Insecure-Fire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$59

Unrealized P&L

-$56

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,003

lifetime

Volume

$134.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$134

Open exposure

$136

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-10 03:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

45% — —

Other

29% 100% +$16

Politics

21% — —

Sports

5% 100% +$43

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No		-310	$-81	44¢	$-136	$-56	05-30 15:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	104	$9.7K	11,015	10,632	+382	open	—	01-17 06:48
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	16	$8.1K	4,454	4,320	+134	open	—	02-27 14:07
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	14	$7.9K	5,102	5,002	+100	open	—	02-20 23:44
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	29	$6.8K	4,488	4,488	+0	open	—	01-25 06:51
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	60	$4.9K	5,021	5,006	+16	open	—	02-01 08:17
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	56	$4.8K	5,266	3,967	+1,300	open	—	02-24 13:28
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	9	$4.4K	2,366	2,366	+0	open	—	01-24 03:24
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	6	$4.3K	2,249	2,249	+0	open	—	03-06 03:16
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	56	$4.2K	5,540	6,099	-560	open	—	01-30 09:44
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	49	$4.2K	5,090	4,895	+194	open	—	02-20 11:30
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	9	$4.1K	2,846	3,112	-266	open	—	02-01 12:18
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	4	$3.6K	2,596	2,596	+0	open	—	04-22 03:03
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	11	$2.8K	2,081	2,081	+0	open	—	01-14 16:37
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	12	$2.8K	2,767	2,767	+0	open	—	02-23 14:47
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	16	$2.7K	3,638	3,638	-0	open	—	01-08 12:04
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$2.7K	2,942	2,942	+0	open	—	02-14 10:29
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?	13	$2.5K	3,375	600	+2,775	open	—	01-22 07:14
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	5	$2.2K	1,393	1,393	+0	open	—	04-03 16:44
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	25	$2.1K	1,096	3,386	-2,290	open	—	01-13 06:31
Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026?	7	$1.9K	1,447	1,447	+0	open	—	02-24 15:18
maduro out by march 31 2026 187 483	8	$1.9K	1,058	2,048	-990	open	—	01-03 09:33
footballfun fdv above 70m one day after launch	12	$1.9K	1,050	1,050	+0	open	—	01-16 11:53
Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?	8	$1.7K	1,278	1,278	+0	open	—	02-12 04:47
will ethereum reach 3600 in january 2026	9	$1.6K	1,315	1,315	+0	open	—	01-06 06:11
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$1.5K	909	909	+0	open	—	02-18 17:14
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	8	$1.5K	1,213	1,213	+0	open	—	02-27 15:16
will teyana taylor win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	18	$1.5K	1,928	1,928	+0	open	—	02-13 19:38
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$1.4K	1,590	1,461	+129	open	—	01-24 12:28
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	5	$1.4K	1,756	1,756	+0	open	—	01-30 04:48
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	2	$1.3K	795	795	+0	open	—	02-19 11:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 03:13:36	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	SELL	250	35¢	$88	0x9d7dd3…
06-03 14:03:26	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	SELL	110	64¢	$71	0xda2416…
05-30 15:37:32	Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	310	26¢	$81	0x69257c…
05-29 02:54:58	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	360	65¢	$234	0x41a60e…
05-29 02:53:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x55c636…
04-23 02:58:48	Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	SELL	571	99¢	$567	0xfa64df…
04-22 03:03:46	USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2,596	99¢	$2,570	0x91e8b0…
04-19 13:00:12	Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xd9a788…
04-11 05:40:51	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	SELL	350	99¢	$347	0x783a33…
04-10 14:14:17	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	485	98¢	$477	0x531b8d…
04-03 16:44:35	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	406	90¢	$365	0xacfce9…
03-24 15:09:43	will t lm be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	21	8¢	$2	0xd5572d…
03-24 15:09:43	will t lm be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xce8655…
03-24 15:09:43	will t lm be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	26	8¢	$2	0xafa7a8…
03-24 15:09:43	will t lm be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	163	8¢	$13	0x5f9218…
03-24 15:09:43	will t lm be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	309	8¢	$25	0x300923…
03-20 05:01:55	will the 1st pick in the 2026 pro football draft be a qb	No	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0xa96312…
03-20 02:39:55	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	406	84¢	$340	0x6fe8cb…
03-18 13:44:35	will the miami heat make the nba playoffs 867	No	BUY	197	30¢	$60	0x99ffd2…
03-17 16:59:01	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	SELL	223	83¢	$186	0xf27388…
03-17 05:00:17	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	485	94¢	$458	0x20b5c5…
03-16 03:14:33	nba lal hou 2026 03 16	Rockets	SELL	99	56¢	$55	0xa92df6…
03-15 08:32:15	nba lal hou 2026 03 16	Rockets	BUY	99	50¢	$50	0xe5bb30…
03-14 01:27:13	Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	424	69¢	$293	0x9c9e54…
03-09 06:23:25	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	SELL	136	83¢	$113	0xc9ebb5…
03-07 10:46:31	will weibo gaming win the lpl 2026 split 1 playoffs 552	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0x4a2387…
03-06 03:27:03	will weibo gaming win the lpl 2026 split 1 playoffs 552	No	BUY	101	89¢	$90	0x8c72e2…
03-06 03:16:29	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	SELL	910	95¢	$868	0xad7b73…
03-05 07:30:15	will t lm be the next president of vietnam	No	BUY	529	9¢	$48	0x6c8361…
03-01 16:02:27	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	910	96¢	$870	0x25a575…
03-01 15:59:55	Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	BUY	43	95¢	$41	0x0480a5…
03-01 15:59:01	Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	BUY	608	94¢	$571	0x3c4f93…
02-28 16:15:11	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0xc86bf4…
02-28 12:58:45	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x0d3799…
02-28 02:43:45	Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	424	70¢	$297	0xaaf7ce…
02-28 02:14:31	Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	262	56¢	$148	0xf474f3…
02-28 01:51:09	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	556	91¢	$506	0xf80ea1…
02-27 16:18:01	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	188	88¢	$165	0x7fef19…
02-27 15:16:47	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	330	56¢	$185	0x3a6c3e…
02-27 14:07:21	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	97¢	$107	0x3b1dc8…
02-27 14:06:49	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	237	97¢	$230	0xf9dc1c…
02-27 07:54:55	Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	354	87¢	$309	0x6eb670…
02-26 14:40:04	Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	543	60¢	$326	0xa771f8…
02-26 09:35:22	USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	636	40¢	$253	0x5a08e5…
02-25 19:31:02	Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	191	57¢	$109	0xd29898…
02-25 19:29:34	Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	233	85¢	$198	0xc38f09…
02-25 14:34:26	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	772	93¢	$718	0x9d1e4b…
02-25 11:57:46	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	186	93¢	$173	0x3dc053…
02-25 11:26:40	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	814	93¢	$757	0xd32a28…
02-25 11:26:04	Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	262	24¢	$62	0x509f66…
02-25 10:22:56	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	480	93¢	$445	0x30f32a…
02-24 15:18:26	Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	69¢	$78	0xfa6663…
02-24 13:28:12	Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	324	10¢	$32	0x2e7345…
02-24 13:27:06	Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0x0401af…
02-24 13:26:34	Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	400	10¢	$40	0xd0ed05…
02-24 07:13:18	Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	84¢	$62	0xe1fe5b…
02-23 23:58:34	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	210	87¢	$182	0xdfc969…
02-23 23:58:00	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	87¢	$191	0x00db4b…
02-23 23:56:54	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	86¢	$69	0x468972…
02-23 23:55:52	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	260	87¢	$225	0x373d06…
02-23 23:53:52	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,964	87¢	$1,705	0x711eb3…
02-23 23:49:38	Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	417	2¢	$6	0x8a6ee9…
02-23 14:47:00	Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	SELL	883	73¢	$645	0xa1cede…
02-23 14:17:06	Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xc7ceae…
02-23 11:46:20	Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	884	72¢	$637	0xeb915f…
02-23 11:21:32	Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	79¢	$71	0x650b3d…
02-23 04:01:04	Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	154	36¢	$55	0x7d9f5e…
02-23 04:01:02	Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x05ad07…
02-23 03:01:40	Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	389	37¢	$144	0xe12567…
02-23 02:56:40	Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x93e828…
02-23 02:52:02	Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	131	36¢	$47	0x0530d5…
02-22 14:53:54	Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	417	1¢	$3	0xa09bd1…
02-22 14:47:28	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	770	53¢	$408	0x299805…
02-22 14:47:26	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	88	53¢	$46	0x8f025d…
02-22 14:47:12	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	62	53¢	$33	0x6bf2cf…
02-22 14:47:04	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x2dfbc1…
02-22 14:46:46	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	14	53¢	$8	0xa5f1ec…
02-22 14:46:34	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x0f5785…
02-22 14:46:32	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0xdf13a5…
02-22 11:01:10	Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	1¢	$4	0x02b094…
02-22 01:20:50	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	BUY	709	66¢	$468	0xc3c5a6…
02-20 23:44:00	Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,052	98¢	$1,031	0xda4bc8…
02-20 14:27:30	Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	2¢	$12	0x314edc…
02-20 11:30:46	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	151	61¢	$92	0x1c1668…
02-19 11:22:02	Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	795	81¢	$641	0x39b861…
02-19 10:51:28	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	13	63¢	$8	0x71043d…
02-19 10:01:02	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x2d180c…
02-19 09:59:28	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	11	63¢	$7	0xd816ec…
02-19 09:57:58	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	11	63¢	$7	0x5d9b8a…
02-19 09:41:44	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	126	63¢	$79	0xaf3395…
02-19 06:24:30	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	84	63¢	$53	0x0613bc…
02-19 06:24:20	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	42	63¢	$26	0x46cf01…
02-19 06:24:12	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	41	63¢	$26	0xde64ff…
02-19 06:24:12	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	124	63¢	$78	0x9366ac…
02-19 06:24:06	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x393b13…
02-19 06:20:48	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x8ed0e9…
02-19 06:20:42	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x3ffebe…
02-19 06:19:06	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x1fd902…
02-19 06:19:00	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x0f7426…
02-19 06:17:46	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x33881b…