Physical-Beggar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$834

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

58.8%

Resolved

108

Trades

19,660

lifetime

Volume

$800.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$161

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 07-21 17:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

66% 54% $-842

Politics

19% — —

Crypto

11% — —

Sports

4% 42% +$8

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 601 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+200	$96	46¢	$91	$-5	07-21 21:57
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	No	-239	$-70	30¢	$-70	$-1	06-14 22:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	+$0	06-22 13:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	162	$23.6K	22,060	22,060	+0	open	—	05-30 04:48
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	46	$15.8K	9,000	8,979	+21	open	—	06-12 18:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	197	$15.1K	13,580	13,413	+167	open	—	06-15 19:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	146	$8.9K	11,499	11,499	+0	open	—	04-18 13:49
lol we blg 2026 06 13 game2	85	$8.6K	7,184	5,528	+1,657	open	—	06-13 09:41
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	96	$7.9K	8,088	6,293	+1,794	open	—	07-13 14:16
cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 06 12	123	$7.3K	7,482	8,048	-566	open	—	06-12 20:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	85	$7.2K	8,362	8,564	-202	open	—	06-15 12:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	74	$7.1K	6,794	6,988	-193	open	—	06-14 22:31
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	57	$6.0K	5,691	3,995	+1,696	open	—	05-30 12:31
cs2 eye faze 2026 07 05	129	$5.7K	5,533	5,479	+53	open	—	07-05 17:37
cs2 fal2 ts7 2026 04 18	91	$5.7K	4,060	3,900	+160	open	—	04-18 16:40
spx up or down on july 8 2026	106	$5.5K	5,036	4,605	+431	open	—	07-08 19:45
spy up or down on july 8 2026	80	$5.5K	3,639	3,436	+202	open	—	07-08 19:25
cs2 bb3 fut 2026 06 15	127	$5.4K	4,133	4,336	-203	open	—	06-15 16:09
lol g2 kc 2026 06 07	75	$5.4K	5,635	5,335	+300	open	—	06-07 19:16
cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21	81	$5.2K	5,187	4,936	+250	open	—	06-21 18:04
lol hrts es1 2026 06 13	120	$4.9K	4,926	4,814	+112	open	—	06-13 19:05
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	64	$4.9K	4,821	4,821	+0	open	—	06-12 13:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	42	$4.8K	4,300	4,218	+82	open	—	06-06 11:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	26	$4.8K	3,900	3,900	+0	open	—	05-26 02:36
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27?	85	$4.7K	4,693	4,728	-35	open	—	05-27 19:46
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner	47	$4.7K	3,321	2,813	+508	open	—	05-31 18:10
wti up or down on july 10 2026	52	$4.4K	4,160	4,156	+4	open	—	07-10 20:58
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	69	$4.4K	4,480	4,150	+330	Karmine Corp	+$70	05-09 19:00
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	39	$4.4K	4,500	4,499	+1	open	—	06-11 19:34
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	62	$4.3K	3,728	3,728	+0	open	—	06-28 18:38
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	36	$4.2K	4,241	4,230	+10	open	—	05-15 14:51
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	178	$4.0K	3,875	3,633	+242	open	—	06-14 20:58
lol wb jdg 2026 04 18	57	$4.0K	2,421	2,387	+34	open	—	04-18 15:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 22:46:42	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	SELL	72	91¢	$65	0x586c45…
07-21 22:41:48	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	SELL	128	91¢	$117	0x9bf84c…
07-21 22:38:54	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x8e7242…
07-21 21:57:42	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0xd25233…
07-21 20:14:58	lol itz reda 2026 07 21	INTZ e-Sports	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd1cd1b…
07-21 20:14:16	lol itz reda 2026 07 21	INTZ e-Sports	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x4e0c51…
07-21 20:14:03	lol itz reda 2026 07 21	INTZ e-Sports	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0x3718bd…
07-21 20:14:01	lol itz reda 2026 07 21	INTZ e-Sports	SELL	81	96¢	$78	0xca607c…
07-21 20:12:54	lol itz reda 2026 07 21	INTZ e-Sports	BUY	250	93¢	$232	0x8cabb7…
07-21 19:40:06	spy closes above 735 on july 21 2026	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xcbcd56…
07-21 17:11:00	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	Yes	SELL	397	2¢	$6	0x8e994a…
07-21 17:00:25	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x6e2bf7…
07-21 16:59:06	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	Yes	BUY	399	2¢	$9	0x5bd236…
07-21 16:36:54	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0x50a211…
07-21 16:36:51	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x2117c0…
07-21 15:49:58	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	SELL	150	3¢	$4	0x998524…
07-21 15:37:33	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0xc9ccde…
07-21 15:28:22	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xffe4e7…
07-21 14:21:40	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0xa1bdda…
07-21 14:20:06	cs2 hotu hero 2026 07 21	HOTU	SELL	40	22¢	$9	0x0a372d…
07-21 14:20:04	cs2 hotu hero 2026 07 21	HOTU	SELL	25	22¢	$6	0x74691c…
07-21 14:20:04	cs2 hotu hero 2026 07 21	HOTU	SELL	25	22¢	$6	0x455b71…
07-21 14:15:28	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	SELL	164	5¢	$8	0x2425ae…
07-21 13:36:19	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x67c3ea…
07-21 11:30:12	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	337	1¢	$4	0xb28efd…
07-21 11:00:07	spx opens up or down on july 21 2026	Down	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x2094c4…
07-21 10:58:58	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	128	1¢	$2	0x1c1e8f…
07-21 10:42:07	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	163	2¢	$3	0x665ef8…
07-21 10:40:25	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0x811f29…
07-21 09:34:13	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0xf873de…
07-21 08:51:13	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0xa6b29f…
07-21 08:48:33	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	76	98¢	$74	0x653a0a…
07-21 08:46:15	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xe4dfe6…
07-21 08:45:33	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x0c1258…
07-21 08:43:52	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x917f4b…
07-21 08:42:51	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xfa2afc…
07-21 08:40:18	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x8a3c51…
07-21 08:39:16	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x942412…
07-21 08:34:13	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xc606ed…
07-21 08:31:52	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0xdecea4…
07-21 08:28:06	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xac4d8c…
07-21 08:27:45	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x295376…
07-21 07:14:03	wti up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	500	45¢	$225	0xeaadeb…
07-21 06:16:19	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x92a979…
07-21 06:16:18	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x1f7a0c…
07-21 06:16:15	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xaad4bf…
07-21 06:16:12	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x49b98a…
07-21 06:16:10	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x1bc822…
07-21 06:16:07	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x24c636…
07-21 06:16:03	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x57013f…
07-21 06:16:01	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x159ffa…
07-21 06:15:57	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x6aa3fe…
07-21 05:35:54	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$6	0xdbd4c1…
07-21 05:28:04	wti up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	500	44¢	$220	0x8889d3…
07-21 03:36:13	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	12	72¢	$9	0x0d3041…
07-21 03:22:30	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	12	71¢	$8	0x7eac85…
07-21 03:02:09	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	8	69¢	$5	0x6a94f7…
07-21 03:02:09	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	8	69¢	$5	0x261c4c…
07-21 03:02:07	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0xe6ad7e…
07-21 03:02:07	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0xc0f773…
07-21 03:02:07	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	8	69¢	$5	0x0ac0c3…
07-21 03:01:58	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	164	69¢	$113	0x3225f4…
07-21 02:49:28	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0xfc8209…
07-21 02:06:39	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0x723a22…
07-21 01:40:15	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0xdc0079…
07-21 00:07:49	spx opens up or down on july 21 2026	Down	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xa2a47c…
07-20 23:56:42	spx opens up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x804ed1…
07-20 23:49:58	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	SELL	200	46¢	$92	0x78f14b…
07-20 23:36:12	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0xededef…
07-20 22:59:21	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	SELL	200	40¢	$79	0xe7154e…
07-20 22:06:06	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	SELL	64	52¢	$33	0x116107…
07-20 20:58:46	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	64	51¢	$33	0x82072c…
07-20 19:34:39	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$79	0x795b95…
07-20 18:03:00	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	87	84¢	$73	0x0ead7a…
07-20 18:02:57	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0x4788b7…
07-20 18:01:16	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	45	83¢	$37	0x0d6091…
07-20 18:01:13	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	55	83¢	$46	0x6b8957…
07-20 18:01:12	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xe4b756…
07-20 18:01:03	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0xcc9ea9…
07-20 18:00:31	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	94	80¢	$75	0x9445e8…
07-20 17:52:57	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xad6739…
07-20 17:32:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x653c0d…
07-20 17:19:36	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	439	95¢	$419	0xcb6113…
07-20 17:05:55	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xee32f6…
07-20 17:02:13	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xa4bc95…
07-20 16:47:37	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	477	87¢	$415	0xd4e57a…
07-20 16:47:33	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	23	87¢	$20	0x1f45d1…
07-20 16:44:07	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	164	4¢	$7	0x1921c2…
07-20 16:42:24	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	3	98¢	$2	0x9c5975…
07-20 16:42:21	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb52c7f…
07-20 16:41:30	spy up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x508248…
07-20 16:41:16	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0xd3990b…
07-20 16:22:22	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0x9703bb…
07-20 16:21:30	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xac4f26…
07-20 16:13:34	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	115	95¢	$109	0x8d801a…
07-20 16:08:00	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0xa033d3…
07-20 15:48:39	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xfcd790…
07-20 15:38:19	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	175	4¢	$7	0xc9f5ee…
07-20 15:05:46	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	86	4¢	$3	0x316695…
07-20 15:05:07	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	425	4¢	$17	0x31248a…