Tricky-Razor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9.26K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.47K

Hit rate

95.0%

Resolved

Trades

837

lifetime

Volume

$707.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$845

Open exposure

$22.3K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-12 17:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

64% 72% +$3,483

Politics

34% 92% +$5,531

Sports

1% 100% +$247

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+8,889	$8,267	92¢	$8.2K	-$44	10-06 15:37
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	+7,000	$4,090	70¢	$4.9K	+$810	10-12 17:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+4,000	$3,320	94¢	$3.8K	+$440	10-06 15:39
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	+4,000	$2,400	84¢	$3.3K	+$940	05-27 01:54
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	+1,500	$1,155	96¢	$1.4K	+$285	05-27 23:12
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	+1,000	$620	66¢	$660	+$40	10-07 13:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	289	$214.1K	87,000	127,998	-40,998	No	+$463	01-25 08:18
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	34	$84.7K	42,423	42,900	-477	No	+$546	02-19 14:41
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	19	$61.6K	58,074	6,134	+51,940	Yes	+$2,131	01-22 00:53
trump out as president by march 31	97	$59.0K	60,543	0	+60,543	No	+$1,507	03-16 15:41
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$49.5K	25,000	25,000	+0	No	+$415	03-16 14:25
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	30	$45.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	Yes	+$4,210	02-19 15:32
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	1	$29.9K	30,000	0	+30,000	Yes	+$60	02-08 15:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	28	$25.6K	28,406	0	+28,406	No	+$2,842	03-22 09:21
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	41	$24.3K	0	24,586	-24,586	No	-$243	06-17 23:26
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	60	$20.7K	11,000	10,000	+1,000	No	+$159	01-25 13:16
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	22	$16.2K	12,100	4,500	+7,600	No	+$280	03-02 14:49
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?	47	$10.3K	10,500	0	+10,500	No	+$247	02-24 13:26
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	21	$9.6K	4,999	4,999	+0	No	+$350	02-02 13:52
US recession by end of 2026?	3	$8.3K	8,889	0	+8,889	open	—	10-06 15:37
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	2	$4.6K	3,000	2,000	+1,000	No	+$160	03-01 02:30
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	41	$4.5K	4,000	3,000	+1,000	Yes	-$680	04-01 22:09
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	31	$4.1K	7,000	0	+7,000	open	—	10-12 17:36
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	2	$3.9K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$68	02-19 15:20
AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	2	$3.9K	3,359	1,451	+1,908	open	—	10-06 15:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$3.3K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	10-06 15:39
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	7	$2.4K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	05-27 01:54
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?	1	$2.2K	2,500	0	+2,500	No	+$250	06-01 15:10
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	3	$2.2K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	-$2,190	01-18 17:26
nvda above 210 on january 30 2026	9	$2.1K	2,121	0	+2,121	No	+$34	01-24 20:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$2.0K	2,300	2,300	+0	Yes	-$1,037	09-13 11:54
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	3	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$102	02-11 16:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	3	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$180	03-04 19:13
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$1.7K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$260	01-21 15:39
tesla launches unsupervised full self driving fsd by march 31	3	$1.3K	1,500	0	+1,500	Yes	-$1,275	01-17 05:50
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of August 24 2026?	1	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	No	+$40	08-28 14:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 17:36:53	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	41	75¢	$31	0x9c0f48…
10-11 17:04:07	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x44c262…
10-10 23:26:55	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x7e537f…
10-08 15:55:33	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	26	75¢	$19	0x69d41c…
10-08 13:21:41	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x4c371a…
10-07 19:51:43	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x03732e…
10-07 17:20:40	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xe23b60…
10-07 17:02:38	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x599fdd…
10-07 13:41:49	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x4a134e…
10-07 13:28:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	62¢	$8	0x31f747…
10-07 13:28:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	170	62¢	$106	0xfefdeb…
10-07 10:51:26	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x3560c0…
10-07 09:27:03	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	48	75¢	$36	0x20724f…
10-07 07:51:29	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xd649f9…
10-06 15:43:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	816	62¢	$506	0x623c41…
10-06 15:40:41	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1,451	82¢	$1,195	0x78f820…
10-06 15:39:54	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	3,359	81¢	$2,721	0x92944a…
10-06 15:39:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,000	83¢	$3,320	0xa89bf9…
10-06 15:37:14	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x470d99…
10-06 15:37:12	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	8,842	93¢	$8,223	0x7682af…
10-06 15:37:12	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	46	93¢	$42	0x528825…
10-06 15:35:36	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,795	75¢	$2,096	0xffc5ee…
09-13 11:54:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2,300	21¢	$483	0x908ab9…
08-28 14:32:01	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of August 24 2026?	No	BUY	1,200	97¢	$1,160	0xb5e886…
08-28 14:07:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,500	64¢	$960	0x06c346…
08-28 13:55:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	800	70¢	$560	0xb5bf65…
08-04 14:09:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0x291c65…
08-04 13:34:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x776949…
08-04 13:11:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x015583…
08-03 13:44:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xc606a4…
08-03 13:44:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x769911…
08-03 13:41:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x5cfacf…
08-03 13:36:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xf6c344…
06-17 23:26:53	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,121	100¢	$2,110	0x30dbdd…
06-17 23:24:40	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,110	100¢	$1,104	0x4cbfa5…
06-17 23:20:44	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	599	100¢	$596	0xddbfd6…
06-17 23:18:26	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	230	100¢	$229	0xe97027…
06-17 21:02:58	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$84	0x8a87b1…
06-17 20:51:56	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	303	100¢	$302	0xddb5ca…
06-17 20:29:08	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0a4259…
06-17 19:24:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x07eb32…
06-17 19:20:44	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x81539e…
06-17 19:09:38	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4126e4…
06-17 19:07:14	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xeeca8c…
06-17 19:01:31	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x91994a…
06-17 17:55:29	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x55e76a…
06-17 17:21:50	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdb6d3b…
06-17 17:19:10	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x35b949…
06-17 17:17:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6d3735…
06-17 17:05:55	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x764e56…
06-17 16:49:37	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x16a33b…
06-17 16:46:25	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbb5684…
06-17 16:31:31	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3334c4…
06-17 16:11:58	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf395e7…
06-17 16:08:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,393	100¢	$2,381	0x3a3182…
06-17 16:02:11	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xb1a6c9…
06-17 15:41:25	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2e238c…
06-17 15:35:14	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1758a5…
06-17 15:32:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	500	78¢	$390	0xa729e0…
06-17 15:26:31	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,568	100¢	$2,555	0xddc52b…
06-01 15:10:02	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?	No	BUY	2,500	90¢	$2,250	0x444089…
06-01 15:08:17	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,564	99¢	$3,532	0xf3b743…
06-01 15:08:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	501	99¢	$496	0x867ee4…
06-01 15:08:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	492	99¢	$487	0x419bf9…
06-01 15:08:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	443	99¢	$439	0x17ff14…
05-28 19:00:46	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,483	46¢	$1,142	0xd32a3b…
05-28 16:55:02	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xa386fe…
05-28 11:31:57	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	46¢	$460	0xc8e9ec…
05-28 08:25:07	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0xc5bc23…
05-27 23:12:43	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	576	77¢	$444	0x8b3694…
05-27 22:20:26	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x13ea96…
05-27 22:19:38	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x4beed1…
05-27 22:18:25	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5d867a…
05-27 22:15:30	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2bc53b…
05-27 22:14:51	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x1c2111…
05-27 22:11:11	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x4a9fd0…
05-27 22:08:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb6a935…
05-27 22:02:22	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x7d5669…
05-27 17:15:17	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	310	77¢	$239	0xadcb92…
05-27 15:55:50	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x5730e6…
05-27 15:54:21	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x4a0c15…
05-27 12:31:31	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0x75643f…
05-27 11:14:21	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x4410f6…
05-27 06:26:39	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0xe4220f…
05-27 06:25:45	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x4d2c94…
05-27 02:35:53	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xc3716d…
05-27 01:54:23	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,247	60¢	$748	0xaed9f5…
05-27 01:35:36	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	415	46¢	$191	0x8cc12a…
05-26 20:23:44	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x3161de…
05-26 19:41:51	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	565	77¢	$435	0x2ab81d…
05-26 17:54:27	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,946	98¢	$1,917	0xc9e2c3…
05-26 17:00:28	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	994	98¢	$979	0xc9357d…
05-26 16:47:59	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x125679…
05-26 16:40:36	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x7677ce…
05-26 16:34:55	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x2982fa…
05-26 16:34:52	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x780073…
05-26 16:34:48	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	60¢	$1,200	0x2ea75d…
05-26 16:19:05	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	667	99¢	$657	0x0378f1…
05-26 16:08:40	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	67	99¢	$66	0xb4f7d7…
05-26 15:54:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	236	98¢	$233	0x235e3e…