Warmhearted-Muskrat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.0%

Resolved

Trades

808

lifetime

Volume

$82.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$102

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 06-09 16:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 92% $-27

Other

35% — —

Politics

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 360 379	5	$1.8K	895	895	+0	open	—	02-13 16:51
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 400 419	5	$1.2K	633	633	+0	open	—	02-13 16:00
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 280 299	4	$1.1K	563	563	+0	open	—	02-17 16:10
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 140 164	6	$1.0K	511	511	+0	open	—	02-09 16:43
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 340 359	5	$999	532	532	+0	open	—	02-03 16:44
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 140 164	2	$848	427	427	+0	open	—	01-31 16:21
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 340 359	4	$831	427	427	+0	open	—	02-20 16:10
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 65 89	4	$826	420	420	+0	open	—	02-07 16:41
elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 190 214	4	$819	420	420	+0	open	—	02-11 20:02
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 400 419	3	$792	409	409	+0	open	—	01-30 17:16
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 340 359	2	$749	376	376	+0	open	—	01-30 08:26
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	6	$726	421	421	+0	open	—	03-27 04:39
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 90 114	2	$706	361	361	+0	open	—	01-28 22:10
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 115 139	2	$682	347	347	+0	open	—	01-28 15:36
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 65 89	3	$658	682	0	+682	open	—	02-16 15:20
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 360 379	4	$626	327	327	+0	open	—	02-10 17:47
googl up or down on february 10 2026	4	$607	307	307	+0	open	—	02-11 00:42
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 400 419	2	$604	305	305	+0	open	—	02-10 16:43
elon musk of tweets february 16 february 18 140 164	3	$604	305	305	+0	open	—	02-18 14:48
dji up or down on february 12 2026	3	$603	303	303	+0	open	—	02-13 00:05
btc updown 4h 1771059600	3	$564	304	304	+0	open	—	02-14 12:48
sol updown 4h 1771059600	3	$560	305	305	+0	open	—	02-14 12:40
btc updown 4h 1770253200	1	$541	543	0	+543	open	—	02-05 04:29
sol updown 4h 1770166800	1	$505	516	0	+516	open	—	02-04 04:23
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 115 139	2	$502	253	253	+0	open	—	02-23 14:32
eth updown 4h 1770195600	2	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-04 12:36
eth updown 4h 1770109200	2	$491	497	0	+497	open	—	02-03 12:09
eth updown 4h 1770094800	1	$486	491	0	+491	open	—	02-03 08:42
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 165 189	2	$482	246	246	+0	open	—	01-24 17:31
btc updown 4h 1771390800	3	$481	493	0	+493	open	—	02-18 08:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 16:02:25	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x6635c8…
06-08 06:46:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x2162ea…
06-08 05:38:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	32	96¢	$30	0xc2da5e…
06-08 05:20:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xa52704…
06-08 04:19:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xdb9c13…
06-08 03:38:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfc5d8e…
06-07 22:41:00	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x179a62…
06-07 10:59:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	41	86¢	$35	0x97ede7…
06-04 11:43:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	No	BUY	38	98¢	$38	0xd80120…
06-04 02:01:04	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xcbb4b7…
06-04 01:51:40	will the philippine senate convict sara duterte	No	SELL	31	66¢	$20	0x1b5fb5…
06-04 01:24:13	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	SELL	33	8¢	$3	0x163835…
06-04 00:54:19	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	33	20¢	$7	0xd2082e…
06-03 11:21:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x867017…
06-01 23:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x505035…
06-01 17:08:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xd711c3…
06-01 16:51:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x51a99c…
06-01 16:31:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	53	47¢	$25	0x20eca0…
06-01 12:48:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x72d5d1…
06-01 12:27:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	23¢	$6	0x2c0318…
06-01 12:23:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	19¢	$5	0x968111…
06-01 03:33:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xcc6a63…
06-01 03:27:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x31458d…
06-01 03:26:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$129	0x5ac54c…
05-31 06:36:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0xd7a011…
05-30 22:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x69ce07…
05-30 10:28:17	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x8fce4e…
05-30 03:02:35	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xb04ffd…
05-28 14:47:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xcf165f…
05-27 06:23:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0xef36b1…
05-27 05:59:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x26d20f…
05-26 23:49:29	XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xfe4512…
05-26 23:43:32	XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x87020f…
05-25 23:31:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x323d73…
05-25 23:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x507817…
05-25 11:16:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0x5562e7…
05-25 11:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x84d4fa…
05-24 18:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	26	94¢	$25	0x309664…
05-15 11:52:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x6d0adb…
05-14 11:38:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x93a7bb…
05-14 11:33:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x21a16c…
05-13 23:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x76a914…
05-13 23:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x17af91…
05-13 23:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xbe5569…
05-13 23:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xd0cbf1…
05-12 23:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x22b93d…
05-12 07:08:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x6e6274…
05-12 07:08:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x1e7ad8…
05-11 23:33:27	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf190c9…
05-11 11:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x1ebe39…
05-11 03:07:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xcbed7d…
05-10 23:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	83	99¢	$83	0xb3511a…
05-10 23:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0xcf17d8…
05-08 11:13:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x709974…
05-08 07:49:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	39	22¢	$9	0xce6d31…
05-08 07:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	56	14¢	$8	0xb333d3…
05-08 07:16:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x61243e…
05-08 07:07:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x3b4a00…
05-08 07:01:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x91d931…
05-08 03:01:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xc7a558…
05-08 03:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x6b55e0…
05-07 15:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	113	98¢	$111	0xe325d1…
05-07 15:06:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0xafaa4b…
05-07 11:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xac0faa…
05-07 11:17:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0xebf658…
05-07 07:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x801d02…
05-07 07:07:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x52a944…
05-06 07:21:34	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x24efb9…
05-06 03:21:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	56	97¢	$54	0x58b6b1…
05-06 03:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0x0f3f2f…
05-05 23:39:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0xa4bd18…
05-05 23:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xbb4c79…
05-05 15:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0x4ea28b…
05-05 11:51:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x9ffb57…
05-05 11:14:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xdbe649…
05-04 11:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	87	100¢	$87	0x714572…
05-04 11:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	87	98¢	$85	0x72f32e…
05-04 07:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x1fbdb8…
05-04 07:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xb64194…
05-03 23:43:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	52	97¢	$51	0x02b483…
05-03 23:39:40	XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x0dc395…
04-30 11:59:56	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xe11921…
04-30 11:57:36	Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x6a658b…
04-29 22:47:02	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	79	97¢	$77	0x9cc921…
04-29 15:07:20	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	108	98¢	$106	0xef9f7d…
04-29 11:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0xc21054…
04-29 11:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	71	98¢	$70	0x48dd68…
04-29 07:47:26	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0xe1645e…
04-29 07:04:50	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	73	96¢	$70	0x99f616…
04-29 03:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	72	98¢	$70	0xc34d95…
04-28 10:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	73	96¢	$70	0xbbe132…
04-28 07:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x2732a4…
04-28 07:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x3ac936…
04-28 07:38:20	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	22	95¢	$21	0x163e1b…
04-28 06:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x137ce0…
04-28 06:40:20	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xb84a80…
04-28 02:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x70deb6…
04-28 02:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0xc2d54f…
04-27 03:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0xd8db28…
04-25 15:31:26	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	SELL	74	99¢	$73	0x26dabb…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	214	$25.7K	6,329	06-06 21:43
Wealthy-Blast 0x5b69…a6af	211	$111.7K	3,342	05-26 23:58
(anonymous) 0x008a…1e2e	195	$131.8K	713	02-20 16:57
(anonymous) 0x686c…1a39	180	$1.38K	2,003	03-03 00:58
(anonymous) 0x69f2…8045	173	$72.1K	416	04-21 13:05
Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82	171	$204.8K	2,765	05-25 23:08
(anonymous) 0x4acf…49ec	158	$653	1,084	04-03 14:13
(anonymous) 0x1979…7c9d	148	$674.9K	20,103	02-25 12:37