Outrageous-Signify — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$56

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

148

Trades

182

lifetime

Volume

$4.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$204

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-24 20:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

43% 100% +$12

Politics

27% 100% +$13

Crypto

22% 100% +$30

Tech

7% 100% +$1

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		+220	$199	88¢	$195	-$4	10-22 13:27
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+10	$9	91¢	$9	+$0	10-24 20:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$356	179	179	+0	No	+$1	09-07 12:19
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$283	144	144	+0	No	+$5	09-01 06:51
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$199	220	0	+220	open	—	10-22 13:27
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	1	$179	179	0	+179	Yes	+$1	09-10 19:05
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	1	$173	173	0	+173	No	+$0	09-16 02:28
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$159	159	0	+159	No	+$0	08-06 15:30
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	1	$152	152	0	+152	Yes	+$0	08-12 00:28
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$151	152	0	+152	No	+$1	08-15 18:05
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$150	152	0	+152	No	+$2	08-10 12:00
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$147	149	0	+149	Yes	+$1	08-18 21:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$140	141	0	+141	No	+$1	08-21 21:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$133	133	0	+133	Yes	+$0	05-30 11:35
gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	1	$119	120	0	+120	No	+$0	06-26 03:28
cap fdv above 400m one day after launch	1	$116	117	0	+117	No	+$1	06-27 08:57
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$114	116	0	+116	No	+$2	05-28 22:11
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$105	115	0	+115	Yes	+$10	05-26 05:38
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$104	105	0	+105	No	+$1	05-15 14:22
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$102	104	0	+104	Yes	+$1	05-14 20:28
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$100	103	0	+103	Yes	+$2	05-11 03:19
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$99	102	0	+102	Yes	+$3	08-05 08:18
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$88	89	0	+89	Yes	+$0	05-04 19:50
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	1	$67	67	0	+67	No	+$0	10-16 01:58
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$65	66	0	+66	Yes	+$1	08-04 19:49
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$64	64	0	+64	No	+$0	06-29 18:27
grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	1	$48	60	0	+60	Yes	+$12	07-28 04:51
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$45	23	23	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 21:58
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	3	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	10-08 05:38
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	1	$36	41	0	+41	Yes	+$5	05-03 12:57
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	06-29 04:25
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	05-05 07:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 20:06:45	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xb5e372…
10-22 13:27:48	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	71	87¢	$62	0x24f95d…
10-19 16:12:59	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0xfafa8b…
10-16 01:58:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0x5773d2…
10-14 22:26:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x608dc1…
10-08 05:38:53	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x9149e8…
10-06 13:43:01	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x5761a2…
10-06 12:37:45	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$14	0x3b1e13…
10-05 12:10:56	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5c2020…
10-04 21:58:10	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$22	0x32dfa5…
10-04 02:53:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x90e286…
10-03 16:41:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$22	0xf5647a…
09-30 18:24:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x74c998…
09-30 12:44:48	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x4e63de…
09-29 22:23:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x7f3b77…
09-25 17:34:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x7d3f36…
09-24 09:46:56	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	149	92¢	$137	0x04c298…
09-23 11:07:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x610d85…
09-23 00:40:05	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2fb36b…
09-22 06:41:25	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x700119…
09-19 19:07:32	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x33223b…
09-16 02:28:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	173	100¢	$173	0x876ff8…
09-11 06:11:24	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x11a77d…
09-10 19:05:57	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	179	99¢	$179	0x64d662…
09-07 12:19:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	179	100¢	$179	0xa08cbf…
09-04 05:05:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	179	99¢	$177	0xc576cc…
09-01 06:51:34	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	144	100¢	$144	0xee0a2b…
09-01 01:08:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x005717…
08-31 15:08:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xadf3dd…
08-28 11:15:16	will bitcoin dip to 65k in august 2026 from august 19	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0bf3ad…
08-27 05:50:19	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	144	96¢	$139	0xb651d0…
08-24 10:39:52	Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x30366a…
08-21 21:52:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	141	100¢	$140	0x946545…
08-21 19:44:10	will xagusd dip to 48 in august 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0ce63a…
08-19 16:13:28	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x35a539…
08-18 21:31:22	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	149	99¢	$147	0x00855b…
08-16 15:15:54	will wti reach 130 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x80640f…
08-16 13:03:37	will ethereum dip to 1100 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa2e4bf…
08-15 18:05:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	152	99¢	$151	0x94a68b…
08-12 14:10:03	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x104dfe…
08-12 00:28:33	Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0x2bc644…
08-10 12:00:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0x546612…
08-10 05:26:15	will bitcoin dip to 45k in august 2026	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x8f7114…
08-07 16:34:12	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcc0bf9…
08-06 15:30:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0xd4296c…
08-05 18:05:33	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc7fbd8…
08-05 08:18:57	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	102	97¢	$99	0x22f662…
08-04 19:49:29	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x313257…
07-29 17:06:39	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x558b17…
07-28 06:53:22	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x910770…
07-28 04:51:46	grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xe5faf2…
07-27 15:17:25	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xe32e19…
07-26 20:56:24	will wti reach 115 in july 2026	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x44478c…
07-26 18:44:09	will xauusd dip to 3700 in july 2026	No	BUY	12	99¢	$11	0x3baf49…
07-26 05:41:25	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xb92abd…
07-24 12:03:12	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc8edaf…
07-19 16:58:01	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd85b56…
07-17 09:59:06	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0x2dc319…
07-17 06:50:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf15ee8…
07-16 19:43:53	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$3	0xd853ac…
07-16 16:23:16	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1041fc…
07-11 09:40:13	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x09b980…
07-10 13:01:17	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb74bbc…
07-05 01:50:35	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x08e31e…
07-01 22:19:52	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x502c07…
06-29 18:27:23	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x26c251…
06-29 15:33:52	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xebd04f…
06-29 07:21:55	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xdf4832…
06-29 04:25:28	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xd1761b…
06-29 01:21:44	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x55b5d4…
06-27 08:57:47	cap fdv above 400m one day after launch	No	BUY	117	99¢	$116	0xf55eac…
06-26 05:26:05	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x360100…
06-26 03:28:55	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	120	100¢	$119	0x2438c6…
06-26 01:21:41	Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xeb1fb8…
05-30 18:35:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd02a49…
05-30 11:35:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xabfeb1…
05-29 05:35:17	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x996fc9…
05-28 22:11:29	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	116	99¢	$114	0xfe81f9…
05-26 05:38:16	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	115	91¢	$105	0x044aea…
05-16 02:47:39	Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x46672b…
05-15 14:22:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x0c38a8…
05-14 20:28:21	Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	104	99¢	$102	0xf369ef…
05-11 03:19:39	Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	103	98¢	$100	0x843ead…
05-11 02:37:12	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x26daa2…
05-10 13:01:48	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x295c44…
05-10 05:47:25	Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdaff7d…
05-09 23:17:15	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9dbccf…
05-09 15:49:13	Will Solana reach $160 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4bc5c3…
05-09 05:07:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x251069…
05-07 03:27:02	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa4828b…
05-06 12:14:10	Will Solana dip to $50 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xacf479…
05-05 07:11:14	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x8a91f9…
05-04 19:50:04	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	89	100¢	$88	0x909515…
05-04 15:08:50	Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf3521d…
05-04 11:53:22	Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x44c34c…
05-03 12:57:20	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0xbab81d…
05-03 09:08:44	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x628dc4…
05-02 04:33:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe8d9b3…
04-27 21:38:06	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xcd7de7…
04-25 22:55:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xbe87bb…