Waterlogged-Gander — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

98.6%

Resolved

144

Trades

193

lifetime

Volume

$3.94K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$121

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-30 06:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

37% 99% +$9

Politics

34% 100% +$15

Crypto

24% 97% -$14

Tech

6% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+132	$92	57¢	$76	-$16	10-20 10:37
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+46	$44	99¢	$45	+$2	10-29 17:44
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+2	$2	1¢	$0	-$2	10-27 18:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$263	133	133	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 21:58
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	4	$205	103	103	+0	No	+$0	09-29 18:00
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$188	96	96	+0	No	+$4	09-01 06:58
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$132	91	45	+46	open	—	10-29 17:44
gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	2	$127	127	0	+127	No	+$0	06-26 08:44
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$123	124	0	+124	No	+$1	09-05 21:42
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	10	$120	121	0	+121	No	+$1	09-15 13:27
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$119	124	0	+124	No	+$5	09-30 05:01
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$117	119	0	+119	Yes	+$2	09-10 14:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$106	107	0	+107	No	+$1	08-15 18:29
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	08-07 16:11
Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?	1	$105	105	0	+105	Yes	+$0	08-07 00:40
squid fdv above 100m one day after launch 392	1	$105	105	0	+105	Yes	+$0	08-05 19:50
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$105	105	0	+105	Yes	+$0	08-20 20:39
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$104	105	0	+105	No	+$1	08-05 01:38
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$104	105	0	+105	No	+$1	08-17 09:07
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$102	102	0	+102	Yes	+$0	05-04 19:29
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$101	102	0	+102	No	+$0	06-27 06:32
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$101	106	0	+106	No	+$5	08-12 17:25
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	08-10 15:17
grvt fdv above 150m one day after launch	2	$99	52	52	+0	Yes	+$3	07-31 03:29
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$92	132	0	+132	open	—	10-20 10:37
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	1	$91	92	0	+92	Yes	+$1	04-30 21:50
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$68	68	0	+68	No	+$1	05-29 01:10
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	1	$67	67	0	+67	No	+$0	05-15 20:58
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$67	67	0	+67	Yes	+$0	05-14 18:40
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$66	67	0	+67	Yes	+$0	05-11 10:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	1	$66	68	0	+68	Yes	+$2	05-20 10:54
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$62	62	0	+62	No	+$0	07-31 12:19
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	4	$61	31	31	+0	Yes	+$0	10-12 20:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 06:04:43	Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xfdfdb6…
10-29 17:44:49	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0x746a10…
10-28 11:44:01	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x29f48b…
10-28 09:08:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0xbe6adb…
10-28 04:10:23	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x938d71…
10-27 18:09:24	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x73f825…
10-26 00:15:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x0cb4f3…
10-20 10:37:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	132	70¢	$92	0xe108f4…
10-17 15:58:38	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xf360fd…
10-14 22:49:49	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0xcc9822…
10-12 20:34:36	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x5abbda…
10-12 20:15:21	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0xbc3a1b…
10-12 04:55:24	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	97¢	$28	0x846c29…
10-12 01:49:21	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x60c85b…
10-11 05:05:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xc95269…
10-08 17:17:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x98a637…
10-06 22:48:45	Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x40fdc5…
10-05 18:54:49	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x4b6fd3…
10-04 21:58:10	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	133	99¢	$131	0x32dfa5…
10-03 19:29:33	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	133	98¢	$131	0x130d24…
09-30 18:56:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xe067b3…
09-30 05:01:41	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	124	96¢	$119	0x62a44a…
09-29 18:00:03	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0xecce62…
09-29 17:28:17	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x123d49…
09-29 15:37:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x75fb1f…
09-29 07:03:06	will wti reach 150 in september 2026	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xc1dcb7…
09-29 07:02:00	Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xf23830…
09-28 19:22:14	Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x285881…
09-28 00:08:53	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$102	0xd01b24…
09-26 02:02:05	Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x825fe5…
09-23 15:18:55	will wti reach 150 in september 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7c6a78…
09-22 13:16:46	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xc134c0…
09-15 13:27:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	76	99¢	$75	0x16ab61…
09-15 06:31:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd9cb1e…
09-15 06:31:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc27ed5…
09-15 06:31:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xb66e6e…
09-15 06:31:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7b4a22…
09-15 06:31:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x6be579…
09-15 06:31:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3fdd38…
09-15 06:31:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x914eba…
09-15 06:31:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x88ffae…
09-15 06:31:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x34aac6…
09-10 14:08:57	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	119	99¢	$117	0xe9140b…
09-10 09:08:09	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x23878e…
09-05 21:42:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0x212eec…
09-01 06:58:58	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0x581de5…
09-01 01:28:42	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$23	0xa7c218…
08-26 17:13:19	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	96	96¢	$92	0xdd0d5a…
08-25 10:19:46	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfac64d…
08-24 04:16:43	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in August?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x283b97…
08-23 00:04:18	Will Thinky be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1017e3…
08-20 20:39:43	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xfd3f02…
08-17 09:07:39	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0xd4a19c…
08-16 18:44:03	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x76d650…
08-15 18:29:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	107	100¢	$106	0x9ed91c…
08-12 17:25:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	106	95¢	$101	0x4a680f…
08-10 15:17:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xcf5af3…
08-09 19:47:31	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb37d40…
08-07 16:11:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x956f10…
08-07 00:40:51	Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x0656ab…
08-05 19:50:15	squid fdv above 100m one day after launch 392	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x37d2a6…
08-05 01:38:32	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x2ba750…
08-04 16:33:56	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xdf18db…
08-04 07:10:33	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x7c5966…
07-31 18:08:45	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0xe70a75…
07-31 14:43:11	will xagusd dip to 52 in july 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$12	0x382c15…
07-31 12:41:02	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	52	23¢	$12	0x3b72fa…
07-31 12:19:06	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0xc5b354…
07-31 03:29:36	grvt fdv above 150m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	52	99¢	$51	0xee3251…
07-30 03:52:29	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4f24e0…
07-27 11:28:48	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	220	1¢	$2	0xf2740c…
07-27 10:03:25	grvt fdv above 150m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	52	94¢	$48	0xeb20a1…
07-26 20:03:15	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6c2295…
07-25 15:38:27	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfcdb79…
07-24 18:21:19	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x449a38…
07-23 13:54:36	will xauusd dip to 3500 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8a0279…
07-23 11:50:39	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x8b8439…
07-23 08:25:01	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x444494…
07-21 09:56:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xdd5c7b…
07-17 17:34:43	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in july 2026 918	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3f2a2f…
07-16 23:43:49	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$3	0x359d45…
07-16 15:25:23	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3ee03d…
07-16 14:30:37	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x709eac…
07-13 21:52:01	will bitcoin dip to 40k in july 2026 457	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0b56e7…
07-06 09:59:10	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x39919e…
07-05 05:16:01	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x057f2a…
06-29 16:50:10	will spy dip to 700 in june 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x46ce3f…
06-29 13:29:05	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x89b557…
06-29 13:10:34	Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8bb488…
06-29 11:20:29	will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x35edad…
06-29 00:25:25	Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x6a113a…
06-28 16:34:32	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x57356a…
06-28 12:59:20	will coin reach 195 in june 2026	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x9742a3…
06-28 12:17:26	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xf21271…
06-28 12:09:52	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x672b78…
06-27 06:32:07	Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$101	0xf14a94…
06-26 08:44:19	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xe0b715…
06-26 04:20:50	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	106	100¢	$105	0x063122…
05-30 17:37:44	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xf551c7…
05-29 01:10:48	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	68	99¢	$68	0x86c98b…