Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$234

Unrealized P&L

+$529

Hit rate

17.6%

Resolved (7d)

263

Trades (7d)

1,014

5,643 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$18.2K

$70.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$6.73K

30 positions

First seen

2026-10-06

last 11-06 02:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Politics

49% 20% -$80

Other

46% 19% -$246

Tech

4% 13% -$41

Sports

1% 0% -$2

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 351 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	+600	$462	96¢	$573	+$111	11-03 01:04
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+465	$342	80¢	$370	+$28	10-16 18:55
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+555	$360	64¢	$358	-$3	11-05 00:50
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+600	$390	56¢	$339	-$51	11-05 01:05
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	No	+366	$324	90¢	$329	+$6	11-02 21:23
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	+351	$289	87¢	$305	+$16	11-06 00:12
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	No	+301	$257	92¢	$275	+$19	11-04 22:02
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	+321	$244	84¢	$268	+$24	11-05 21:29
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+600	$214	44¢	$261	+$47	11-05 01:05
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+365	$252	72¢	$261	+$9	11-01 18:31
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	No	+395	$243	62¢	$243	+$0	11-05 22:10
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+314	$172	72¢	$224	+$52	11-02 04:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	+351	$197	63¢	$221	+$24	11-05 19:03
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+350	$193	56¢	$198	+$4	11-03 21:17
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	+554	$202	36¢	$197	-$5	11-05 00:50
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	No	+200	$160	89¢	$178	+$18	11-02 02:35
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	+235	$164	74¢	$173	+$9	11-04 09:00
Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	+216	$177	80¢	$172	-$5	11-05 11:42
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+212	$133	78¢	$164	+$31	10-30 02:05
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	+223	$184	72¢	$162	-$22	10-22 06:16
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	No	+200	$166	80¢	$161	-$5	11-03 12:08
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	+395	$154	38¢	$152	-$2	11-05 22:10
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+348	$158	44¢	$151	-$7	11-03 21:17
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	+202	$155	72¢	$146	-$9	11-04 15:43
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?	No	+147	$63	99¢	$146	+$83	10-31 03:27
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	No	+201	$137	72¢	$143	+$6	11-03 21:57
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?	No	+144	$58	99¢	$143	+$85	10-31 11:22
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	+171	$122	82¢	$141	+$20	11-02 18:17
Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	No	+150	$120	92¢	$137	+$17	10-24 01:16
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	+160	$107	86¢	$137	+$30	10-08 05:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	6	$608	1,201	0	+1,201	open	—	11-03 01:04
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	8	$604	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	11-05 01:05
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	14	$562	1,108	0	+1,108	open	—	11-05 00:50
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	26	$469	944	0	+944	open	—	10-16 18:55
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	21	$411	782	48	+734	open	—	11-01 18:31
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	4	$397	790	0	+790	open	—	11-05 22:10
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	15	$372	727	0	+727	No	-$9	10-08 18:57
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	4	$368	731	0	+731	open	—	11-02 21:23
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	10	$362	701	0	+701	open	—	11-06 00:12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	16	$355	701	0	+701	open	—	11-05 19:03
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	8	$352	698	0	+698	open	—	11-03 21:17
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	19	$326	641	0	+641	open	—	11-05 21:29
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	16	$321	628	0	+628	open	—	11-02 04:15
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	7	$306	601	0	+601	open	—	11-04 22:02
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	14	$279	430	67	+363	Yes	-$7	10-07 23:35
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	18	$273	542	0	+542	Yes	-$2	10-14 07:59
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	12	$264	451	50	+401	open	—	11-03 21:57
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	16	$260	487	10	+477	No	-$9	10-10 17:03
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	13	$258	497	50	+447	open	—	11-02 19:19
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	14	$253	504	0	+504	Yes	-$4	10-09 00:14
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	11	$239	351	50	+301	open	—	10-31 14:15
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	12	$238	466	0	+466	open	—	11-04 09:00
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	11	$233	354	50	+304	No	-$5	10-10 11:50
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	10	$226	450	50	+400	open	—	11-02 02:35
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	9	$223	410	6	+403	No	-$11	10-22 08:40
Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?	6	$222	432	0	+432	open	—	11-05 11:42
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	9	$220	350	50	+300	open	—	10-26 20:16
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?	10	$219	436	0	+436	Yes	-$1	10-31 09:08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	10	$217	426	0	+426	open	—	10-30 02:05
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	8	$211	423	0	+423	open	—	11-03 16:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 02:40:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	6	61¢	$4	0x0118fb…
11-06 01:24:07	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x22a4d4…
11-06 01:24:06	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0xe1812d…
11-06 00:12:45	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x5120b3…
11-06 00:12:43	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x257dbc…
11-06 00:03:24	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xdaf233…
11-06 00:03:22	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$43	0xecc0e3…
11-05 23:56:06	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	101	84¢	$85	0x3e7d47…
11-05 23:56:06	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x292210…
11-05 23:46:42	Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xfcc9ac…
11-05 23:46:40	Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xbf88c3…
11-05 23:11:06	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	BUY	51	33¢	$17	0xfffa4a…
11-05 23:11:06	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x0578e4…
11-05 22:27:07	Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0xc6afa4…
11-05 22:27:07	Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x23f695…
11-05 22:10:48	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	195	62¢	$121	0x3d2687…
11-05 22:10:48	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0x1c6468…
11-05 22:02:21	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xacdb77…
11-05 22:02:21	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	195	40¢	$78	0x348bd2…
11-05 21:50:46	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$43	0x7c86ba…
11-05 21:50:46	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x50ea81…
11-05 21:34:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0xffe278…
11-05 21:34:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	43	42¢	$18	0x869bc3…
11-05 21:34:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x00ce7a…
11-05 21:34:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x8f1dad…
11-05 21:34:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xb8bac5…
11-05 21:29:39	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xc7d494…
11-05 21:29:39	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x33a10d…
11-05 20:42:18	Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xe2aed7…
11-05 20:42:18	Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x6aa1f3…
11-05 19:36:51	Government shutdown by December 12?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x3a1f7e…
11-05 19:03:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x9f4994…
11-05 19:03:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x5eb59e…
11-05 18:49:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xce3cf9…
11-05 18:49:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	17¢	$15	0xb21e85…
11-05 18:49:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x635399…
11-05 18:37:55	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	22	81¢	$18	0xac6c73…
11-05 18:37:51	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	19¢	$4	0x480fb7…
11-05 18:30:58	Government shutdown by December 12?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0xccdb0f…
11-05 17:15:39	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xcc0332…
11-05 17:15:39	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x579f69…
11-05 15:54:18	Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$11	0xe5a8ed…
11-05 15:54:18	Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x350815…
11-05 15:46:34	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x1c03f7…
11-05 15:46:34	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	30¢	$14	0x0a0276…
11-05 15:33:46	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in September 2026 be between -0.2% and -0.1%?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xc63d17…
11-05 15:07:03	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xf709e8…
11-05 15:07:03	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x859fca…
11-05 11:42:18	Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	56	76¢	$42	0xcc858d…
11-05 11:42:18	Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	BUY	60	30¢	$18	0x26ed40…
11-05 09:20:06	Will Anthropic raise between $85B and $95B in its IPO?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0xf06e98…
11-05 09:20:06	Will Anthropic raise between $85B and $95B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	49	33¢	$16	0xb19a50…
11-05 08:58:46	Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?	No	BUY	60	45¢	$27	0xb4e1e1…
11-05 08:27:42	Government shutdown by December 12?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x1048bb…
11-05 08:19:22	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xfa5296…
11-05 08:19:22	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xf6fea0…
11-05 08:19:22	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	23	59¢	$14	0xae4582…
11-05 08:19:22	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0x8fb79b…
11-05 07:43:55	Will the Republicans win Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0xda7ab7…
11-05 04:07:46	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	11¢	$2	0xe965f9…
11-05 02:35:12	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$45	0x8240ab…
11-05 02:35:12	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x4210c7…
11-05 01:49:10	Will "Runway" from The Devil Wears Prada 2 be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0xed7706…
11-05 01:05:00	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0x3bf16c…
11-05 01:05:00	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x1cc325…
11-05 00:54:48	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x70b4d3…
11-05 00:50:37	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x7b3722…
11-05 00:50:37	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x616e8d…
11-05 00:29:43	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in September 2026 be between -0.2% and -0.1%?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xaa1cd9…
11-04 22:10:21	Will the Democrats win Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xa3b841…
11-04 22:10:19	Will the Democrats win Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xd215be…
11-04 22:02:06	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x7bc634…
11-04 22:02:06	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x67c7c8…
11-04 21:00:43	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x573f47…
11-04 21:00:43	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x318a48…
11-04 19:06:27	Will the Republicans win Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xd20998…
11-04 16:08:37	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x4f79fa…
11-04 16:08:36	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xaf5d2c…
11-04 16:08:36	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x647169…
11-04 15:43:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x5b7c16…
11-04 15:43:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	202	77¢	$155	0x0f0c7b…
11-04 15:35:10	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x05a294…
11-04 15:29:18	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	SELL	15	58¢	$9	0x91e15b…
11-04 15:29:07	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	SELL	30	58¢	$17	0x7e5054…
11-04 14:40:07	Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x4cc290…
11-04 14:40:07	Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$41	0x4553ae…
11-04 13:30:42	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the February meeting?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xf77412…
11-04 13:21:10	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	Yes	SELL	19	30¢	$6	0x869d44…
11-04 10:52:18	Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x2b38fd…
11-04 10:52:16	Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xcab166…
11-04 10:33:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0xdc5123…
11-04 10:33:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x1c34a0…
11-04 09:46:39	Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x4c8a0b…
11-04 09:46:37	Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xe509cc…
11-04 09:00:28	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	29¢	$28	0xbdbf67…
11-04 09:00:28	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x02807f…
11-04 08:54:07	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0x4e26df…
11-04 08:54:06	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	23	79¢	$18	0x8cec4d…
11-04 08:54:06	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	27	21¢	$6	0x10abdd…
11-04 08:54:04	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0x916469…