Conventional-Mercury — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$236

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.1%

Resolved

Trades

439

lifetime

Volume

$33.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 06-26 14:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

49% 40% $-61

Politics

38% 50% +$1

Sports

7% 57% $-176

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	26	$2.8K	2,329	3,604	-1,275	open	—	06-15 16:19
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	14	$2.1K	2,016	1,818	+197	open	—	06-14 07:01
iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	5	$1.8K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-26 14:32
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	16	$1.4K	1,054	1,375	-321	open	—	05-22 22:21
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	10	$1.3K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	06-08 05:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	10	$1.3K	850	850	+0	open	—	05-07 14:08
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	5	$1.2K	1,000	500	+500	open	—	06-14 06:14
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	8	$1.1K	916	916	+0	Down	$-6	05-11 10:41
spy up or down on june 17 2026	14	$992	813	813	+0	open	—	06-17 10:24
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	3	$852	600	600	+0	open	—	06-14 05:18
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	18	$842	700	700	+0	open	—	05-31 20:23
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 8?	5	$832	800	800	+0	Yes	+$0	05-08 12:35
spy up or down on june 18 2026	3	$770	500	500	+0	open	—	06-18 10:07
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	8	$747	498	498	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 14:51
spy closes above 740 on june 8 2026	5	$708	600	600	+0	open	—	06-08 19:15
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3?	14	$622	598	598	+0	open	—	06-03 08:13
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 1?	4	$578	445	444	+0	open	—	06-01 13:12
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	3	$576	450	450	+0	open	—	05-24 06:41
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	4	$570	500	500	+0	open	—	05-23 13:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$556	400	400	+0	open	—	05-07 07:16
spy closes above 730 on june 11 2026	4	$550	500	500	+0	open	—	06-11 13:53
spy closes above 735 on june 10 2026	9	$550	500	500	+0	open	—	06-10 14:56
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3?	2	$540	600	600	+0	open	—	06-03 07:11
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of May 18 2026?	4	$510	500	500	+0	open	—	05-21 08:12
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	2	$442	280	280	+0	Up	+$0	05-08 06:29
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	5	$435	265	265	+0	open	—	06-17 12:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	13	$413	218	218	+0	No	+$2	05-06 12:36
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	4	$408	300	300	+0	open	—	05-15 10:06
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??	5	$395	286	286	+0	open	—	05-14 11:59
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	3	$375	250	250	+0	open	—	05-15 20:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 14:32:59	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	SELL	435	74¢	$322	0x03af54…
06-26 14:32:56	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	SELL	165	74¢	$122	0x24fe5e…
06-26 13:38:58	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	BUY	600	74¢	$444	0xc71fa8…
06-26 10:40:11	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	SELL	600	72¢	$432	0x693cc0…
06-26 10:30:58	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	BUY	600	72¢	$432	0x9c19f7…
06-18 10:07:02	spy up or down on june 18 2026	Up	SELL	285	77¢	$219	0xfc7f66…
06-18 10:05:25	spy up or down on june 18 2026	Up	SELL	215	77¢	$166	0xf31985…
06-18 08:23:11	spy up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	500	77¢	$385	0x37e4d0…
06-17 12:54:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	SELL	255	82¢	$209	0x8cc4fa…
06-17 12:53:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xb65c6e…
06-17 12:52:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xfbbf9f…
06-17 12:52:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xa05461…
06-17 12:52:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	155	82¢	$127	0xee3aca…
06-17 10:24:28	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	156	61¢	$95	0x0db2ad…
06-17 10:24:19	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xe428dc…
06-17 10:24:19	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0x851517…
06-17 10:24:14	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xe20789…
06-17 10:09:25	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	40	61¢	$24	0x6b6fdf…
06-17 10:06:14	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x283024…
06-17 10:05:32	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x379113…
06-17 10:02:11	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x287fbb…
06-17 10:02:10	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x5574b3…
06-17 10:02:08	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xdfcad0…
06-17 10:02:07	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x399d2e…
06-17 09:15:37	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	SELL	13	64¢	$8	0xdf4267…
06-17 09:13:43	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x802c65…
06-17 09:11:43	spy up or down on june 17 2026	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x2c5a83…
06-15 16:19:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	173	48¢	$83	0xeebf5f…
06-15 16:18:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	625	48¢	$300	0x575c02…
06-15 16:13:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x1a72a2…
06-15 15:59:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	800	48¢	$384	0xac4116…
06-15 14:59:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	900	46¢	$414	0x464996…
06-15 14:52:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	900	46¢	$414	0xfa5fb5…
06-15 12:53:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	78	46¢	$36	0xa8ef37…
06-15 12:53:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	51	46¢	$23	0x9046b7…
06-15 12:52:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0x76605a…
06-15 12:49:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	60	46¢	$28	0xf23bcc…
06-15 12:49:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	435	46¢	$200	0xe668f7…
06-15 12:43:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	12	46¢	$6	0xf3fdf6…
06-15 12:42:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	202	46¢	$93	0xf05a57…
06-15 12:37:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	13	46¢	$6	0x0b70c6…
06-15 12:32:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	387	46¢	$178	0x403eca…
06-15 12:28:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xdb91f5…
06-15 12:28:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xd75e1d…
06-15 12:28:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x85f0a5…
06-15 08:48:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	40	49¢	$20	0x66e1d4…
06-15 08:48:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	700	49¢	$343	0xfe6109…
06-15 08:48:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	60	49¢	$29	0x0af016…
06-15 08:39:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xc71bb4…
06-15 08:39:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xede9e0…
06-15 07:03:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	204	51¢	$104	0xfb9e3f…
06-15 07:01:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	204	51¢	$104	0x87e7ef…
06-15 07:00:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x89a6a1…
06-14 21:41:16	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Alex Pereira	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x45e020…
06-14 21:40:33	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Diego Lopes	BUY	85	58¢	$49	0xe237f6…
06-14 15:51:04	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	53	69¢	$37	0xce372e…
06-14 07:01:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	546	47¢	$256	0xfa708b…
06-14 07:00:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	70	47¢	$33	0xe70f2f…
06-14 06:59:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9542a2…
06-14 06:58:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xeb1630…
06-14 06:58:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x81fd20…
06-14 06:58:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x1d426b…
06-14 06:58:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x850e39…
06-14 06:58:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x3b0b96…
06-14 06:58:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	578	46¢	$266	0x161c65…
06-14 06:14:12	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0x779000…
06-14 06:05:13	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 btts	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xe50354…
06-14 05:18:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	SELL	500	71¢	$355	0x03957b…
06-14 05:17:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x678925…
06-14 04:30:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	600	71¢	$426	0x55abd2…
06-14 04:12:34	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 btts	No	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0xd926b4…
06-13 20:13:03	mlb nyy tor 2026 06 13	New York Yankees	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0x48f684…
06-13 18:42:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	503	53¢	$267	0x145b82…
06-13 16:45:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	638	53¢	$338	0x86525b…
06-13 16:45:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	62	53¢	$33	0x83859c…
06-13 12:58:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	700	64¢	$448	0x12dbb9…
06-13 11:02:01	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	700	64¢	$448	0x05a2bd…
06-13 03:55:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	137	73¢	$100	0xcb4771…
06-13 03:46:54	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	137	71¢	$97	0x3f316c…
06-12 13:41:07	mlb phi mil 2026 06 12 spread home 1pt5	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	35	52¢	$18	0x66e330…
06-12 12:03:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xa5d355…
06-12 11:54:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	390	77¢	$300	0x983fc5…
06-12 11:48:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x1b3f79…
06-12 09:23:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	500	77¢	$385	0xc7b7e7…
06-11 13:53:46	spy closes above 730 on june 11 2026	Yes	SELL	95	55¢	$52	0x15146b…
06-11 13:53:37	spy closes above 730 on june 11 2026	Yes	SELL	53	55¢	$29	0xe00d83…
06-11 13:53:21	spy closes above 730 on june 11 2026	Yes	SELL	353	55¢	$194	0x7a377b…
06-11 12:25:39	spy closes above 730 on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	500	55¢	$275	0xc1925d…
06-11 06:40:49	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	SELL	105	67¢	$70	0x739cfa…
06-11 06:17:42	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x855b0e…
06-11 05:28:48	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0xeaa5ee…
06-11 05:23:43	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	SELL	24	67¢	$16	0xc4616a…
06-11 05:15:06	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	SELL	55	67¢	$37	0x950158…
06-11 05:12:07	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0xb49041…
06-11 05:12:07	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x36ff76…
06-11 05:08:58	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x979cbd…
06-11 05:06:27	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x2a7f7f…
06-11 05:00:52	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xbe9741…
06-11 05:00:52	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xb57dfd…
06-11 05:00:52	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x3a87e8…