Physical-Beggar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23.1K

Unrealized P&L

-$186

Hit rate

57.1%

Resolved

4,655

Trades

30,285

lifetime

Volume

$1.21M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$84

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-06 17:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 217 days

Categories

Other

61% 60% -$14,838

Politics

20% 37% -$2,242

Crypto

15% 77% -$5,915

Sports

3% 57% -$103

Tech

0% 50% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 806 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	No	-100	-$36	68¢	$-68	-$32	06-04 06:31
will cxmt be removed from chinese military companies list by june 30 2027 20260706223230554	No	+20	$17	80¢	$16	-$1	08-17 19:18
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+0	$97	66¢	$0	-$97	09-08 17:39
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	+0	-$3	98¢	$0	+$4	11-05 03:55
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+0	$51	2¢	$0	-$51	08-26 18:57
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	Yes	+0	$8	3¢	$0	-$8	11-03 18:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	162	$23.6K	22,060	22,060	+0	No	-$4	05-30 04:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	253	$18.0K	16,970	16,570	+400	Yes	-$136	06-15 19:40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	48	$15.9K	9,000	9,000	+0	No	+$1	06-12 18:54
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	282	$15.0K	7,822	7,822	+0	Yes	+$10	06-14 18:22
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	170	$12.7K	38,422	34,122	+4,300	No	-$1,087	07-14 20:24
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?	61	$12.4K	6,830	6,826	+4	No	+$42	06-30 18:51
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	369	$11.2K	11,715	11,714	+0	No	-$167	07-13 16:47
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	185	$11.1K	11,776	11,776	+0	Spirit	-$92	06-12 20:12
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	92	$9.4K	8,348	8,348	+0	Yes	+$9	08-12 06:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	146	$8.9K	11,499	11,499	+0	No	-$82	04-18 13:49
lol we blg 2026 06 13 game2	86	$8.8K	7,184	5,839	+1,346	Team WE	-$1,063	06-13 09:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	131	$8.8K	10,379	10,179	+200	Yes	-$122	06-15 13:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	89	$8.0K	7,694	7,694	+0	No	+$11	06-14 22:31
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	96	$7.9K	8,088	6,293	+1,794	Yes	-$1,260	07-13 14:16
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	30	$7.8K	5,337	5,337	+0	No	+$33	06-10 18:31
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	101	$7.4K	4,548	4,548	+0	Yes	+$10	07-10 20:59
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	138	$7.4K	7,645	7,645	+0	No	+$9	07-05 17:38
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	142	$6.7K	5,362	5,362	+0	BetBoom Team	-$7	06-15 16:09
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	34	$6.5K	3,788	3,626	+162	No	+$73	06-12 20:57
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	19	$6.4K	4,173	4,173	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$128	10-23 18:46
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	92	$6.2K	5,800	5,800	+0	No	-$17	08-28 08:16
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	79	$6.2K	3,389	3,382	+7	Yes	-$20	06-26 20:15
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	57	$6.0K	5,691	3,995	+1,696	Team WE	-$1,481	05-30 12:31
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC	170	$5.8K	6,022	5,712	+309	Down	+$23	08-21 19:56
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	147	$5.8K	5,916	5,643	+273	Eintracht Spandau	+$131	06-13 19:05
cs2 eye faze 2026 07 05	129	$5.7K	5,533	5,479	+53	FaZe	+$117	07-05 17:37
cs2 fal2 ts7 2026 04 18	91	$5.7K	4,060	3,900	+160	Spirit	+$152	04-18 16:40
spx up or down on july 8 2026	106	$5.5K	5,036	4,605	+431	Down	-$201	07-08 19:45
spy up or down on july 8 2026	80	$5.5K	3,639	3,436	+202	Down	+$81	07-08 19:25
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	18	$5.5K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	$0	08-25 18:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 17:56:01	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x35ea39…
11-06 11:03:31	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x66f42a…
11-06 11:03:25	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x0c4af7…
11-06 07:02:48	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x5d8a63…
11-06 01:32:10	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0x74b540…
11-06 00:55:54	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0x3175f5…
11-05 23:18:37	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xedb7f9…
11-05 23:18:33	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x804ad5…
11-05 23:17:24	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x09c9db…
11-05 20:01:03	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x8fe408…
11-05 16:59:51	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	200	2¢	$3	0xf420b0…
11-05 16:37:46	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	97¢	$195	0xccf08c…
11-05 16:37:33	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$195	0x12ea3d…
11-05 16:34:10	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x2acb86…
11-05 16:29:07	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x632d6a…
11-05 16:28:27	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	SELL	500	3¢	$16	0xdfafd2…
11-05 16:24:09	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	500	5¢	$24	0x82859e…
11-05 16:20:06	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x7a7a55…
11-05 16:20:00	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	108	4¢	$5	0x7aca5e…
11-05 16:20:00	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	91	4¢	$4	0x1ec80c…
11-05 16:19:55	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	4¢	$9	0x9d4951…
11-05 16:01:24	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xd678bf…
11-05 15:48:31	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	120	4¢	$5	0xe0d75e…
11-05 15:12:33	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	120	5¢	$5	0xf9939f…
11-05 14:39:13	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$12	0x85db55…
11-05 14:39:10	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xae36c0…
11-05 12:56:51	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	238	3¢	$6	0x83b837…
11-05 12:56:51	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	262	3¢	$7	0x299e93…
11-05 12:56:48	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	2¢	$9	0xe37780…
11-05 12:36:57	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	3¢	$14	0xaf6acd…
11-05 12:36:54	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$12	0x785b9f…
11-05 12:15:10	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	120	97¢	$116	0xf275fa…
11-05 12:15:10	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	380	97¢	$367	0x018f66…
11-05 12:08:48	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	178	96¢	$171	0xfb0c2d…
11-05 12:08:43	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	178	96¢	$171	0xff5323…
11-05 12:08:43	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	97¢	$484	0xb2e525…
11-05 03:58:37	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	96¢	$478	0x333083…
11-05 03:58:33	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	96¢	$478	0xa85d1a…
11-05 03:55:01	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	469	94¢	$441	0x34ff2f…
11-05 03:55:00	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	31	94¢	$29	0x4f0bc7…
11-05 03:54:39	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0xe2cc5b…
11-05 03:33:18	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	500	3¢	$14	0xfa7d9a…
11-05 03:33:13	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	2¢	$11	0x69243a…
11-05 02:02:28	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	500	2¢	$8	0x269a97…
11-05 02:02:24	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	1¢	$7	0xb7396c…
11-05 01:21:09	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	500	93¢	$466	0x015f1b…
11-05 01:20:54	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	500	93¢	$464	0x73a73b…
11-05 01:11:55	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	218	93¢	$203	0xa31a1b…
11-05 00:58:40	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xdcc2ea…
11-05 00:50:27	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	70	93¢	$65	0x442642…
11-05 00:46:54	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	121	93¢	$113	0x11ac2b…
11-05 00:46:13	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	39	93¢	$36	0x704a35…
11-05 00:46:13	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	3	93¢	$2	0x62c2d0…
11-05 00:46:13	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	40	93¢	$38	0x45deb9…
11-05 00:41:45	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	244	2¢	$5	0x903192…
11-05 00:41:45	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	148	2¢	$3	0x5d319d…
11-05 00:41:40	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	392	2¢	$6	0xef9e71…
11-05 00:40:00	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	191	2¢	$4	0xe9a22a…
11-05 00:37:19	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	500	97¢	$486	0x77055e…
11-05 00:36:51	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x45237e…
11-05 00:35:09	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	97¢	$485	0x6aa284…
11-05 00:30:25	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	3	93¢	$2	0xa827a6…
11-05 00:30:21	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	500	93¢	$466	0x212ef2…
11-05 00:04:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0xdd37d8…
11-05 00:04:01	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xef6e06…
11-05 00:00:37	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	SELL	27	6¢	$2	0xba6e0d…
11-05 00:00:34	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0x71ec1b…
11-04 23:57:16	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	278	8¢	$22	0x0eefb4…
11-04 23:56:01	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	269	1¢	$4	0x985a5b…
11-04 23:56:01	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x778c4a…
11-04 23:56:01	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x483445…
11-04 23:55:58	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	220	1¢	$3	0xf17d8c…
11-04 23:55:54	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$7	0x3485f1…
11-04 23:49:10	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	222	8¢	$18	0x65ebf7…
11-04 23:45:37	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	SELL	500	7¢	$34	0xd1d408…
11-04 23:42:15	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	500	11¢	$53	0xcd3c20…
11-04 23:27:16	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	500	89¢	$445	0x2451d4…
11-04 23:26:55	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0x3438ba…
11-04 21:21:03	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	500	8¢	$42	0x0bbf9b…
11-04 20:45:19	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	39	3¢	$1	0x25ae7d…
11-04 20:41:24	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	75	2¢	$1	0xa2f1b8…
11-04 20:41:24	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	125	2¢	$2	0x525ec8…
11-04 20:31:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x2545a7…
11-04 18:33:27	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	64	10¢	$6	0x5d6b67…
11-04 18:32:48	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xfa920d…
11-04 18:32:43	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	SELL	200	6¢	$11	0x5bddbb…
11-04 18:32:43	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	SELL	200	6¢	$11	0x178ba3…
11-04 18:32:36	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	500	6¢	$28	0x697daa…
11-04 18:31:48	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0x79662e…
11-04 18:31:45	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x93a147…
11-04 18:31:42	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x1688e5…
11-04 18:31:10	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xab5229…
11-04 18:30:04	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xb16cff…
11-04 18:30:04	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x860ff0…
11-04 18:30:04	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	9¢	$2	0x5f4453…
11-04 18:30:00	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0xbecd84…
11-04 18:30:00	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x0fc82b…
11-04 18:27:34	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xab41c2…
11-04 18:08:46	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xb47271…
11-04 18:08:42	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x531e41…