Waterlogged-Gander — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$591

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 05-30 17:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 100% +$0

Other

40% 100% +$0

Politics

11% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$102	102	+102	Yes	+$0	05-04 19:29
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	1	$91	92	+92	open	—	04-30 21:50
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$67	67	+67	open	—	05-14 18:40
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$66	67	+67	Yes	+$0	05-11 10:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	1	$66	68	+68	open	—	05-20 10:54
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	1	$22	26	+26	open	—	05-03 14:31
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	1	$22	22	+22	open	—	05-30 17:37
will bitcoin dip to 65k in january 2026	2	$8	8	+8	open	—	01-24 11:50
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?	2	$8	8	+8	open	—	05-08 02:22
will microsoft be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1	$6	6	+6	open	—	02-24 17:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-06 13:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	3	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-04 01:04
Will Solana reach $130 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-03 20:07
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	05-09 15:05
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	1	$4	5	+5	open	—	04-25 23:12
will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	04-12 22:10
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?	1	$4	4	+4	No	+$0	05-05 16:03
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	04-06 23:51
nvda above 250 on january 30 2026	1	$3	4	+4	open	—	01-08 13:56
will moonshot have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	01-06 20:23
nvda above 130 on january 30 2026	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	01-10 10:25
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	04-06 12:19
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	04-06 02:44
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	05-09 04:08
Will BNB dip to $200 in April?	2	$3	3	+3	open	—	04-12 03:31
will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	2	$2	3	+3	open	—	03-12 01:19
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$0	04-14 02:02
will hyperliquid hit 34 in january	1	$2	2	+2	open	—	01-20 12:45
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?	1	$2	2	+2	open	—	04-10 11:06
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$2	2	+2	open	—	04-15 16:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-30 17:37:44	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xf551c7…
05-20 10:54:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	68	97¢	$66	0x166079…
05-19 17:57:26	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2da33f…
05-14 18:40:10	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0x0e2fec…
05-11 10:19:19	Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	67	100¢	$66	0x35adb1…
05-11 09:43:11	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdb8846…
05-11 09:37:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc4f211…
05-11 06:24:06	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xeb3cf3…
05-09 15:05:04	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4b6f95…
05-09 04:08:05	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x0e9984…
05-08 02:22:14	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x12a2ac…
05-06 13:47:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc00cab…
05-05 16:03:20	Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x590eff…
05-04 19:35:32	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x8da68c…
05-04 19:29:10	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xb2da22…
05-04 01:04:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcc25fc…
05-03 20:07:48	Will Solana reach $130 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x78f31d…
05-03 14:31:54	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	26	86¢	$22	0x025522…
05-03 10:44:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd109e9…
05-03 05:48:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4d8ea8…
04-30 21:50:02	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x352ba3…
04-25 23:12:14	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x6e153b…
04-15 16:25:38	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xaf3f92…
04-14 02:02:51	Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$2	0x11cdf7…
04-13 15:03:41	Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x572b90…
04-12 22:10:51	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x80f3af…
04-12 07:42:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x852281…
04-12 03:31:35	Will BNB dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd73090…
04-11 11:39:11	Will BNB dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x308feb…
04-10 12:56:55	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc401bc…
04-10 11:06:35	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xedd3eb…
04-10 06:33:51	Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcca730…
04-06 23:51:17	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x67aeae…
04-06 12:19:27	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x9977dc…
04-06 10:16:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x95b3ca…
04-06 02:44:33	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x38c13b…
04-05 13:43:03	Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb91078…
03-30 12:15:08	msft above 480 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x57a282…
03-30 04:32:20	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x42906f…
03-29 16:57:20	aapl above 210 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x257b52…
03-29 07:27:40	will google have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2a91ab…
03-27 07:41:23	will ethena reach 0pt24 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x96ef03…
03-25 21:22:55	googl above 260 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x41c2b0…
03-24 20:33:23	will tesla be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x284b01…
03-24 18:19:15	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf7244c…
03-23 02:47:23	will zai have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4d276e…
03-22 00:05:55	will bnb dip to 400 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd34222…
03-21 03:09:23	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8ccb94…
03-12 04:56:35	will the ecb announce no change at the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2bd375…
03-12 02:16:17	will the ecb announce a 25 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x400aed…
03-12 01:19:11	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x37005b…
03-11 23:33:57	will hyperliquid dip to 16 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0a3cbf…
03-10 21:38:23	bank of england increases interest rates after march 2026 meeting 393	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x97a924…
03-10 07:36:55	will saudi aramco be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xebca0e…
03-10 01:47:09	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3f3342…
03-09 21:39:15	will bnb reach 1100 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xacc649…
03-09 11:23:31	will mistral have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 494	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x74d018…
03-09 06:45:55	will ethena dip to 0 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa070d3…
03-08 17:25:45	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2521db…
03-08 14:05:41	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x059ec6…
03-08 10:05:13	will zai have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd0419e…
03-08 01:55:05	bank of japan decreases interest rates after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe23eee…
03-08 00:25:49	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x71f540…
03-07 13:30:27	will xrp reach 2pt4 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x712aaf…
03-07 09:38:03	will baidu have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xda1615…
03-07 00:31:05	bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xad3751…
03-05 12:04:49	bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4ab053…
03-05 06:46:13	will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x42157b…
03-04 07:51:23	nflx above 0 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2b290e…
02-25 12:40:06	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x400f17…
02-24 17:13:30	will microsoft be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfd00fd…
02-03 01:03:40	meta above 840 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc6e282…
02-01 17:12:18	will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6840d8…
01-24 11:50:30	will bitcoin dip to 65k in january 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x843b23…
01-23 06:58:34	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcb7b4c…
01-21 15:24:14	aapl above 210 on january 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3b0b47…
01-20 12:45:26	will hyperliquid hit 34 in january	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdeed21…
01-16 13:34:02	meta above 560 on january 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x36b5d0…
01-15 20:39:12	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf939af…
01-14 04:43:42	will ethereum dip to 1400 in january 2026 585	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf9ed86…
01-11 10:42:06	meta above 540 on january 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4f22af…
01-10 10:25:38	nvda above 130 on january 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x50bbdc…
01-08 13:56:02	nvda above 250 on january 30 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x60f5fe…
01-07 06:10:47	will bitcoin dip to 65k in january 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x62780e…
01-06 20:23:21	will moonshot have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa89a79…