Merry-Agreement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$811

Unrealized P&L

+$172

Hit rate

55.5%

Resolved

494

Trades

662

lifetime

Volume

$48.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$596

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 11-05 02:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Other

77% 28% -$300

Politics

15% 44% +$149

Sports

8% 48% +$966

Crypto

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+511	$199	70¢	$355	+$157	09-26 06:27
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+714	$100	15¢	$104	+$4	08-19 02:55
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+204	$100	42¢	$87	-$13	11-05 02:57
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-323	-$103	12¢	$-40	+$63	05-18 00:45
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	Yes	+278	$50	3¢	$9	-$41	07-14 02:52
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	-111	-$5	2¢	$-2	+$3	07-06 04:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$7.0K	7,103	0	+7,103	Yes	+$103	11-04 01:24
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$957	0	2,545	-2,545	No	+$957	07-14 03:09
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	7	$921	669	669	+0	No	+$101	09-01 14:45
fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	4	$757	1,136	328	+808	Morocco	+$366	06-30 03:52
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	1	$500	1,111	0	+1,111	Under	-$500	05-30 13:46
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?	2	$437	417	417	+0	Yes	+$338	07-03 01:05
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$419	0	2,419	-2,419	No	+$419	07-14 03:09
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	3	$401	689	178	+511	open	—	09-26 06:27
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	2	$400	550	0	+550	Spain	+$150	07-19 21:13
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$393	730	1,387	-657	Yes	-$465	07-14 03:09
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	2	$350	665	0	+665	Yes	-$42	06-24 03:06
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$334	692	1,232	-540	No	+$114	05-27 02:09
fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 first half total 1pt5	2	$320	623	0	+623	Over	+$303	06-17 17:47
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	2	$305	227	227	+0	Yes	+$105	06-23 01:56
fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 2pt5	1	$300	698	0	+698	Under	-$300	06-12 19:13
Will Aurora Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament	1	$300	2,529	0	+2,529	No	-$300	07-07 02:36
fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 btts	1	$300	448	0	+448	No	+$148	06-22 05:26
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	1	$300	638	0	+638	Yes	+$338	06-28 01:44
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	2	$300	782	0	+782	Under	-$300	07-04 22:35
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	1	$300	441	0	+441	Over	+$141	07-18 05:59
dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19	2	$300	525	0	+525	PARIVISION	+$225	07-19 15:05
fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 total 0pt5	3	$280	527	0	+527	Under	-$280	06-21 01:49
Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer	2	$265	217	217	+0	Yes	+$165	05-30 18:08
Will LGD Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament	25	$250	3,225	0	+3,225	No	-$250	07-08 20:50
fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 total 3pt5	3	$220	534	0	+534	Over	+$314	06-18 03:53
Will Team Spirit win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament	44	$211	1,111	1,111	+0	No	+$11	07-16 10:06
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$208	1,280	660	+620	No	-$2	07-08 05:37
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	1	$200	400	0	+400	Germany	+$200	06-14 17:00
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 first half team total home 1pt5	1	$200	400	0	+400	Over	+$200	06-21 15:50
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 btts	1	$200	312	0	+312	Yes	+$112	07-06 14:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 02:57:10	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xc04102…
11-04 08:32:37	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	16¢	$5	0x2129d1…
11-04 07:19:04	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xaaf672…
11-04 01:24:01	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	7,103	99¢	$7,000	0x06ddc5…
11-03 02:08:40	Will Tottenham Hotspur be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0x7f99d6…
10-30 04:56:48	Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 1 - 0 Everton FC?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x8a4f5d…
10-30 04:56:28	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x7d6f20…
10-30 04:56:10	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 0 Fulham FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xe95707…
10-30 04:52:24	Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 1 - 0 Crystal Palace FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x65b08b…
10-30 04:52:09	Exact Score: Hull City AFC 1 - 2 Ipswich Town FC?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x613755…
10-30 04:51:54	Exact Score: Coventry City FC 0 - 1 Sunderland AFC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xcc17ab…
10-30 04:51:42	Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 0 Leeds United FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x2a6827…
10-30 04:51:06	Exact Score: Brentford FC 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x74eeef…
10-30 04:50:51	Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x4e75d8…
10-30 04:50:27	Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 1 Manchester United FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xae9bc6…
10-23 04:46:21	Exact Score: Sunderland AFC 0 - 1 Leeds United FC?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x755e24…
10-23 04:45:48	Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 2 Newcastle United FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xa8d7ac…
10-23 04:45:32	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 1 AFC Bournemouth?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xcb16e7…
10-23 04:45:18	Exact Score: Hull City AFC 0 - 1 Brentford FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x41fa7d…
10-23 04:45:05	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xdbaef0…
10-23 04:44:51	Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xe92370…
10-23 04:44:36	Exact Score: Coventry City FC 0 - 1 Fulham FC?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xd9a31b…
10-23 04:44:26	Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Everton FC?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xfcec8f…
10-23 04:44:15	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 2 Manchester City FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xc7eb96…
10-23 04:43:32	Exact Score: Ipswich Town FC 1 - 2 Nottingham Forest FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xbeab04…
10-18 16:53:15	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0x1d9e39…
10-17 09:58:09	Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 1 - 0 Coventry City FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xa487bd…
10-17 09:57:45	Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x4f8640…
10-17 09:57:17	Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 0 Crystal Palace FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x50800a…
10-17 09:56:53	Exact Score: Leeds United FC 1 - 1 Manchester United FC?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x6e4ebb…
10-17 09:56:33	Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 1 Sunderland AFC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x543f65…
10-17 09:54:02	Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 1 - 1 Aston Villa FC?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x8b6741…
10-17 09:53:45	Exact Score: Brentford FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x9e11d7…
10-17 09:53:27	Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 1 Ipswich Town FC?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x426719…
10-17 09:53:00	Exact Score: Fulham FC 2 - 1 Hull City AFC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x664d05…
10-17 09:52:41	Exact Score: Everton FC 1 - 1 Chelsea FC?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x17acae…
10-13 15:49:15	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	286	70¢	$200	0xb2afe0…
10-10 12:51:58	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x1e1336…
10-10 10:56:28	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xdd5d9f…
10-10 10:56:22	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x1d61f8…
10-10 10:56:07	Exact Score: Coventry City FC 0 - 1 Newcastle United FC?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x12c097…
10-10 10:55:52	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 2 Manchester City FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x171fac…
10-10 10:55:37	Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest FC?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x21da49…
10-10 10:55:24	Exact Score: Hull City AFC 0 - 1 Everton FC?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x66e868…
10-10 10:54:49	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xa20106…
10-10 10:54:36	Exact Score: Ipswich Town FC 1 - 1 Fulham FC?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x67ec0a…
10-10 10:54:22	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 2 Brentford FC?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x7c178d…
10-10 10:54:04	Exact Score: Sunderland AFC 2 - 2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x48de9d…
10-10 10:53:52	Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 1 AFC Bournemouth?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x1ad7d8…
10-10 10:53:40	Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Leeds United FC?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x3f0229…
09-26 06:27:03	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	178	57¢	$101	0xe02f69…
09-21 01:46:44	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x463eea…
09-18 13:46:02	Exact Score: Fulham FC 1 - 1 Manchester United FC?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x185a0f…
09-18 13:44:03	Exact Score: Leeds United FC 2 - 1 Crystal Palace FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x90dc60…
09-18 13:42:33	Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 2 Liverpool FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xeb88e3…
09-18 13:42:12	Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 0 Sunderland AFC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xe7b7f9…
09-18 13:41:59	Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 0 Coventry City FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x285563…
09-18 13:41:17	Exact Score: Everton FC 2 - 1 Ipswich Town FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x4891d5…
09-18 13:40:59	Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x25c44b…
09-18 13:31:20	Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 1 - 1 Hull City AFC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x3b40d1…
09-18 13:31:06	Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 1 - 1 Aston Villa FC?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x5090d7…
09-18 13:30:53	Exact Score: Brentford FC 1 - 2 Chelsea FC?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x3bd0d0…
09-16 13:36:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0x51ea08…
09-12 07:17:13	Exact Score: Leeds United FC 1 - 1 Newcastle United FC?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x617d5c…
09-12 07:17:00	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 2 Manchester City FC?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x9e4940…
09-12 07:16:43	Exact Score: Coventry City FC 1 - 2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x4a6edc…
09-12 07:16:18	Exact Score: Sunderland AFC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xf24c22…
09-12 07:16:01	Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 1 - 1 Everton FC?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x05b1e6…
09-12 07:15:48	Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 1 Ipswich Town FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x763368…
09-12 07:15:33	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xa7e72c…
09-12 07:15:19	Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 1 Brentford FC?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x3275bb…
09-12 07:15:06	Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 0 Hull City AFC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xbd4206…
09-12 07:14:51	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Fulham FC?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x929a5d…
09-11 02:25:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x1f0557…
09-09 02:58:30	Exact Score: SK Slavia Praha 2 - 1 Racing Club de Lens?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x8845b9…
09-09 02:58:07	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 3 - 1 Sabah FK?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xfa3229…
09-09 02:57:49	Exact Score: Como 1907 2 - 2 RB Leipzig?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x46aa95…
09-09 02:57:18	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 FK Bodø/Glimt?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xa8a642…
09-09 02:57:00	Exact Score: PSV 3 - 1 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x41ceb0…
09-09 02:56:36	Exact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 1 - 2 AS Roma?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xf4ba23…
09-09 02:56:22	Exact Score: SSC Napoli 0 - 1 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x1379e7…
09-09 02:56:10	Exact Score: Sporting CP 2 - 0 Galatasaray SK?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x1b0572…
09-09 02:55:58	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 ŠK Slovan Bratislava?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x01c4fb…
09-09 02:55:43	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xb5e7d6…
09-09 02:55:25	Exact Score: VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 Viking FK?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xeec62c…
09-09 02:55:09	Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Feyenoord Rotterdam?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xe2b8e8…
09-09 02:55:03	Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)	FC Barcelona	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x118eab…
09-06 16:40:51	Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 1 Chelsea FC?	Yes	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0xa0aa7d…
09-06 16:38:31	Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 2 Chelsea FC?	Yes	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0xfb533a…
09-06 15:35:04	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06?	No	BUY	303	66¢	$200	0xffbfa6…
09-03 01:19:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	189	53¢	$100	0x7b79fe…
09-01 14:45:16	Will Julian Alvarez join Chelsea?	Yes	SELL	86	0¢	$0	0xbf379e…
09-01 14:45:12	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	SELL	61	0¢	$0	0xec5b1d…
08-31 05:17:57	Will Manchester United be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	170	18¢	$30	0x6df5c5…
08-30 13:36:40	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0xfb505a…
08-30 13:36:13	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	No	SELL	608	84¢	$511	0x288899…
08-29 13:58:09	Coventry City FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x8e7e20…
08-29 13:58:04	Coventry City FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x39264e…
08-29 13:56:55	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-08-29?	No	SELL	111	44¢	$49	0x7842ed…
08-29 13:56:48	Coventry City FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	89	55¢	$49	0xd69c87…