Realized P&L
-$81
Unrealized P&L
-$23
Hit rate
56.5%
Resolved
131
Trades
195
lifetime
Volume
$1.79K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$35
13 positions
First seen
2026-01-07
last 11-04 14:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 46 days
Categories
Crypto
48% 33% +$35
Politics
32% 35% -$52
Other
21% 23% -$59
Sports
0% 0% -$4
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
15 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 88¢ $6 +$1 10-04 20:55
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -10 -$6 54¢ $-5 +$1 07-17 21:26
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +10 $3 45¢ $5 +$1 07-17 21:29
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? Yes +45 $5 10¢ $4 -$1 10-04 20:57
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +208 $5 2¢ $4 -$1 10-04 20:57
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +31 $5 11¢ $3 -$2 10-04 20:53
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? No +20 $5 14¢ $3 -$2 10-04 20:59
Nawrocki out by December 31? Yes +83 $5 2¢ $2 -$3 10-31 14:57
Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30? Yes +50 $5 4¢ $2 -$3 10-07 13:24
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes -2 -$1 62¢ $-1 +$0 07-17 21:26
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? No +10 $5 4¢ $0 -$5 10-04 20:56
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026? No +50 $5 0¢ $0 -$5 11-04 14:21
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +15 $5 0¢ $0 -$5 10-20 13:21