Realized P&L (90d)
+$133
Unrealized P&L
+$2.02K
Hit rate
85.5%
Resolved (90d)
66
Trades (90d)
416
3,087 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$133.8K
$1.14M lifetime
Avg / trade
$369
Open exposure
$39.0K
21 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 18:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 124 days
Categories
Other
53% 75% +$7,705
Politics
38% 85% +$21,899
Crypto
6% 100% +$1,606
Sports
2% 77% -$5,322
Tech
1% 86% -$191
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
55 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +21,079 $19,666 98¢ $20.8K +$1,087 10-25 23:41
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No +5,000 $4,586 98¢ $4.9K +$291 09-04 22:47
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +3,220 $2,853 94¢ $3.0K +$173 10-26 14:39
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +2,921 $2,360 100¢ $2.9K +$547 10-27 20:54
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +3,000 $2,830 96¢ $2.9K +$35 10-27 06:27
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +1,500 $1,450 98¢ $1.5K +$23 10-14 18:41
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +700 $644 94¢ $654 +$10 10-17 14:21
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +500 $499 100¢ $500 +$0 10-27 18:55
No one announced as next James Bond? No +600 $446 79¢ $475 +$29 10-16 15:30
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +390 $363 97¢ $380 +$17 06-03 07:54
viktor orban arrested by december 31 20260708001041551 No +337 $35 86¢ $288 +$253 10-28 18:20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +386 $275 55¢ $210 -$65 10-27 20:03
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +200 $184 72¢ $143 -$41 09-14 07:15
Plague pandemic in 2026? No +100 $96 98¢ $98 +$2 10-08 06:39
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +100 $84 97¢ $97 +$12 09-17 18:54
New pandemic in 2026? No +100 $95 96¢ $96 +$2 10-12 00:06
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No +100 $85 79¢ $79 -$6 10-27 18:08
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Yes +400 $140 16¢ $62 -$78 09-08 17:36
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +50 $22 68¢ $34 +$12 06-21 13:31
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +400 $275 1¢ $4 -$271 10-27 19:16
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more? Yes +26 $19 2¢ $0 -$19 10-25 12:50