Likable-Birdcage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.23K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.6%

Resolved

1,885

Trades

7,955

lifetime

Volume

$101.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 14:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 199 days

Categories

Politics

58% 65% +$623

Other

37% 34% -$3,438

Crypto

5% 27% -$407

Sports

0% 69% +$5

Tech

0% 54% -$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 302 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us next strike iran on january 24 2026 et 848	31	$3.9K	2,033	2,033	+0	No	+$122	01-25 04:54
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	20	$3.6K	1,855	1,855	+0	No	+$99	01-12 04:17
will the us next strike iran on january 25 2026 et 395	18	$3.2K	1,644	1,644	+0	No	+$43	01-26 12:12
us strikes iran by january 12 2026 314	10	$3.1K	1,601	1,601	+0	No	+$55	01-13 05:02
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	30	$2.9K	1,871	2,071	-200	No	+$100	02-01 06:33
will the us next strike iran on january 23 2026 et 724	14	$2.6K	1,344	1,344	+0	No	+$43	01-24 08:37
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	15	$2.3K	1,354	1,354	+0	No	-$104	01-16 19:28
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	16	$2.1K	1,284	1,437	-154	No	+$96	01-15 22:04
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	12	$2.0K	1,041	1,041	+0	No	+$40	01-18 04:55
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	13	$2.0K	943	1,195	-252	No	+$132	01-15 03:32
will msft close between 430 and 440 week january 30 2026	10	$2.0K	1,516	1,516	+0	Yes	+$1,053	01-31 00:05
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	8	$1.9K	996	996	+0	No	+$42	01-14 00:28
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	17	$1.8K	1,475	1,474	+0	Yes	+$273	01-17 22:13
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?	63	$1.7K	12,300	0	+12,300	No	-$1,670	01-14 05:51
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	3	$1.5K	1,050	550	+500	No	+$47	02-22 06:10
will the us next strike iran on february 1 2026 et	13	$1.5K	795	795	+0	No	+$36	02-02 06:24
will the us next strike iran on january 22 2026 et 837	9	$1.5K	719	821	-102	No	+$12	01-22 23:04
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	7	$1.3K	748	748	+0	No	+$37	01-31 06:43
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	25	$1.3K	659	654	+5	No	+$0	03-05 04:41
meta above 720 on january 30 2026	20	$1.2K	2,190	583	+1,607	No	+$295	01-30 23:35
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	7	$1.2K	623	623	+0	No	+$11	02-23 06:34
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?	7	$1.1K	602	602	+0	No	+$49	01-10 05:42
will the us next strike iran on january 19 2026 et 726	7	$1.0K	518	518	+0	No	+$5	01-19 22:07
will the us next strike iran on january 26 2026 et 241	6	$1.0K	514	514	+0	No	+$13	01-27 11:50
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	187	$1.0K	691	691	+0	No	+$150	03-03 00:19
will open close between 5 and 6 week february 20 2026	17	$892	1,335	623	+712	Yes	+$352	02-20 21:33
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	196	$884	695	697	-2	No	+$121	03-05 19:11
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	10	$873	471	471	+0	No	+$33	02-01 06:36
will the us next strike iran during the week of february 15 21 2026 et	3	$852	434	434	+0	No	+$12	02-22 06:15
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	16	$852	732	730	+2	No	+$36	01-30 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:20:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x08730e…
10-30 15:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x57a776…
10-30 15:16:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xde7acb…
10-30 15:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x986fd0…
10-30 15:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x08131d…
10-30 15:03:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x38adad…
10-30 14:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe947c5…
10-30 14:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa020e9…
10-30 14:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc15816…
10-30 14:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xb7c291…
10-30 14:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb05764…
10-30 14:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x5e2e75…
10-30 14:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x3e8353…
10-30 14:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb67223…
10-30 14:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xf99f54…
10-30 14:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x925aaa…
10-30 14:43:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x7e7aa4…
10-30 14:42:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9eef9b…
10-30 14:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x82cbad…
10-30 14:42:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xebf8fa…
10-30 14:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x765137…
10-30 14:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x2a6782…
10-30 14:42:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xdd53d1…
10-30 14:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa03015…
10-30 14:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x7dfe1d…
10-30 14:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xcdc4d3…
10-30 14:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6931b7…
10-30 14:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x1ba854…
10-30 14:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x928098…
10-30 14:38:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x1cbfc9…
10-30 14:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x80bae5…
10-30 14:37:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x88e83f…
10-30 14:37:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x03c833…
10-30 14:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6ba22d…
10-30 14:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x52ee2c…
10-30 14:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x448dbf…
10-30 14:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x774ee2…
10-30 14:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xfe396a…
10-30 14:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xca1508…
10-30 14:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2110e3…
10-30 14:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x1bcb01…
10-30 14:24:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x03cf7a…
10-30 14:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x5fc2fe…
10-30 14:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x2c5297…
10-30 14:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xcc7f18…
10-30 14:22:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa48d69…
10-30 14:22:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xf1dfc2…
10-30 14:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x767f20…
10-30 14:21:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x5215f4…
10-30 14:21:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb104b3…
10-30 14:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x93ece3…
10-30 14:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x381e5c…
10-30 14:20:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x319fc4…
10-30 14:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xff530c…
10-30 14:20:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x0662d5…
10-30 14:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x78d978…
10-30 14:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x840c8d…
10-30 14:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x371086…
10-30 14:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x9ccfee…
10-30 14:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x19ef56…
10-30 14:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x283400…
10-30 14:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x241fa4…
10-30 14:02:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5b0622…
10-30 13:17:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd8aa82…
10-30 13:15:37	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in October?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x9cdbc2…
10-30 13:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xea3abd…
10-30 13:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x67ac4f…
10-30 13:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe102a7…
10-30 13:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xc5d7fc…
10-30 13:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xb34cb5…
10-30 13:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x57f500…
10-30 13:12:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb230c3…
10-30 13:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xa2a095…
10-30 13:12:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x8038c9…
10-30 13:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x1fc02c…
10-30 13:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x1bc2cc…
10-30 13:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf85046…
10-30 13:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x2a2fd1…
10-30 13:09:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xdecc26…
10-30 13:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0140ac…
10-30 13:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x4da354…
10-30 13:09:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xa2de7f…
10-30 13:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xc6a9e6…
10-30 13:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x6c6773…
10-30 13:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x5fb7f4…
10-30 13:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9bd0d7…
10-30 13:02:27	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in October?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb25244…
10-29 16:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3ba6d3…
10-29 15:57:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xac2890…
10-29 15:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xbfe8aa…
10-29 15:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf94516…
10-29 15:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd7b7d4…
10-29 14:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa18e14…
10-29 14:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x27f016…
10-29 14:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xb9b96d…
10-29 14:04:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xbc8011…
10-29 14:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x89ac55…
10-29 14:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xffea86…
10-29 14:04:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xef5df4…
10-29 14:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x12f3cb…