Lost-Forebear — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.27K

Unrealized P&L

+$143

Hit rate

73.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$15.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$214

Open exposure

$32

1 position

First seen

2026-03-29

last 06-14 22:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Politics

86% 25% +$4,416

Other

14% 0% -$2,075

Crypto

0% 0% -$50

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$10

Tech

0% 0% -$10

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-14).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes		-1,090	-$174	3¢	$-32	+$143	05-04 16:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$3.8K	3,333	3,333	+0	Yes	+$2,786	04-07 23:26
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$2.8K	6,795	6,795	+0	Yes	+$1,741	04-07 22:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$1.4K	2,697	0	+2,697	No	-$1,352	04-18 10:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.2K	1,126	1,126	+0	Yes	+$1,025	05-09 05:03
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	3	$1.1K	600	600	+0	Yes	+$77	04-11 17:37
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	8	$1.1K	621	593	+28	Yes	+$60	04-13 13:15
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	3	$537	469	469	+0	Yes	+$218	04-15 15:57
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$404	619	260	+359	Yes	+$362	04-15 15:53
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	1	$300	457	0	+457	No	-$300	04-17 16:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$300	537	0	+537	No	-$300	04-16 22:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	2	$298	2,339	0	+2,339	No	-$298	03-29 23:10
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$297	1,100	0	+1,100	No	-$297	04-08 04:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	1	$200	1,055	0	+1,055	No	-$200	04-16 22:44
Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?	1	$200	454	0	+454	No	-$200	04-07 23:59
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	1	$174	0	1,090	-1,090	open	—	05-04 16:07
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	1	$100	910	0	+910	No	-$100	04-17 16:09
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?	1	$100	11,205	0	+11,205	No	-$100	05-11 14:56
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	1	$100	3,197	0	+3,197	No	-$100	05-11 14:56
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?	1	$100	914	0	+914	Yes	-$100	04-07 23:37
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$100	3,333	0	+3,333	No	-$100	05-04 19:10
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	1	$62	0	240	-240	Yes	-$178	06-11 20:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	1	$50	605	0	+605	No	-$50	05-08 20:05
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	1	$50	555	0	+555	No	-$50	04-17 16:01
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	1	$30	600	0	+600	No	-$30	04-01 16:09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	1	$22	180	0	+180	No	-$22	05-25 01:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$20	80	0	+80	No	-$20	06-14 22:34
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	1	$20	1,250	0	+1,250	No	-$20	04-17 15:11
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$20	614	0	+614	No	-$20	05-14 20:45
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	1	$20	408	0	+408	No	-$20	04-17 16:08
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	4	$19	340	0	+340	No	-$19	05-24 03:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 22:42:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	47	2¢	$1	0x16c010…
06-14 22:34:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x4b9000…
06-12 15:12:21	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x759ea3…
06-12 11:59:12	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	105	4¢	$5	0x42615b…
06-11 20:26:07	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	240	26¢	$62	0x6c25be…
06-01 18:02:39	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x232703…
05-25 01:31:14	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	BUY	180	12¢	$22	0xeef558…
05-24 03:59:02	Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	BUY	115	6¢	$6	0x7129da…
05-24 03:25:29	Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0xe68c50…
05-24 02:12:19	Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	BUY	221	5¢	$12	0xeaa6c7…
05-24 02:12:19	Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x57827e…
05-20 23:22:59	Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x1435df…
05-18 09:49:41	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	BUY	243	2¢	$5	0xe4a038…
05-18 09:47:04	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?	Yes	BUY	236	4¢	$10	0x3e038a…
05-17 13:53:01	Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x197d40…
05-17 13:50:34	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	310	3¢	$10	0xd90b5a…
05-15 11:44:56	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x629b2e…
05-14 20:45:49	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	614	3¢	$20	0x840f42…
05-14 20:44:27	Will Trump Leave China on May 16?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0xa77ac3…
05-14 16:25:56	Will Trump Leave China on May 14?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x10df6b…
05-14 16:25:34	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	263	4¢	$10	0x35053e…
05-11 14:56:23	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11,205	1¢	$100	0x0bd0b2…
05-11 14:56:14	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,197	3¢	$100	0x87c7ad…
05-09 05:03:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,126	100¢	$1,125	0xd7ba78…
05-08 20:05:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	605	8¢	$50	0xf4d621…
05-04 19:10:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,333	3¢	$100	0xc4d600…
05-04 16:07:12	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,090	16¢	$174	0x8b7b7b…
04-18 10:16:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	1,100	32¢	$352	0x0d4941…
04-17 16:22:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,126	9¢	$100	0x711c4f…
04-17 16:14:36	Will the People's Bank of China increase rates in April?	Yes	BUY	632	2¢	$10	0x772009…
04-17 16:09:20	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	910	11¢	$100	0x6dca13…
04-17 16:08:24	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	408	5¢	$20	0xdbe93d…
04-17 16:03:32	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	BUY	457	66¢	$300	0x6b78d9…
04-17 16:01:36	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	BUY	555	9¢	$50	0x4d1123…
04-17 15:11:40	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,250	2¢	$20	0xd260b8…
04-17 04:38:14	Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x7c25eb…
04-17 04:30:20	Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xb5e763…
04-16 22:44:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,055	19¢	$200	0x879686…
04-16 22:41:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	537	56¢	$300	0x374def…
04-15 15:57:54	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	258	80¢	$207	0x3044fd…
04-15 15:54:32	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	211	81¢	$171	0x338fff…
04-15 15:53:58	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	260	78¢	$204	0x7b6fd6…
04-14 19:39:04	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	619	32¢	$200	0x5d0c3b…
04-14 19:38:20	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	469	34¢	$159	0xf85689…
04-13 13:15:33	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	325	96¢	$312	0x7cec91…
04-12 12:09:13	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	96¢	$245	0x8c7886…
04-11 17:38:47	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0x467989…
04-11 17:37:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	600	100¢	$599	0x448110…
04-08 04:43:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	987	27¢	$266	0x7751e5…
04-08 04:43:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	113	27¢	$31	0xad9bcc…
04-07 23:59:11	Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	454	44¢	$200	0x59cfb9…
04-07 23:48:03	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	470	85¢	$400	0x6559a6…
04-07 23:47:05	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	82¢	$100	0x2ccff4…
04-07 23:44:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	1,597	63¢	$1,000	0x3600f3…
04-07 23:40:49	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	No	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x374197…
04-07 23:37:15	Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	914	11¢	$100	0x3e132b…
04-07 23:35:39	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	508	87¢	$442	0x25a9e7…
04-07 23:35:23	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	92	87¢	$80	0xc07cdb…
04-07 23:28:39	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x37bb0b…
04-07 23:27:39	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	No	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x5818bc…
04-07 23:26:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	3,333	99¢	$3,286	0xdc2c50…
04-07 22:20:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	6,795	33¢	$2,256	0x490cf0…
04-03 09:18:51	will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	No	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x66a34c…
04-01 16:09:29	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x88d46f…
03-29 23:10:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,519	13¢	$200	0x4ab0b1…
03-29 23:09:36	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	3,750	8¢	$300	0x929eeb…
03-29 23:09:18	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	3,333	15¢	$500	0x859439…
03-29 23:03:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	BUY	821	12¢	$98	0x0ceabf…
03-29 22:46:00	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	2,759	7¢	$196	0xe3d3ba…
03-29 22:38:18	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0xf3c34b…