Warmhearted-Muskrat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$408

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.4%

Resolved

504

Trades

874

lifetime

Volume

$84.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 06-20 09:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 120 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 87% +$384

Other

36% 76% +$218

Politics

3% 63% -$188

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Tech

0% 0% -$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-20).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 360 379	5	$1.8K	895	895	+0	Yes	+$25	02-13 16:51
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 400 419	5	$1.2K	633	633	+0	No	+$31	02-13 16:00
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 280 299	4	$1.1K	563	563	+0	No	+$12	02-17 16:10
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 140 164	6	$1.0K	511	511	+0	No	+$7	02-09 16:43
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 340 359	5	$999	532	532	+0	Yes	+$5	02-03 16:44
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 140 164	2	$848	427	427	+0	No	+$3	01-31 16:21
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 340 359	4	$831	427	427	+0	No	+$21	02-20 16:10
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 65 89	4	$826	420	420	+0	No	+$12	02-07 16:41
elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 190 214	4	$819	420	420	+0	No	+$19	02-11 20:02
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 400 419	3	$792	409	409	+0	No	+$24	01-30 17:16
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 340 359	2	$749	376	376	+0	No	+$2	01-30 08:26
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	6	$726	421	421	+0	No	-$10	03-27 04:39
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 90 114	2	$706	361	361	+0	No	+$14	01-28 22:10
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 115 139	2	$682	347	347	+0	No	+$10	01-28 15:36
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 65 89	3	$658	682	0	+682	Yes	+$24	02-16 15:20
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 360 379	4	$626	327	327	+0	Yes	+$26	02-10 17:47
googl up or down on february 10 2026	4	$607	307	307	+0	Down	+$7	02-11 00:42
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 400 419	2	$604	305	305	+0	No	+$4	02-10 16:43
elon musk of tweets february 16 february 18 140 164	3	$604	305	305	+0	No	+$4	02-18 14:48
dji up or down on february 12 2026	3	$603	303	303	+0	Down	+$3	02-13 00:05
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-14 09:00 UTC	3	$564	304	304	+0	Down	-$36	02-14 12:48
SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-14 09:00 UTC	3	$560	305	305	+0	Up	-$40	02-14 12:40
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-05 01:00 UTC	1	$541	543	0	+543	Down	+$3	02-05 04:29
SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-04 01:00 UTC	1	$505	516	0	+516	Up	+$10	02-04 04:23
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 115 139	2	$502	253	253	+0	No	+$2	02-23 14:32
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-04 09:00 UTC	2	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	02-04 12:36
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-03 09:00 UTC	2	$491	497	0	+497	Down	+$6	02-03 12:09
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-03 05:00 UTC	1	$486	491	0	+491	Down	+$5	02-03 08:42
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 165 189	2	$482	246	246	+0	No	+$10	01-24 17:31
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-18 05:00 UTC	3	$481	493	0	+493	Up	+$12	02-18 08:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 09:14:01	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0x11a79d…
06-20 09:13:58	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x0e3e15…
06-20 09:13:55	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0xa8b705…
06-20 09:13:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	32	9¢	$3	0x8e243c…
06-20 04:42:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	5¢	$2	0xbdb378…
06-20 04:41:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	31	8¢	$2	0x475a9d…
06-19 06:57:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0x65752c…
06-19 02:39:40	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xa2843f…
06-19 02:36:13	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	8¢	$5	0x2bc6e5…
06-19 02:29:11	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0x70edbc…
06-19 00:00:55	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x505dc2…
06-18 16:23:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0xc53baa…
06-18 12:46:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	19	85¢	$16	0x69809e…
06-18 05:07:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0xab4e07…
06-18 01:46:10	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xe91cb2…
06-16 02:31:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x6e22c5…
06-15 08:01:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	331	13¢	$44	0x74781e…
06-15 00:13:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0xe61cf5…
06-14 22:13:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x9315c4…
06-14 22:01:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	47	1¢	$0	0xf69002…
06-12 09:47:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0x979f0f…
06-12 09:47:10	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0x66cf58…
06-11 16:38:55	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	12	82¢	$9	0xb5f33d…
06-11 16:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1a456b…
06-10 14:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x4fccb3…
06-10 06:41:22	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0x135ed6…
06-10 00:06:45	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xfdddbe…
06-09 16:02:25	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x6635c8…
06-08 06:46:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x2162ea…
06-08 05:38:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	32	96¢	$30	0xc2da5e…
06-08 05:20:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xa52704…
06-08 04:19:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xdb9c13…
06-08 03:38:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfc5d8e…
06-07 22:41:00	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x179a62…
06-07 10:59:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	41	86¢	$35	0x97ede7…
06-07 01:21:15	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	45	67¢	$30	0x3af810…
06-06 11:45:57	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	45	62¢	$28	0x980da9…
06-04 11:43:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	No	BUY	38	98¢	$38	0xd80120…
06-04 02:01:04	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xcbb4b7…
06-04 01:51:40	will the philippine senate convict sara duterte	No	SELL	31	66¢	$20	0x1b5fb5…
06-04 01:24:13	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	SELL	33	8¢	$3	0x163835…
06-04 00:54:19	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	33	20¢	$7	0xd2082e…
06-03 11:21:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x867017…
06-03 05:49:43	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xcd6de1…
06-03 03:28:44	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xbce6d7…
06-02 15:42:01	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0x0cbaf6…
06-02 14:28:02	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0x0eb234…
06-02 14:06:55	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xf39527…
06-01 23:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x505035…
06-01 17:08:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xd711c3…
06-01 16:51:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x51a99c…
06-01 16:31:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	53	47¢	$25	0x20eca0…
06-01 12:48:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x72d5d1…
06-01 12:27:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	23¢	$6	0x2c0318…
06-01 12:23:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	19¢	$5	0x968111…
06-01 03:33:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xcc6a63…
06-01 03:27:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x31458d…
06-01 03:26:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$129	0x5ac54c…
05-31 06:36:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0xd7a011…
05-30 22:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x69ce07…
05-30 10:28:17	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x8fce4e…
05-30 03:02:35	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xb04ffd…
05-28 14:47:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xcf165f…
05-27 15:29:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0xb059db…
05-27 06:23:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0xef36b1…
05-27 05:59:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x26d20f…
05-27 02:40:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	68	95¢	$65	0x198bee…
05-27 00:51:07	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xc1b4f5…
05-26 23:49:29	XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xfe4512…
05-26 23:43:32	XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x87020f…
05-26 11:37:58	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	86	98¢	$85	0x6ef002…
05-25 23:31:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x323d73…
05-25 23:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x507817…
05-25 11:16:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0x5562e7…
05-25 11:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x84d4fa…
05-25 10:44:26	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x30a9a5…
05-25 07:17:12	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xac890b…
05-24 18:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	26	94¢	$25	0x309664…
05-15 11:52:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x6d0adb…
05-15 06:01:02	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0x59056d…
05-14 11:38:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x93a7bb…
05-14 11:34:20	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0xd26b7a…
05-14 11:33:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x21a16c…
05-14 06:02:13	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	107	94¢	$100	0x776893…
05-14 06:01:22	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xedf4b8…
05-13 23:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x76a914…
05-13 23:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x17af91…
05-13 23:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xbe5569…
05-13 23:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xd0cbf1…
05-13 14:31:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xb32678…
05-13 06:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xe1afd7…
05-13 01:18:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x1dc62e…
05-12 23:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x22b93d…
05-12 11:01:54	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$101	0x7db683…
05-12 10:37:38	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x785a9f…
05-12 10:37:34	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x527a4b…
05-12 10:37:29	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0x19b77a…
05-12 10:37:13	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xeb78ce…
05-12 10:37:10	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0286bb…
05-12 07:08:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x6e6274…