Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

59.2%

Resolved

113

Trades

123

lifetime

Volume

$126

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-09-07

last 11-08 09:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Other

83% 60% +$13

Politics

15% 65% +$2

Tech

2% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	+4	$1	72¢	$3	+$2	10-25 14:47
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	55¢	$2	+$1	11-06 13:09
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by November 13, 2026?	No	+4	$1	36¢	$1	+$0	11-07 08:04
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 7+ times during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	No	+2	$1	43¢	$1	+$0	11-08 09:28
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	No	+5	$1	22¢	$1	+$0	11-07 16:05
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	+2	$1	55¢	$1	$0	11-06 22:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 09:28:28	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 7+ times during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf13836…
11-07 16:05:12	Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xf1347f…
11-07 08:04:33	Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xdc2443…
11-06 22:46:03	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x6f0f07…
11-06 13:09:46	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x5210d8…
11-06 01:22:46	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7d95cb…
11-05 13:15:39	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xaae44b…
11-05 02:59:03	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xbb136b…
11-04 05:30:34	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc9da97…
11-03 07:24:27	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 3?	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x350471…
11-02 23:23:49	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe42e22…
11-02 15:22:01	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $198 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xb2b094…
11-02 07:12:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x9e3155…
11-01 23:11:37	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x56c4ab…
10-30 01:26:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x041d38…
10-29 17:16:55	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 29?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x7af786…
10-29 04:17:58	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x544036…
10-28 08:14:01	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x74c97d…
10-28 00:04:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x9df15a…
10-27 03:32:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x4bd88f…
10-26 06:58:15	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x9e74db…
10-25 22:56:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x424ba9…
10-25 14:47:48	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x692986…
10-25 06:36:47	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xf7b799…
10-24 16:09:24	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa4ef1a…
10-23 22:55:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xcba224…
10-23 12:56:03	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xd34375…
10-23 04:53:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x03000d…
10-23 04:52:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xc2d78b…
10-22 20:32:44	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x3b7d83…
10-22 12:24:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x7d3b38…
10-21 21:21:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x94cfa2…
10-21 12:55:02	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21?	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x7cb7af…
10-21 04:37:54	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x06eff7…
10-20 20:22:06	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $186 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xfbcd31…
10-20 12:09:57	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20?	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x9cd747…
10-20 04:09:42	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5657d0…
10-19 20:09:20	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x7677e5…
10-19 12:04:56	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $147 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x2f51bd…
10-19 04:04:47	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xac11b2…
10-19 04:04:38	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x7273fd…
10-18 20:04:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xd56986…
10-18 11:55:56	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4a9c57…
10-18 01:58:09	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x87b8da…
10-17 16:00:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x183a00…
10-16 12:57:42	will wti dip to 95 by october 12 2026 from october 15	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc13003…
10-16 12:39:27	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa54e4c…
10-16 04:33:37	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x58e679…
10-16 00:29:12	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x9bc68c…
10-15 09:45:01	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x87c1d9…
10-15 01:11:35	will the tesla roadsters 0 60 time be less than 1 second	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6a320c…
10-14 14:08:14	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x77cdb7…
10-14 05:57:22	will msft dip to 540 by october 12 2026 from october 13	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xea3163…
10-13 21:47:15	will xagusd reach 61 by october 12 2026 from october 12	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xadbfdb…
10-13 13:41:08	will ewy reach 174 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xd0fbd5…
10-11 04:31:09	Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xf9f838…
10-10 19:34:46	Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 MedTech revenue be above $8.8B?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x3c5993…
10-10 05:40:19	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x563ae6…
10-09 19:56:16	Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x3e3999…
10-09 11:51:52	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x996cfc…
10-09 03:49:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9?	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xc778a6…
10-08 19:48:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xf3f86d…
10-08 06:26:25	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x2386d8…
10-08 06:24:34	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xdc01e5…
10-07 22:22:34	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa47a0b…
10-07 14:06:22	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x5301cb…
10-07 04:51:35	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7?	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe5fe15…
10-06 20:46:47	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x505815…
10-06 12:17:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xbc1049…
10-06 04:16:25	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x37128e…
10-05 18:01:05	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 5?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xa23458…
10-05 17:56:13	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x10b5dd…
10-05 00:33:50	will tsla dip to 360 by october 5 2026	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x3f17a1…
10-02 14:26:48	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xf2f27d…
10-02 05:41:42	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x4e40c1…
10-01 12:21:33	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd69083…
10-01 04:04:41	trump names ai czar by october 4 2026 20260928	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xcbda35…
09-30 07:42:18	spx up or down on september 30 2026	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xb16bca…
09-29 23:37:20	will googl reach 350 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xad343c…
09-29 13:52:21	will wti reach 95 by september 28 2026 from september 28	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x96fe6a…
09-29 05:26:48	will msft reach 525 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x727fbc…
09-28 21:26:21	will ewy reach 193 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x91e83d…
09-28 13:14:33	spx up or down on september 28 2026	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x79c14b…
09-28 05:11:27	will tsla reach 375 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9d2afd…
09-27 21:11:17	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xf495ef…
09-27 06:23:20	will msft dip to 510 in september 2026 from september 25	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xf8dbc9…
09-26 22:16:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x2cf897…
09-26 07:35:42	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x782ce3…
09-25 21:37:35	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $80 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xa51a5a…
09-25 13:37:20	spx up or down on september 25 2026	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5cf15c…
09-25 04:48:35	spy up or down on september 25 2026	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xed92d4…
09-24 18:07:38	spy up or down on september 24 2026	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x75c7e8…
09-24 10:06:38	Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x667f06…
09-24 02:06:22	Will BlackBerry say "Headwind" during earnings call?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x49efb0…
09-24 01:51:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x434a6e…
09-23 16:36:06	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x57d492…
09-23 08:06:52	will ukraine target moscow on september 29 2026	No	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0xf6b797…
09-22 23:45:26	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $187 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x8cdb02…
09-22 15:28:34	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xaba28f…
09-22 07:16:58	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xbda916…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026?	2	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-21 15:15
spx up or down on october 16 2026	2	$2	5	+5	Down	+$1	10-16 04:33
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	2	$2	5	+5	No	-$1	10-23 04:53
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026?	2	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$1	10-08 06:26
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	-$1	09-19 05:55
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	-$1	09-24 01:51
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	09-11 23:44
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	09-21 23:16
will ukraine target moscow on september 29 2026	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$0	09-23 08:06
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 18?	1	$1	3	+3	Down	+$2	09-18 15:16
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	-$1	09-08 04:37
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	09-10 18:43
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina?	1	$1	4	+4	No	+$3	09-15 23:45
Will Trump say "Save America Act" during RNC Convention?	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	-$1	09-09 13:27
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	+$2	09-21 07:11
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	-$1	09-22 07:16
spy up or down on september 11 2026	1	$1	5	+5	Up	-$1	09-11 12:25
will mu reach 990 by september 14 2026	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-13 21:13
spx up or down on september 11 2026	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	09-11 04:05
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	09-14 05:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	09-09 04:20
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $187 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-22 23:45
Will BlackBerry say "Headwind" during earnings call?	1	$1	3	+3	No	+$2	09-24 02:06
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$0	09-23 16:36
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	09-17 20:54
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	09-14 13:20
laptop airdrop by september 9	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	09-08 19:05
spy up or down on september 10 2026	1	$1	2	+2	Down	-$1	09-10 01:47
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-07 14:24
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	09-22 15:28