Irresponsible-Supply — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

60.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,132

lifetime

Volume

$24.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-25 03:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

40% — —

Politics

36% 33% +$27

Crypto

21% 50% $-8

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 93 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes		+50	$1	0¢	$0	$-1	06-07 20:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iraq by february 28	11	$1.7K	1,533	1,533	+0	open	—	03-03 21:59
us forces board bella 1 by friday	10	$1.1K	883	883	+0	open	—	01-07 13:09
highest temperature in munich on march 13 2026 15c	10	$957	548	548	+0	open	—	03-13 13:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	27	$718	4,073	2,962	+1,112	open	—	04-08 00:05
will israel strike gaza on january 7 2026	11	$665	1,788	1,139	+649	open	—	01-07 19:15
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	24	$604	4,827	940	+3,887	open	—	04-05 13:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	8	$587	837	837	+0	open	—	05-02 16:22
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	32	$566	1,612	1,612	+0	open	—	03-30 22:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	3	$492	587	520	+67	open	—	05-02 15:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	30	$463	510	510	+0	open	—	05-02 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	3	$447	544	453	+91	open	—	05-02 15:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	7	$426	643	461	+182	open	—	05-02 15:34
iran closes its airspace by june 8	7	$402	760	311	+448	open	—	06-07 21:03
dota2 ty heroic 2026 02 13 game3	15	$392	353	353	+0	open	—	02-13 23:03
us strikes iraq by march 7	4	$366	216	216	+0	open	—	03-08 20:44
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	18	$342	2,384	1,128	+1,256	open	—	04-23 17:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	5	$323	395	386	+9	open	—	05-03 16:29
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$321	412	0	+412	open	—	02-09 11:02
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	17	$268	490	490	+0	open	—	01-10 23:19
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	2	$266	136	136	+0	open	—	02-15 23:19
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	7	$248	203	203	+0	open	—	04-22 11:00
nicols maduro seen in public by january 5	4	$245	127	127	+0	open	—	01-03 23:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	11	$236	281	224	+57	open	—	05-02 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	1	$230	616	0	+616	open	—	05-02 16:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	2	$201	552	0	+552	open	—	05-02 15:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	23	$198	213	212	+1	open	—	04-07 23:33
will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	2	$189	103	103	+0	open	—	03-02 00:59
north korea missile launch by january 31 413	2	$189	97	97	+0	open	—	01-03 23:50
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	19	$188	350	311	+39	open	—	04-04 23:14
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	12	$182	1,419	570	+849	open	—	04-04 10:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 03:09:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	Yes	BUY	136	38¢	$51	0xe0d2ec…
06-11 13:29:07	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	116	45¢	$52	0x53d308…
06-08 14:49:00	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	SELL	18	94¢	$16	0x752eb6…
06-07 23:50:28	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xf45b69…
06-07 23:46:58	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x911fa8…
06-07 23:46:34	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	40¢	$15	0xf041ac…
06-07 23:45:54	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	40¢	$15	0x2591ae…
06-07 21:03:37	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	192	5¢	$9	0xd67e85…
06-07 20:14:57	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x02aeed…
06-07 20:11:25	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	115	46¢	$53	0xcd897f…
06-07 20:07:10	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	140	42¢	$59	0xa26692…
06-07 20:06:54	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	98	60¢	$59	0xd8d0e1…
06-07 20:06:03	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	99	69¢	$68	0x0a7776…
06-07 20:05:39	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	213	32¢	$69	0xf4cf9b…
06-07 19:42:51	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	213	40¢	$85	0x6363ce…
05-12 23:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x14d132…
05-12 23:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	SELL	139	16¢	$22	0x964061…
05-12 23:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xfe7266…
05-12 23:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x3df683…
05-12 23:37:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xe947ee…
05-12 23:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xb59099…
05-12 23:35:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	55	55¢	$30	0xcc00dc…
05-12 23:35:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	55	36¢	$20	0x8dfc8b…
05-12 23:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe96144…
05-12 23:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x5fef69…
05-12 23:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x4a0978…
05-12 23:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	12	45¢	$5	0x8700fb…
05-12 23:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xebe8e1…
05-12 23:31:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	12	48¢	$6	0xfbd3e4…
05-12 23:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x0ee17a…
05-12 23:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x9e0015…
05-12 23:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x6e9333…
05-12 23:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xf6ad3e…
05-12 23:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xeb2856…
05-12 23:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xcee5a8…
05-12 23:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	6¢	$0	0xbb8784…
05-12 23:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xadd6f8…
05-12 23:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x9f696b…
05-12 23:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x95e2bb…
05-12 23:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x90903c…
05-12 23:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x387122…
05-12 23:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x256ccc…
05-12 23:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	16	43¢	$7	0x271504…
05-12 23:23:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xa42179…
05-12 23:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	44	68¢	$30	0xd7016e…
05-12 23:22:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xbe8394…
05-12 23:22:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x71a664…
05-12 23:22:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	13	67¢	$9	0x7c364b…
05-12 23:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x6dd3c0…
05-12 23:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xcae26f…
05-12 23:18:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	27	42¢	$11	0x074150…
05-12 23:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x0a8645…
05-12 23:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x298e01…
05-12 23:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	13	44¢	$6	0xd55082…
05-12 23:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x1e4c3f…
05-12 23:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xdf6fee…
05-12 23:13:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	18	80¢	$15	0x61c50a…
05-12 23:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	24¢	$4	0x9a2d8c…
05-07 20:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x7db461…
05-07 20:23:01	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0xd9048d…
05-03 16:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	242	33¢	$80	0x58055a…
05-03 16:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xecdddd…
05-03 16:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	179	47¢	$84	0xee5d27…
05-03 16:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	179	42¢	$75	0xddb148…
05-03 16:25:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	207	40¢	$83	0x93e72a…
05-03 16:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	207	39¢	$80	0x7fd196…
05-03 16:24:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x6934fc…
05-03 16:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x6224c0…
05-03 16:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	222	42¢	$93	0x5bbdd4…
05-03 16:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	222	32¢	$70	0xe44147…
05-03 16:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2e8804…
05-03 16:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0x7a4d0f…
05-03 16:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x563a1c…
05-03 16:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xbb7b15…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xde10a2…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xbcb782…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x9bfeab…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x7bea36…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0x78af2b…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0x72b0e3…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0x2d21a0…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x1fd2b1…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0x198b84…
05-03 16:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0x0c689f…
05-03 16:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	134	37¢	$50	0xee518b…
05-03 16:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb10335…
05-03 16:05:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	244	33¢	$80	0xe9fde4…
05-03 16:04:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xb2edac…
05-03 16:03:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	159	55¢	$87	0xfff99b…
05-03 16:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	159	47¢	$75	0x78c881…
05-03 16:01:42	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x150676…
05-03 16:01:36	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	10¢	$5	0xbd740e…
05-03 16:01:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	41	20¢	$8	0x31c7d6…
05-02 16:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	616	37¢	$230	0xf14977…
05-02 16:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	507	45¢	$228	0x8d1ff9…
05-02 16:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xf61e55…
05-02 16:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	45¢	$5	0xc35f06…
05-02 16:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0xa5d975…
05-02 16:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x146eb5…
05-02 16:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	529	25¢	$130	0x0ab6a8…