Honest-Thesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

87.8%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

1,469 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$41

$1.70K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 11-15 09:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 149 days

Categories

Other

54% 74% -$4

Crypto

46% 64% -$19

Tech

0% 75% -$1

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	No		+1	$1	95¢	$1	+$0	11-13 16:16
GitHub Git Operations critical incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes		+1	$1	29¢	$0	-$1	11-10 17:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	3	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	07-20 14:16
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	10-29 15:39
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	4	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	07-14 12:31
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	3	$12	7	7	+0	Up	+$1	10-28 12:42
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	7	$11	9	9	+0	Yes	-$1	04-29 16:03
spx opens up or down on april 21 2026	5	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	04-21 13:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 15:30 UTC	8	$10	11	10	+0	Up	+$3	04-02 15:44
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	5	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	05-08 17:50
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	07-24 09:35
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	4	$9	6	6	+0	No	-$1	11-06 11:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 22:30 UTC	7	$9	64	14	+50	Up	+$1	02-08 22:44
bitcoin up or down april 3 9am et	6	$9	9	7	+2	Down	-$1	04-03 13:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-16 22:15 UTC	9	$9	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	02-16 22:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 14:15 UTC	8	$9	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	04-02 14:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 20:15 UTC	6	$9	8	7	+0	Down	+$3	04-01 20:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-16 13:45 UTC	8	$8	8	8	+0	Down	+$0	02-16 14:00
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	5	$8	4	4	+0	No	+$0	07-15 13:34
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$8	4	4	+0	No	+$0	05-04 10:11
bitcoin up or down april 9 2026 5pm et	8	$8	9	9	+0	Down	+$0	04-09 21:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-19 10:45 UTC	4	$8	4	4	+0	Up	$0	04-19 10:54
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 240 259	8	$8	9	9	+0	Yes	$0	02-17 14:26
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	2	$8	4	4	+0	No	+$0	11-09 21:43
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	6	$7	6	6	+0	No	+$1	08-04 12:38
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	3	$7	4	4	+0	Yes	+$1	05-01 15:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-16 20:30 UTC	7	$7	26	5	+20	Up	-$1	02-16 20:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-16 15:15 UTC	6	$7	7	7	+0	Down	+$1	02-16 15:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 11:00 UTC	6	$7	8	8	+0	Up	+$1	02-17 11:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 20:30 UTC	6	$7	10	9	+0	Down	+$1	04-02 20:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 11:30 UTC	6	$7	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	02-09 11:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 12:30 UTC	6	$7	7	7	+0	Up	+$1	02-17 12:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 09:00:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on November 15?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x167010…
11-15 08:59:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on November 15?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x464821…
11-14 15:47:07	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x732a69…
11-14 15:37:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xe5033b…
11-13 16:16:03	Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xecb5d1…
11-13 16:10:58	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x48436e…
11-13 16:09:36	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xcc90a6…
11-13 11:05:57	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x14cc4e…
11-13 10:35:36	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x5daa80…
11-12 15:36:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on November 12?	Yes	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x4ac52c…
11-12 15:02:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on November 12?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x93e0ff…
11-12 14:58:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x5ceba6…
11-12 14:53:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on November 12?	Yes	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x3326f8…
11-12 14:44:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on November 12?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xfdf3dc…
11-12 14:11:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x40cac4…
11-12 12:04:42	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x1d7efd…
11-11 20:59:25	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on November 11?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x257bdb…
11-11 20:31:06	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on November 11?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9f62a2…
11-10 17:00:34	GitHub Git Operations critical incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xef6c0c…
11-10 12:12:22	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xba93e7…
11-10 08:58:36	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xeee81d…
11-09 21:43:21	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x7cde68…
11-08 23:27:00	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xbc0648…
11-08 23:20:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x3e7bda…
11-08 23:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xc1cdc8…
11-08 23:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x3420b1…
11-08 23:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x6e60d0…
11-08 22:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x59d74e…
11-08 22:49:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x44af03…
11-08 22:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x0ab875…
11-08 22:38:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 8?	Yes	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0x820064…
11-08 22:10:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 8?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7d932c…
11-06 15:27:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xe95223…
11-06 15:26:03	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xba9211…
11-06 12:36:52	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x34ac7a…
11-06 11:25:45	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x7f9f93…
11-06 11:22:01	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x9a374e…
11-05 20:29:51	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x2cec15…
11-05 19:55:57	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xdcc782…
11-03 22:20:40	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbfa15c…
11-03 14:52:57	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x226ed2…
11-03 14:51:22	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x66faa2…
11-03 12:37:58	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x26c7c6…
10-31 07:21:22	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x97941f…
10-30 20:08:09	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x07942a…
10-29 15:39:43	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x15f9c3…
10-29 13:19:34	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x7c1206…
10-28 13:02:44	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8c9e9e…
10-28 12:42:07	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0x0a7f59…
10-28 11:38:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x95ff4b…
10-28 11:37:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$0	0x6ca4a8…
10-16 12:49:22	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x85d79e…
10-07 16:05:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x999356…
10-07 08:26:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8ab08b…
10-06 17:40:51	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x969131…
10-06 08:32:09	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x727f0d…
10-04 19:27:07	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0xc56acf…
10-02 16:05:14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x367376…
10-02 16:00:54	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xdd489c…
10-01 11:21:41	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x9f5cb6…
10-01 07:26:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 07:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8f193c…
09-30 13:42:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 13:40 UTC	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x260955…
09-30 13:40:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 13:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xe6e45a…
09-30 13:38:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb6f68d…
09-30 07:08:06	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8b9151…
09-29 20:15:08	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3bff2b…
09-29 20:14:47	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xe2fef7…
09-28 20:50:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfeadba…
09-28 13:37:14	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8cedfa…
09-28 12:31:17	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xefaf2c…
09-28 12:30:56	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x1b15ce…
09-26 18:52:12	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x1d8bb3…
09-26 17:58:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x208cbe…
09-26 12:13:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x6ac8ae…
09-25 16:42:05	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1bf57c…
09-25 08:40:17	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x010d72…
09-25 07:35:20	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x79aa4a…
09-24 14:37:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 14:35 UTC	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x442f7a…
09-24 14:37:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 14:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xf725a0…
09-24 14:32:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xc8b698…
09-24 10:29:42	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x9ab06f…
09-24 00:10:41	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x4c5ae2…
09-23 20:40:56	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6b0f9e…
09-23 14:41:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x2c7741…
09-23 14:37:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1649ab…
09-23 14:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x394411…
09-23 14:30:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xdaab7c…
09-23 14:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf6e30a…
09-23 14:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x93923b…
09-23 14:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x60f746…
09-23 12:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8dc0a5…
09-23 11:34:28	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xeb2df2…
09-22 15:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x5b735b…
09-22 15:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xc7407d…
09-22 07:53:39	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x68375d…
09-21 08:41:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xdee01a…
09-21 08:40:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 08:40 UTC	Down	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xee394e…
09-21 08:39:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xcf5b99…
09-21 08:35:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 08:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xf3ecac…
09-21 08:34:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x814c4f…