Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19

Unrealized P&L

+$703

Hit rate

15.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$110.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$3.55K

Open exposure

$72.4K

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-24 02:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

70% 50% +$29

Politics

30% 50% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-28,266	-$27,180	98¢	$-27687	-$507	07-06 13:45
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	+21,000	$18,374	90¢	$18.8K	+$421	10-18 07:54
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+19,023	$17,351	92¢	$17.4K	+$55	10-24 02:40
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+8,784	$8,071	96¢	$8.4K	+$357	10-20 14:04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+50	$36	94¢	$47	+$11	10-06 05:35
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+1	-$365	98¢	$1	+$366	10-24 02:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	5	$36.5K	31,077	10,077	+21,000	open	—	10-18 07:54
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$27.2K	0	28,266	-28,266	open	—	07-06 13:45
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	6	$17.4K	19,023	0	+19,023	open	—	10-24 02:40
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	4	$13.1K	11,461	2,677	+8,784	open	—	10-20 14:04
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	5	$7.1K	3,948	3,947	+1	open	—	10-24 02:39
Will the Senate pass the Clarity Act by October 31?	2	$5.8K	6,210	0	+6,210	open	—	09-22 11:32
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$1.5K	0	1,475	-1,475	No	-$1	02-01 02:46
zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	1	$1.0K	0	1,047	-1,047	No	-$35	02-01 02:50
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	1	$313	337	0	+337	Yes	+$24	10-11 14:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$117	148	0	+148	Yes	+$31	09-12 02:08
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	1	$36	50	0	+50	open	—	10-06 05:35
Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	1	$27	29	0	+29	Yes	+$2	10-03 16:02
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	1	$2	10	0	+10	Yes	-$2	09-23 07:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 02:40:27	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,095	92¢	$1,007	0xaa313d…
10-24 02:39:32	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,028	97¢	$1,001	0x442afc…
10-23 16:14:36	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	67¢	$17	0x59c7a3…
10-20 14:06:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,925	92¢	$2,691	0x6b178a…
10-20 14:04:44	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	2,677	94¢	$2,517	0x02e74c…
10-19 10:13:54	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0x67c5d9…
10-19 10:05:23	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,777	91¢	$2,527	0x25b8b1…
10-19 10:03:50	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,719	93¢	$2,529	0x3da5fd…
10-18 07:56:06	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	9,930	91¢	$9,036	0xfb8551…
10-18 07:54:47	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	10,077	90¢	$9,070	0x826d28…
10-16 01:04:07	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	383	91¢	$349	0x346792…
10-11 14:15:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	337	93¢	$313	0x5fd4a4…
10-06 05:35:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0xfd674a…
10-03 16:02:11	Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	29	92¢	$27	0x39a07c…
09-23 07:16:34	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xfe1b27…
09-22 11:32:24	Will the Senate pass the Clarity Act by October 31?	No	BUY	2,168	95¢	$2,060	0xe637b8…
09-21 17:23:31	Will the Senate pass the Clarity Act by October 31?	No	BUY	4,042	93¢	$3,759	0x0f25c2…
09-20 03:37:04	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,922	85¢	$3,334	0x86c653…
09-19 15:45:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,913	91¢	$1,741	0xd9c7c4…
09-17 11:17:09	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	974	92¢	$900	0xc0edbf…
09-17 09:26:48	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	8,026	92¢	$7,416	0x6c3a81…
09-17 09:26:34	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	2,461	92¢	$2,272	0x95c9da…
09-12 02:08:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	148	79¢	$117	0x24f324…
07-06 14:07:40	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10,527	89¢	$9,369	0x231108…
07-06 14:05:55	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	289	88¢	$254	0xefe590…
07-06 14:03:20	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	19,243	88¢	$16,934	0xbef7a0…
07-06 14:03:13	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1,019	87¢	$886	0xdc2f25…
07-06 13:45:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	23,170	96¢	$22,273	0xcfd32c…
07-06 13:45:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5,097	96¢	$4,907	0x2473de…
02-01 02:50:30	zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	No	SELL	1,047	97¢	$1,012	0x7d2b41…
02-01 02:46:14	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	SELL	1,475	100¢	$1,474	0x32b1a5…