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Realized P&L
—
Unrealized P&L
-$4
Hit rate
—
Resolved
0
Trades
163
lifetime
Volume
$1.74K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$849
30 positions
First seen
2026-11-11
last 11-12 10:43
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Other
64% — —
Politics
20% — —
Tech
11% — —
Pop-Culture
3% — —
Sports
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
2 active days in 12wk • peak 126 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher? Yes +50 $50 100¢ $50 $0 11-12 01:10
Will "FRESH" first week sales be at least 120k? No +50 $48 98¢ $49 +$1 11-11 23:48
Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 92? Yes +49 $49 96¢ $48 -$1 11-12 11:20
Ossoff's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31? No +50 $46 94¢ $47 +$0 11-12 02:52
Another candidate is the 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30? Yes +50 $41 81¢ $41 -$1 11-11 23:00
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run by March 31, 2027? No +49 $37 82¢ $40 +$3 11-12 04:12
Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? No +50 $40 78¢ $39 -$1 11-12 10:03
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance? No +50 $41 78¢ $39 -$2 11-11 23:29
Will Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” sell for between $60m and $70m at auction? No +48 $40 80¢ $39 -$2 11-12 09:57
Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI? Yes +50 $38 76¢ $38 +$0 11-12 06:36
Will Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026? No +50 $38 68¢ $34 -$4 11-11 22:43
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? Yes +43 $28 66¢ $28 $0 11-11 23:25
Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No +30 $28 92¢ $27 $0 11-12 08:38
Will the next Israeli government hold fewer than 58 seats? Yes +38 $26 70¢ $27 +$1 11-11 21:17
Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by November 30? No +49 $24 51¢ $25 +$1 11-12 00:04
Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by November 30? Yes +50 $27 49¢ $24 -$2 11-12 00:04
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? No +32 $21 65¢ $21 $0 11-12 06:29
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027? No +30 $20 66¢ $20 +$0 11-11 23:42
Will IShowSpeed win Best IRL Streamer at the 2026 Streamer Awards? Yes +20 $19 94¢ $19 +$0 11-12 02:49
Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 18, 2026? No +20 $18 93¢ $19 +$0 11-12 00:46
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 20, 2026? No — +20 $16 94¢ $19 +$3 11-12 09:53
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027? No +20 $18 90¢ $18 +$0 11-12 07:37
Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the January meeting? No +20 $18 89¢ $18 +$0 11-11 23:01
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November? Yes +19 $18 93¢ $18 $0 11-12 08:10
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? Yes +20 $17 88¢ $18 +$0 11-11 20:55
Will there be 35 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 30? No +20 $18 89¢ $17 $0 11-12 07:27
NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 adjusted gross margin 73% to 75%? Yes +20 $17 86¢ $17 +$0 11-12 02:15
Will the Bank of Russia announce no change at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +20 $17 86¢ $17 +$0 11-12 10:17
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision? No +20 $17 85¢ $17 $0 11-12 10:11
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? No +20 $16 84¢ $17 +$1 11-12 10:08