Watchful-Rations — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.54K

Unrealized P&L

-$623

Hit rate

43.4%

Resolved

1,592

Trades

9,874

lifetime

Volume

$113.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$772

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-26 03:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 207 days

Categories

Other

95% 43% -$1,007

Sports

3% 45% +$2

Politics

1% 38% -$281

Crypto

0% 14% -$256

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 172 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	+1,950	$540	29¢	$565	+$26	10-15 11:03
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+610	$191	16¢	$101	-$90	10-06 23:10
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+2,487	$575	3¢	$77	-$498	09-15 14:38
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	+343	$89	8¢	$29	-$61	10-13 23:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cbb xav seton 2026 01 28	13	$630	728	428	+300	Seton Hall Pirates	+$225	01-29 02:29
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	17	$575	2,487	0	+2,487	open	—	09-15 14:38
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	22	$540	1,950	0	+1,950	open	—	10-15 11:03
Will SK Brann win on 2026-10-15?	18	$535	1,514	0	+1,514	Yes	-$535	10-15 20:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	15	$464	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	-$464	10-16 10:18
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?	18	$428	1,030	0	+1,030	No	+$602	04-29 20:39
epl ars mun 2026 01 25 ars	6	$424	350	300	+50	No	+$175	01-25 18:27
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	8	$407	1,420	1,070	+350	Yes	-$58	07-14 20:22
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	26	$397	1,100	0	+1,100	Yes	-$397	04-29 20:56
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 rma1	20	$395	1,650	0	+1,650	Yes	-$395	03-11 20:47
Will England win on 2026-07-18?	26	$385	2,870	0	+2,870	Yes	-$235	07-18 22:52
ucl psg1 new1 2026 01 28 psg1	16	$380	340	260	+80	No	+$140	01-29 00:46
itsb sam pal 2026 02 10 sam	29	$363	250	300	-50	No	+$186	02-10 20:52
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 mnc1	8	$350	670	0	+670	No	+$320	03-11 20:19
ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	3	$348	260	255	+5	No	+$166	04-15 23:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	30	$340	2,509	0	+2,509	Yes	-$340	03-19 01:06
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24?	33	$319	1,440	0	+1,440	Yes	-$319	05-24 19:53
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	9	$318	810	0	+810	No	+$332	07-05 21:24
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	46	$311	9,313	0	+9,313	Yes	-$311	05-13 12:20
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	15	$302	1,244	0	+1,244	No	-$302	03-16 23:59
Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5	8	$301	200	200	+0	Over	+$98	10-21 20:06
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)	16	$297	862	0	+862	FC Barcelona	-$297	09-06 16:00
Will PSV win on 2026-10-17?	4	$296	220	220	+0	No	+$143	10-17 16:32
cbb nebr minnst 2026 01 24	12	$280	370	170	+200	Nebraska Cornhuskers	+$60	01-24 20:14
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	21	$269	950	0	+950	Yes	-$269	05-05 20:34
lal cel rea 2026 03 07 rea	14	$267	880	0	+880	Yes	+$173	03-06 21:55
ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	9	$263	1,060	0	+1,060	Yes	-$263	04-14 20:43
fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	3	$238	400	0	+400	Over	+$162	07-01 00:49
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-09-05?	16	$236	710	0	+710	Yes	-$176	09-05 18:24
ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 tot	19	$235	700	0	+700	Yes	-$235	03-18 21:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 03:06:18	Will AD Pasto win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x591247…
10-26 03:01:32	Will AD Pasto win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0x1d78a8…
10-26 02:58:05	Will AD Pasto win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0xd4bead…
10-26 02:58:03	Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x395204…
10-26 02:57:09	Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x5dd7a5…
10-26 02:56:54	Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x3473f9…
10-26 02:53:05	Will AD Pasto win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x613ca5…
10-26 02:51:38	Will AD Pasto win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xc771f4…
10-26 02:51:38	Will AD Pasto win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x1f4d4e…
10-26 00:36:03	Will CD Oriente Petrolero win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xec5777…
10-26 00:14:47	Will CD Oriente Petrolero win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x334ba7…
10-25 23:55:44	Will CD Oriente Petrolero win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	94	38¢	$36	0xd9086a…
10-25 23:55:44	Will CD Oriente Petrolero win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x2f2c05…
10-25 23:55:08	Will CD Oriente Petrolero win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0x8aa87a…
10-25 22:31:27	Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0xae8125…
10-25 22:29:11	Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x07a2fe…
10-25 22:28:27	Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x5a133b…
10-25 22:28:26	Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	47	28¢	$13	0x5178af…
10-25 22:28:12	Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	13	28¢	$4	0x512a72…
10-25 22:27:26	Sporting CP vs. Académico de Viseu FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	40	36¢	$14	0xe00146…
10-25 22:26:08	Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	60	32¢	$19	0x0cf78a…
10-25 22:25:57	Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x6642b1…
10-25 22:25:57	Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	42	33¢	$14	0x5bdea7…
10-25 22:25:51	Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	63	33¢	$21	0x413f20…
10-25 21:57:41	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x02b569…
10-25 21:57:29	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xc62c88…
10-25 21:52:30	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0x6291ce…
10-25 21:52:21	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x3d4d5b…
10-25 21:52:20	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0xc9bcb3…
10-25 21:52:20	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	19	25¢	$5	0x0cc0ac…
10-25 21:52:12	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xbd3d12…
10-25 21:52:12	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	31	25¢	$8	0xb70599…
10-25 21:52:11	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x09bcf3…
10-25 21:49:50	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	40	35¢	$14	0x3f002e…
10-25 21:47:44	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0xcf0dec…
10-25 21:47:42	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xc70688…
10-25 21:47:41	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xa2bb69…
10-25 21:45:30	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x22fecc…
10-25 20:06:56	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xb5c100…
10-25 19:58:50	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0xefe2a3…
10-25 19:42:33	Will CD Nacional win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	19	35¢	$7	0x2d9199…
10-25 19:39:30	Will CD Nacional win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0xc08d26…
10-25 19:31:36	Will CD Nacional win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	120	49¢	$59	0xcf7398…
10-25 19:30:50	Will CD Nacional win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x6a4910…
10-25 18:01:17	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	120	39¢	$47	0xa5dd12…
10-25 17:44:54	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x947c7a…
10-25 17:44:47	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xe7129e…
10-25 17:11:47	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	60	36¢	$22	0x3d60b4…
10-25 17:11:38	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	130	36¢	$47	0x560291…
10-25 17:00:05	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0xefc179…
10-25 16:58:57	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	No	BUY	2	25¢	$1	0x2aff90…
10-25 16:58:48	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	No	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x7e43b4…
10-25 16:58:27	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	No	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x19bf13…
10-25 16:58:02	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	No	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xbbe2db…
10-25 16:56:21	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	No	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x9173d7…
10-25 16:53:18	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	No	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x96da8d…
10-25 16:43:51	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	No	BUY	30	47¢	$14	0xb5ea6d…
10-25 16:30:09	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0xd0d96c…
10-25 16:16:33	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x2a142b…
10-25 16:11:50	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	60	29¢	$17	0x21d691…
10-25 16:11:36	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0xb3fa98…
10-25 16:11:05	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x2af908…
10-25 16:10:54	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0xdee3f3…
10-25 16:10:14	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	120	28¢	$34	0xf23acc…
10-25 16:01:57	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0x830900…
10-25 15:52:36	Will AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?	No	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0xe169f9…
10-25 15:49:48	Will AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?	No	BUY	60	24¢	$14	0xc29988…
10-25 15:47:56	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x8d20ba…
10-25 15:47:32	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x54aaca…
10-25 15:41:41	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x293fe6…
10-25 15:39:02	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xc08145…
10-25 15:37:53	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x1439b7…
10-25 15:36:45	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x5e76fc…
10-25 15:35:41	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xe706f7…
10-25 15:31:54	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0xfa0abe…
10-25 15:31:30	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x152a2b…
10-25 15:31:15	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0x9f8771…
10-25 15:19:02	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	31	47¢	$14	0xe55193…
10-25 15:17:35	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xc8c74d…
10-25 15:10:45	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x84e11a…
10-25 15:06:00	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xfef130…
10-25 15:05:27	Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	78	50¢	$39	0x31578a…
10-25 15:05:09	Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5058b5…
10-25 15:04:50	Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2b321f…
10-25 15:00:14	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0x3083ca…
10-25 14:53:59	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd29729…
10-25 14:50:51	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x67ad4d…
10-25 14:47:57	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x827cba…
10-25 14:42:11	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	31	52¢	$16	0x9c3076…
10-25 14:40:36	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x65342f…
10-25 14:40:35	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xe51436…
10-25 14:38:09	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0xf0c7b9…
10-25 14:36:17	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	27	53¢	$14	0x2d5e23…
10-25 14:33:59	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0xbd6066…
10-25 14:24:36	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	37	33¢	$12	0x830f2d…
10-25 14:24:09	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	13	33¢	$4	0xbd2fdc…
10-25 14:22:33	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	150	34¢	$51	0x515f26…
10-24 23:51:35	Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	18	42¢	$8	0x03224b…
10-24 23:51:30	Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	68	42¢	$29	0x59cec9…
10-24 23:51:27	Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xbfeaea…