Nippy-Reluctance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$279

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

57.0%

Resolved

1,751

Trades

4,554

lifetime

Volume

$12.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 09-16 02:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 78 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 54% -$23

Other

21% 46% -$197

Sports

2% 39% -$26

Politics

1% 38% -$33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No		-4	-$4	97¢	$-4	$0	04-30 13:21
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		-2	-$2	98¢	$-2	$0	04-29 21:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26?	13	$185	250	239	+11	Yes	-$23	06-25 21:25
bitcoin above 78k on april 17	4	$140	500	464	+36	No	+$136	04-17 14:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	32	$118	279	279	+0	Down	+$38	05-05 21:09
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 15?	7	$106	91	91	+0	Yes	+$67	07-15 02:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	32	$90	258	383	-125	Down	+$29	05-04 19:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	25	$81	177	177	+0	Down	+$12	05-05 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	27	$76	242	232	+10	Down	+$17	05-05 20:08
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 7?	3	$76	150	0	+150	No	-$76	07-06 20:24
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 6?	4	$75	45	45	+0	No	+$15	07-06 20:53
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?	3	$61	41	41	+0	No	+$21	07-02 18:26
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 15?	2	$60	50	50	+0	No	-$3	07-15 02:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	15	$57	144	144	+0	Up	+$8	05-05 22:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	10	$56	73	73	+0	Down	+$16	05-20 19:56
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26?	8	$54	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	06-25 21:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	36	$53	242	209	+33	Down	-$6	05-05 20:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	9	$53	183	183	+0	Down	+$23	05-05 13:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	24	$53	242	85	+157	Down	-$7	05-05 23:24
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25?	5	$50	100	100	+0	No	+$0	06-25 03:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	6	$49	73	73	+0	Up	+$9	05-20 20:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	12	$48	73	73	+0	Up	+$8	05-23 20:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	17	$48	95	94	+0	Down	+$8	05-05 23:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	16	$46	95	94	+0	Down	+$7	05-06 03:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	14	$45	95	83	+12	Down	+$6	05-05 15:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	8	$45	61	61	+0	Up	+$15	05-05 17:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	27	$44	242	64	+178	Down	-$15	05-05 21:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	10	$43	73	73	+0	Down	+$3	05-20 21:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	12	$42	70	73	-3	Up	+$4	05-20 22:45
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 8?	4	$42	76	0	+76	No	-$15	07-07 22:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	23	$41	225	107	+118	Down	-$9	05-05 23:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	9	$40	73	73	+0	Down	+$0	05-20 23:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 02:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$1	0xde19fa…
09-10 13:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xc398a2…
09-10 13:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xc9fcea…
09-10 13:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x7bd06c…
09-10 13:43:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x27b79d…
09-10 13:36:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x96cff7…
09-10 13:31:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xdfdc3e…
09-10 13:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x57d4b0…
09-10 13:21:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x15efc8…
09-10 13:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x17f44b…
09-10 13:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x4c194b…
09-10 12:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x434851…
09-10 12:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x03575a…
09-10 11:08:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xba49b5…
09-10 10:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x942593…
09-10 01:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x180424…
09-10 01:22:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x9075a3…
09-09 20:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x74a3b0…
09-09 19:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x02b825…
09-09 16:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x324d58…
09-09 16:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x2df423…
09-03 22:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x4779b5…
09-03 22:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x86f6a0…
09-03 22:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0xe123d0…
09-03 22:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x551202…
09-03 21:58:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x46e8f8…
09-03 21:49:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x62c8fa…
07-16 21:02:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x27113e…
07-16 20:56:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x46090f…
07-16 20:52:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x6c6c27…
07-16 20:46:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x3d0a3d…
07-16 20:41:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xd9d852…
07-16 20:31:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xed29cd…
07-16 20:27:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x5a16cc…
07-16 20:22:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x103213…
07-16 20:17:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xf08207…
07-16 20:06:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x483701…
07-16 20:00:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xdbcb81…
07-16 19:55:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x836ab7…
07-16 19:50:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x27ba79…
07-16 19:45:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xf29725…
07-16 19:40:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x9d1bef…
07-16 19:35:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x70f66c…
07-16 19:31:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x0250e7…
07-16 19:26:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x5bcf7b…
07-16 19:21:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x4f615d…
07-16 19:17:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xfb752a…
07-16 19:11:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x79f318…
07-16 19:05:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xf797ab…
07-16 19:00:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x290a27…
07-16 18:55:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xfd729c…
07-16 18:51:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x962d5f…
07-15 12:15:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xd26042…
07-15 12:10:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 12:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x31f546…
07-15 12:07:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 12:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x95b09b…
07-15 12:01:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xb5fdb5…
07-15 11:55:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x77d3c9…
07-15 11:50:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xff3863…
07-15 11:45:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x1d54e4…
07-15 11:40:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x16f7cd…
07-15 11:35:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x83afcc…
07-15 11:30:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x6f9f4a…
07-15 11:25:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x743ad9…
07-15 11:20:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x6e2e77…
07-15 11:15:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x814050…
07-15 11:10:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x7b64e1…
07-15 11:05:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xc2d689…
07-15 11:00:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xd46e71…
07-15 10:56:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x47c895…
07-15 10:51:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xfcb3db…
07-15 10:45:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x59d331…
07-15 10:42:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x3c8620…
07-15 10:35:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x2f73d6…
07-15 10:30:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x1184e6…
07-15 10:26:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xcfc1a2…
07-15 10:21:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xc34ab8…
07-15 10:15:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x548ef7…
07-15 10:10:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x0fc26a…
07-15 10:05:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x8a93ef…
07-15 10:00:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xbae15a…
07-15 09:55:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x32f231…
07-15 09:50:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xa8d840…
07-15 09:45:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xaf0640…
07-15 09:40:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xe58115…
07-15 09:36:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x75615c…
07-15 09:30:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x057e92…
07-15 09:26:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:25 UTC	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x255b39…
07-15 09:20:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x690731…
07-15 09:17:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xce1347…
07-15 09:10:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x6187e1…
07-15 09:05:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xbaeb8f…
07-15 09:00:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x2ef49e…
07-15 08:55:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 08:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xfeb36f…
07-15 08:50:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 08:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xf78569…
07-15 08:45:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x5f3c98…
07-15 08:41:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xac5ba9…
07-15 08:35:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 08:35 UTC	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x5819ce…
07-15 08:30:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xbed624…
07-15 08:25:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 08:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xe92267…
07-15 08:21:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 08:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x33bdf0…