Realized P&L (90d)
+$12
Unrealized P&L
+$67
Hit rate
77.4%
Resolved (90d)
33
Trades (90d)
270
270 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$1.11K
$1.11K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$213
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-29
last 11-13 13:24
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
48% 36% -$1
Other
48% 55% +$8
Tech
4% 50% +$5
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
16 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Perplexity launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? Yes +20 $12 72¢ $14 +$2 11-08 03:19
Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 130m? No +25 $7 52¢ $13 +$6 11-10 19:27
Will France win Miss Universe 2026? No +15 $11 87¢ $13 +$2 11-12 18:18
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +15 $8 75¢ $11 +$3 11-09 02:43
Israel military action against Lebanon on November 17? No +25 $9 44¢ $11 +$2 11-13 06:22
Screwworm National Emergency declared by December 31? No +15 $8 69¢ $10 +$3 11-11 12:36
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +25 $8 39¢ $10 +$1 11-11 15:28
Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026? No +15 $7 62¢ $9 +$3 11-12 12:42
Will "Victorian Psycho" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes +15 $7 62¢ $9 +$2 11-13 13:24
Next James Bond announced by November 30, 2026? No +15 $7 61¢ $9 +$2 11-12 05:01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.6%-0.9%? No +24 -$11 38¢ $9 +$20 11-13 01:04
Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026? No +15 $7 58¢ $9 +$2 11-12 20:57
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by November 30? No +15 $9 54¢ $8 -$1 11-13 00:48
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026? No +14 $5 54¢ $8 +$3 11-08 04:59
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by November 30? Yes +15 $5 43¢ $6 +$1 11-12 13:37
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026? No +15 $7 38¢ $6 -$1 11-12 15:36
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by November 30, 2026? Yes +7 $2 83¢ $5 +$4 11-10 00:42
Will Cody Johnson win Male Vocalist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? No +15 $4 35¢ $5 +$1 11-04 21:08
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-11 House election by 12% or more? No +20 $11 26¢ $5 -$6 10-30 21:02
Israel military action against Lebanon on November 19? No +15 $1 33¢ $5 +$4 11-13 06:23
Will JAY-Z release a new song in 2026? No +15 $3 32¢ $5 +$2 11-13 06:10
Will Hayden Panettiere rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026? No +15 $2 32¢ $5 +$3 11-09 08:03
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? Yes +15 $3 29¢ $4 +$2 11-13 11:24
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by November 30, 2026? No +4 $0 95¢ $4 +$4 11-09 09:57
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +15 $7 24¢ $4 -$3 11-04 23:54
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by November 30, 2026? Yes +15 $3 24¢ $4 +$0 11-10 18:13
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes +25 $3 12¢ $3 $0 11-11 07:12
Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? Yes +17 $2 16¢ $3 +$0 11-13 10:48
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes +4 -$2 74¢ $3 +$5 11-11 16:58
Will Laos be in the top 3 at Eurovision Asia 2026? No +3 $2 78¢ $2 +$1 11-10 19:05