These-Lamp — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$3.14K

Hit rate

77.0%

Resolved

234

Trades

3,056

lifetime

Volume

$1.46M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$479

Open exposure

$21.6K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 08:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 105 days

Categories

Other

50% 77% -$63,117

Politics

49% 79% +$23,819

Crypto

1% 58% -$1,243

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$2

Sports

0% 100% +$62

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 103 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-25,000	-$17,000	82¢	$-20375	-$3,375	05-01 16:47
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+2,500	$794	43¢	$1.1K	+$282	08-23 09:55
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	+100	$82	96¢	$96	+$14	08-14 12:58
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+3,111	$103	1¢	$42	-$61	08-26 11:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	130	$90.0K	195,288	95,288	+100,000	No	-$49,303	09-15 16:38
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	96	$59.3K	56,605	17,179	+39,426	No	+$1,672	04-30 06:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$48.0K	26,000	26,000	+0	No	-$130	05-05 05:10
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	33	$45.4K	45,986	0	+45,986	No	+$586	01-07 15:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	11	$44.7K	37,500	7,499	+30,001	No	+$313	04-29 06:01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	8	$41.7K	30,000	15,000	+15,000	No	+$1,180	05-18 12:57
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	35	$40.4K	41,400	0	+41,400	No	+$1,044	02-09 12:56
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	33	$39.1K	39,834	0	+39,834	No	+$746	02-07 15:30
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	27	$38.6K	36,012	6,189	+29,823	Yes	-$748	02-03 21:00
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	24	$32.4K	19,619	14,509	+5,110	Yes	-$189	04-29 10:17
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	21	$30.7K	26,867	6,876	+19,991	Yes	+$241	04-21 18:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$28.9K	29,000	0	+29,000	Yes	+$78	04-29 16:10
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	21	$28.4K	29,290	0	+29,290	Yes	+$882	04-17 12:32
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	27	$23.0K	12,511	12,511	+0	No	+$1,950	04-01 04:35
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zeynep Sonmez vs Jennifer Ruggeri	67	$22.7K	22,681	0	+22,681	Zeynep Sonmez	+$24	05-05 18:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	74	$22.5K	27,000	0	+27,000	No	+$4,540	01-11 11:17
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang	27	$21.7K	21,764	0	+21,764	Ann Li	+$23	05-05 18:58
Wuxi: Alastair Gray vs Jie Cui	3	$20.4K	22,000	0	+22,000	Jie Cui	-$20,386	05-06 16:17
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Bondar vs Qinwen Zheng	40	$20.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	Qinwen Zheng	+$20	05-05 13:27
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	4	$19.9K	20,100	0	+20,100	No	+$152	08-18 13:44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	2	$19.9K	20,412	0	+20,412	Yes	+$518	04-21 18:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	5	$18.7K	18,773	773	+18,000	Yes	-$483	03-12 19:50
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	117	$17.7K	18,815	10,230	+8,584	Yes	+$1,256	04-27 17:02
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Nikoloz Basilashvili	33	$17.5K	17,523	0	+17,523	Nikoloz Basilashvili	+$18	05-05 18:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$17.0K	0	25,000	-25,000	open	—	05-01 16:47
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	59	$16.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$2,200	05-06 10:15
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	26	$16.4K	13,452	13,452	+0	Yes	+$269	05-11 03:28
another us government shutdown by february 14	193	$14.7K	15,068	10,346	+4,722	No	+$610	02-13 07:18
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Damir Dzumhur vs Adrian Mannarino	31	$14.6K	14,605	0	+14,605	Damir Dzumhur	+$15	05-06 12:37
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	16	$14.0K	14,264	0	+14,264	No	+$303	01-31 21:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 08:42:50	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	251	22¢	$55	0xc56dd9…
10-26 08:23:54	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0x269db8…
09-17 20:03:54	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	89	43¢	$39	0x8ce789…
09-17 19:24:30	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x2ee871…
09-17 19:14:28	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	24	43¢	$10	0xd6ebcb…
09-17 18:50:28	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0xd9e4ca…
09-17 18:40:51	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	130	44¢	$58	0xa5acbd…
09-15 16:38:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,818	12¢	$1,298	0xed5a97…
09-15 15:24:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,972	13¢	$776	0x7b3685…
09-15 15:23:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	154	13¢	$20	0xa967a1…
09-15 15:23:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	218	13¢	$28	0x58b47e…
09-15 15:23:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	347	13¢	$45	0xe428a7…
09-15 15:22:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	73	13¢	$10	0x6f1467…
09-15 15:21:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,236	13¢	$421	0xa1fbb1…
09-15 14:08:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19,182	12¢	$2,302	0xe2ee1a…
09-15 09:35:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20,000	11¢	$2,200	0x3d658c…
09-14 21:10:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7,343	12¢	$881	0x29e60a…
09-14 21:10:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x6ed14e…
09-14 21:09:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x31b068…
09-14 21:09:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x486049…
09-14 21:09:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	12¢	$144	0xcefe83…
09-14 21:09:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xba8caf…
09-14 21:09:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	187	12¢	$22	0xb2e19e…
09-14 21:09:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	12¢	$60	0x4900e9…
09-14 21:09:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	650	12¢	$78	0xcabce2…
09-14 21:09:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x6e61d6…
09-14 19:31:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	12¢	$1,200	0xd9e4f1…
09-11 19:39:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	164	17¢	$28	0xb95ad9…
09-11 19:38:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	242	17¢	$41	0x9571bb…
09-11 19:30:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,532	17¢	$430	0x766746…
09-11 19:29:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,042	17¢	$347	0x986fd0…
09-11 19:15:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0xba1440…
09-11 19:14:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	55	17¢	$9	0xe0b913…
09-11 19:14:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0x5c03a7…
09-11 19:10:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x6ee3e4…
09-11 19:09:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xd399e4…
09-11 19:09:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,938	17¢	$839	0xd783a0…
09-11 14:38:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	825	19¢	$157	0x3988b4…
09-11 14:37:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	239	19¢	$45	0xf1dc63…
09-11 14:37:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	19¢	$380	0x18d278…
09-11 14:37:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	95	19¢	$18	0xe04773…
09-11 14:37:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	947	19¢	$180	0x894add…
09-11 14:37:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	47	19¢	$9	0xa4e3f5…
09-11 14:37:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,053	19¢	$200	0x44706d…
09-11 14:37:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	227	19¢	$43	0x4e3214…
09-11 14:37:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	140	19¢	$27	0x139ca8…
09-11 14:37:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25	19¢	$5	0x06ba68…
09-11 14:37:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,500	19¢	$285	0xb1518e…
09-11 14:37:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,902	19¢	$551	0x1ea0ed…
09-11 14:30:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	18¢	$1,800	0x4e7b29…
09-11 14:21:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	19¢	$1,900	0xcc7b31…
09-11 14:13:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,277	18¢	$410	0x9bdc07…
09-11 14:12:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,681	18¢	$483	0xc78f3a…
09-11 14:11:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	48	18¢	$9	0x449bb4…
09-11 14:11:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	18¢	$54	0xac3256…
09-11 14:07:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,689	18¢	$2,284	0xc5fd2e…
09-11 14:06:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,874	18¢	$337	0x532882…
09-11 14:05:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	131	18¢	$24	0x6bb5d6…
09-11 13:59:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	18¢	$1,800	0x604883…
09-11 13:50:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11,000	20¢	$2,200	0x770f10…
09-07 11:20:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30,000	51¢	$15,300	0x0f3bf5…
09-07 06:14:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28,500	1¢	$171	0xba67d6…
09-03 12:56:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20,193	1¢	$141	0x1f2f3f…
09-03 11:09:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,270	50¢	$4,635	0x8c764f…
09-03 09:55:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	49¢	$11	0x898e1e…
09-03 09:48:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xe1f49a…
09-03 09:44:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,000	49¢	$2,940	0x58604e…
09-03 09:34:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xbfaea7…
09-03 09:30:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf99533…
09-03 09:30:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x349c1f…
09-03 09:15:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x805a6f…
09-03 09:10:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	368	49¢	$180	0x129bc9…
09-03 09:05:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0x8c9539…
09-03 08:59:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	49	49¢	$24	0x5a9512…
09-03 08:51:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	49¢	$11	0x5b8e1f…
09-03 08:46:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xae56f2…
09-03 08:46:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x67b3ac…
09-03 08:42:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x558a9e…
09-03 08:42:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x568a00…
09-03 08:41:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	39	49¢	$19	0xd854c9…
09-03 08:41:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xfe71b5…
09-03 08:41:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x0e9585…
09-03 08:34:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xc11bfc…
09-03 08:34:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x6ef2b6…
09-03 08:22:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x823ffb…
09-03 08:22:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x040194…
09-03 08:21:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xd7b93a…
09-03 08:07:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x70b014…
09-03 08:01:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,149	49¢	$2,523	0xb90c6a…
09-03 07:56:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	26,307	1¢	$184	0x45611d…
09-03 00:22:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15,000	44¢	$6,600	0x541d30…
09-01 15:34:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	38¢	$3,800	0x5ce610…
08-31 18:47:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	42¢	$2,100	0x6e2295…
08-31 18:38:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25,000	1¢	$150	0x8e23b7…
08-31 15:58:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,169	43¢	$933	0x3107dd…
08-31 15:58:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0x8f58b6…
08-31 15:58:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x7ff475…
08-31 15:58:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	81	43¢	$35	0x2d17d5…
08-31 15:58:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x341223…
08-31 15:58:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0xca1f0d…