917	1,139	1,123	+16	Yes	-$19	04-07 13:37
Iran leadership change by December 31?	40	$900	5,440	859	+4,581	open	—	11-04 17:32
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	47	$838	1,375	1,375	+0	No	+$118	04-13 01:45
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	84	$774	4,838	4,838	+0	No	-$155	11-01 03:58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	20	$772	1,178	1,178	+0	open	—	10-07 03:05
Iran leadership change by November 30?	28	$707	13,029	615	+12,414	open	—	11-06 07:12
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	29	$685	1,806	2,101	-295	No	+$463	05-01 04:00
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	14	$681	1,113	1,113	+0	open	—	11-04 14:55
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	6	$631	3,084	3,084	+0	open	—	09-05 23:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	15	$588	541	539	+2	Yes	+$137	04-23 17:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	20	$579	879	879	+0	Yes	+$255	04-29 18:09
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	32	$492	2,190	856	+1,334	open	—	11-06 11:46
Iran leadership change by October 31?	31	$462	10,881	8,917	+1,964	No	+$106	10-30 21:59
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	21	$452	328	328	+0	Yes	+$197	02-28 06:59
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	6	$444	908	908	+0	open	—	09-25 21:47
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	25	$434	1,091	1,091	+0	No	-$11	05-05 21:16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	85	$425	50,000	50,000	+0	No	+$25	10-15 12:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	18	$376	313	311	+2	No	+$65	04-28 12:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	6	$350	413	413	+0	No	+$11	05-04 22:00
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	11	$334	639	639	+0	open	—	11-04 10:54
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	4	$330	813	813	+0	Yes	-$21	10-01 17:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 11:46:27	Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	10¢	$13	0xd7edff…
11-06 07:12:22	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	99	4¢	$4	0x3e2901…
11-06 06:47:10	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	301	4¢	$11	0xbd24a7…
11-05 23:37:21	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$41	0xfd7bfa…
11-05 22:52:48	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	35	7¢	$2	0x1ffd75…
11-05 22:52:37	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	230	6¢	$14	0x0bef9e…
11-05 19:51:24	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$7	0x761404…
11-04 17:32:55	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	570	8¢	$46	0xf3b86c…
11-04 16:55:27	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x6008f6…
11-04 16:52:33	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$36	0x9065c0…
11-04 16:49:31	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xaf6fbf…
11-04 16:48:48	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	144	10¢	$14	0xac099a…
11-04 16:47:04	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	60	12¢	$7	0x69d701…
11-04 15:00:18	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x04838e…
11-04 14:55:09	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	36¢	$39	0xfae419…
11-04 14:41:24	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$36	0xbb4425…
11-04 14:38:36	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	219	35¢	$77	0xd76c98…
11-04 14:37:12	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	108	8¢	$9	0x5cd0f0…
11-04 14:14:04	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	800	4¢	$32	0xbd486a…
11-04 13:54:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	600	9¢	$54	0x104b64…
11-04 13:49:18	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	36¢	$11	0x06b5bc…
11-04 13:49:07	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	36¢	$22	0x7559b4…
11-04 13:46:46	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	310	9¢	$28	0x9dffa3…
11-04 13:45:12	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0x743846…
11-04 10:56:18	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	304	5¢	$15	0x883963…
11-04 10:54:06	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0xcbdec7…
11-04 09:58:16	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	998	5¢	$50	0xeaad92…
11-04 09:46:12	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x18108b…
11-04 09:21:30	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	27¢	$81	0x8257b5…
11-04 09:04:16	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0xf65e5b…
11-04 09:00:25	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	642	5¢	$32	0xe92e55…
11-04 08:57:49	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	243	35¢	$85	0x43a849…
11-04 08:56:36	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0x8208b9…
11-04 08:55:48	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x6d6f8c…
11-04 08:53:30	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	319	27¢	$86	0x7bb866…
11-04 08:49:45	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x7e1cf1…
11-04 08:49:12	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0x1252c3…
11-04 08:48:57	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	37¢	$47	0x2473ae…
11-03 22:16:39	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x82deb4…
11-03 22:13:42	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	37¢	$34	0x4a22a0…
11-03 18:45:18	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0x9415e9…
11-02 16:46:48	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	24¢	$21	0x20a17b…
11-02 16:46:46	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x9a290b…
11-02 16:35:39	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xd07877…
11-02 16:24:51	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x6dac10…
11-02 01:28:34	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	281	4¢	$11	0x693cdd…
11-01 21:24:10	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	34	4¢	$1	0x5ffac1…
11-01 16:49:54	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x348d66…
11-01 16:24:39	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xa2e43e…
11-01 15:09:34	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xe0cccf…
11-01 12:30:13	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	413	26¢	$107	0x01d36c…
11-01 11:04:51	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	400	7¢	$28	0x96cd97…
11-01 06:14:22	Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?	Yes	SELL	95	0¢	$0	0xf7e0d2…
11-01 04:02:52	Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x868948…
11-01 03:58:25	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	318	0¢	$1	0x6aafaf…
11-01 03:55:18	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	435	9¢	$39	0xac6c6c…
10-31 22:20:34	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	22	19¢	$4	0x13c506…
10-31 21:04:30	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x5cf54a…
10-31 20:57:10	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x9c92a3…
10-31 17:40:40	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x7aebaf…
10-31 07:18:58	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	595	8¢	$48	0xe6db17…
10-31 06:14:15	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	1¢	$1	0xf00cc1…
10-31 05:33:24	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0x789725…
10-31 04:08:37	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	121	1¢	$1	0x944e5c…
10-31 03:37:42	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xc00c7d…
10-31 03:37:15	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xfa1ef5…
10-31 03:37:12	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xcb9692…
10-31 03:37:12	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xaf8487…
10-31 03:37:12	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x7171bb…
10-31 03:37:12	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x4af392…
10-31 03:37:12	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0x0b91a6…
10-31 03:25:52	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x08453f…
10-31 03:12:13	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0xb0006c…
10-30 23:58:58	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x6b6907…
10-30 22:51:13	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x333da4…
10-30 21:59:01	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	SELL	46	7¢	$3	0xcd3458…
10-30 21:07:46	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x8721ee…
10-30 19:56:24	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0xeedd55…
10-30 19:19:52	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	201	9¢	$18	0xcf315c…
10-30 19:19:04	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	700	9¢	$63	0x44c640…
10-30 14:16:43	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	203	53¢	$108	0x2de99a…
10-30 10:20:57	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	251	19¢	$48	0xe9f32d…
10-30 01:43:31	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	375	21¢	$79	0x8a8448…
10-30 00:20:00	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	25	21¢	$5	0xcb1179…
10-29 23:00:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0xe42904…
10-29 22:58:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x6fdefc…
10-29 22:58:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x09cf02…
10-29 22:55:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x8cd8a4…
10-29 22:53:22	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x188eb3…
10-29 22:15:48	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x5b935b…
10-29 22:15:07	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	SELL	236	9¢	$21	0xb3dd42…
10-29 22:14:40	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	SELL	369	10¢	$37	0x983b56…
10-29 22:09:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x01f159…
10-29 08:24:31	Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	53	39¢	$21	0x2f9134…
10-26 23:11:17	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x26e37a…
10-26 19:39:08	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x9816ad…
10-26 19:38:45	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x70edae…
10-26 19:38:39	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$23	0x667398…
10-26 19:38:12	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x8f2ab2…
10-26 19:38:12	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x1dd65f…