Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$18,485
$190 in 24h
Trades
1,625
Unique wallets
230
Liquidity
$10,173
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-04-28
last 11-14 09:12
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.3¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $7.6K
vs crowd: 1% YES on $12.9K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 75 | $5 | $7.7K | $7.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 27 | $45 | $278 | $233 |
| 🐟 Fish | 71 | $20 | $4.5K | $4.5K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 57 | $58 | $360 | $302 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 79 | $49 | $7.5K | $7.5K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 26 | $1 | $434 | $433 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 13 | $1 | $539 | $537 |
| Median | 30 | $1 | $1.3K | $1.3K |
| Below median | 45 | $37 | $1.7K | $1.7K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 16 | $2 | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 12 | $4 | $11 | $7 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 8 | $4 | $134 | $129 |
| unranked | 1 | $29 | — | +$29 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | +10,000 | $27 | $27 | 237 | 11-09 03:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x4501…39d7 | Yes | +2,482 | $22 | $35 | 194 | 11-10 06:40 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +861 | $857 | $857 | 11 | 09-28 06:35 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +548 | $1 | $7 | 6 | 06-14 20:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +515 | $514 | $514 | 19 | 11-13 18:26 |
| Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | +496 | $494 | $494 | 15 | 11-11 19:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +414 | $413 | $413 | 35 | 11-13 13:45 |
| Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | +377 | $375 | $375 | 10 | 11-10 09:26 |
| Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9 | No | +370 | $368 | $368 | 10 | 05-13 23:04 |
| Velvety-Burn 0x0380…073d | No | +357 | $356 | $356 | 10 | 10-29 14:32 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +342 | $341 | $341 | 10 | 10-13 17:22 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +318 | $316 | $316 | 20 | 11-05 17:10 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +310 | $309 | $309 | 11 | 11-10 13:12 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +289 | $287 | $287 | 13 | 11-05 15:30 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +287 | $286 | $286 | 14 | 10-26 09:40 |
| Quick-Behaviour 0x1d8c…757a | No | +248 | $247 | $263 | 14 | 09-26 16:09 |
| Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | +226 | $0 | $0 | 9 | 11-14 09:12 |
| Left-Cobweb 0x5d55…7cba | Yes | +200 | $2 | $2 | 10 | 06-13 23:18 |
| Spirited-Priest 0xc518…2594 | No | +192 | $192 | $192 | 8 | 11-10 13:12 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +180 | $179 | $179 | 17 | 09-28 06:35 |
| Impish-Downfall 0xd23f…94a1 | No | +169 | $167 | $167 | 20 | 07-30 14:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +161 | $161 | $161 | 20 | 10-22 01:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +145 | $144 | $144 | 17 | 08-28 18:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x597f…702c | Yes | +143 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-02 03:31 |
| Babyish-Starboard 0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | +142 | $2 | $2 | 4 | 06-12 10:24 |
| Cheery-Leap-Pressurisation 0xa328…4977 | No | +125 | $124 | $124 | 2 | 09-23 16:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x20a3…29db | Yes | +124 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 04-29 03:26 |
| Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | +120 | $120 | $120 | 4 | 11-05 15:46 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +112 | $111 | $111 | 18 | 11-05 15:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x827d…c558 | Yes | +100 | $0 | $0 | 8 | 11-10 07:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x11b2…6d33 | Yes | +100 | $0 | $0 | 6 | 11-13 13:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | +100 | $0 | $0 | 10 | 11-12 23:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xdad7…005a | Yes | +95 | $1 | $1 | 19 | 07-04 00:05 |
| Motionless-Stalk 0xe347…b438 | No | +85 | $85 | $85 | 2 | 06-01 04:07 |
| Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | Yes | +81 | $0 | $0 | 6 | 06-05 03:23 |
| Handsome-Fibroblast 0xf82f…5ac5 | Yes | +80 | $0 | $0 | 7 | 10-13 17:22 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +80 | $80 | $80 | 4 | 11-05 15:29 |
| Prickly-Barrel 0x558f…1a56 | No | +75 | $75 | $75 | 2 | 07-29 23:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | +75 | $0 | $0 | 15 | 10-05 18:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xae2a…384d | No | +75 | $75 | $75 | 6 | 11-04 05:00 |
| Rundown-Regard 0x39aa…583c | No | +75 | $74 | $74 | 1 | 04-28 13:14 |
| Wise-Keyboard 0x27ab…e521 | No | +74 | $74 | $74 | 19 | 05-22 14:28 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +70 | $70 | $70 | 4 | 10-22 01:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x8373…f0bc | No | +63 | $63 | $63 | 2 | 11-13 04:54 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +58 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 06-15 16:03 |
| Feline-Department 0x671a…2f1e | No | +55 | $55 | $55 | 3 | 07-29 23:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | +50 | $0 | $0 | 4 | 11-13 13:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xa499…2a2b | Yes | +50 | $0 | $0 | 10 | 10-15 12:54 |
| Charming-Cabinet 0xc5d0…02c2 | Yes | +45 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 04-30 07:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xfad9…f138 | Yes | +41 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 10-13 04:14 |
| Icy-Disk 0xa994…19a6 | Yes | +28 | $0 | $2 | 7 | 09-04 09:38 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-14 09:12:13 | Loud-Tape 0x15b9…fea7 | No | BUY | 12 | 100¢ | $12 | 0xa07d89… |
| 11-14 09:12:13 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa07d89… |
| 11-14 03:34:52 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd82c80… |
| 11-14 03:34:52 | Live-Agenda 0x2774…8d3d | No | SELL | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0xd82c80… |
| 11-14 01:29:11 | Tired-Meter 0x6360…1139 | No | BUY | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x651d1b… |
| 11-14 01:29:11 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x651d1b… |
| 11-14 01:17:11 | Well-Worn-Founder 0x8886…d7ea | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x97addd… |
| 11-14 01:17:11 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x97addd… |
| 11-14 00:21:00 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb92fc6… |
| 11-14 00:21:00 | Blaring-Show 0xaacb…4a17 | No | SELL | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0xb92fc6… |
| 11-13 23:42:46 | Elliptical-Lobby 0xa1c9…67e9 | No | SELL | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0xdf8d0c… |
| 11-13 23:42:46 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xdf8d0c… |
| 11-13 22:39:27 | Vapid-Horizon 0x693b…b490 | No | SELL | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0x3028ff… |
| 11-13 22:39:27 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x3028ff… |
| 11-13 21:34:28 | Violet-Pimple 0xc376…244c | No | BUY | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0x521a80… |
| 11-13 21:34:28 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x521a80… |
| 11-13 18:55:48 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x733e7a… |
| 11-13 18:55:48 | Mature-Granddaughter 0x8da5…ae15 | No | SELL | 12 | 100¢ | $12 | 0x733e7a… |
| 11-13 18:26:46 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb081fd… |
| 11-13 18:26:46 | Spotted-Concept 0x090a…0fa6 | No | BUY | 19 | 100¢ | $19 | 0xb081fd… |
| 11-13 18:26:45 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x46d02c… |
| 11-13 18:26:45 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0x46d02c… |
| 11-13 13:45:52 | (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x0da528… |
| 11-13 13:45:52 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 18 | 100¢ | $18 | 0x062e45… |
| 11-13 13:45:52 | (anonymous) 0x65fd…f2ee | No | BUY | 16 | 100¢ | $16 | 0x0da528… |
| 11-13 13:45:52 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x062e45… |
| 11-13 13:45:52 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x0da528… |
| 11-13 13:45:51 | (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x13aa6a… |
| 11-13 13:45:51 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 14 | 100¢ | $14 | 0x13aa6a… |
| 11-13 13:45:51 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 18 | 100¢ | $18 | 0xf48e88… |
| 11-13 13:45:51 | (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf48e88… |
| 11-13 13:45:49 | (anonymous) 0x65fd…f2ee | No | BUY | 15 | 100¢ | $15 | 0x5b269e… |
| 11-13 13:45:49 | (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5b269e… |
| 11-13 13:45:49 | (anonymous) 0x11b2…6d33 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5b269e… |
| 11-13 10:53:27 | (anonymous) 0x11b2…6d33 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd4f707… |
| 11-13 10:53:27 | Live-Agenda 0x2774…8d3d | No | BUY | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0xd4f707… |
| 11-13 10:50:12 | Secondary-Aftermath 0x8d62…d220 | No | SELL | 14 | 100¢ | $14 | 0x4d4b2c… |
| 11-13 10:50:12 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4d4b2c… |
| 11-13 09:58:01 | (anonymous) 0x11b2…6d33 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x0ebf2e… |
| 11-13 09:58:01 | Blaring-Show 0xaacb…4a17 | No | BUY | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x0ebf2e… |
| 11-13 04:54:57 | (anonymous) 0x11b2…6d33 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd471cb… |
| 11-13 04:54:57 | (anonymous) 0x8373…f0bc | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0xd471cb… |
| 11-13 02:26:43 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x6a2f7d… |
| 11-13 02:26:43 | Courageous-Linseed 0x0138…e76f | No | SELL | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x6a2f7d… |
| 11-13 01:02:07 | (anonymous) 0x11b2…6d33 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7248e9… |
| 11-13 01:02:07 | (anonymous) 0xdc33…7be0 | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x7248e9… |
| 11-13 00:08:48 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 91 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfe7537… |
| 11-13 00:08:48 | Cultured-Sightseeing 0xfa8e…a37d | No | SELL | 91 | 100¢ | $91 | 0xfe7537… |
| 11-12 23:54:09 | (anonymous) 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7ccaa0… |
| 11-12 23:54:09 | (anonymous) 0x11b2…6d33 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7ccaa0… |
| 11-12 23:54:09 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 11 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7ccaa0… |
| 11-12 23:54:09 | Cultured-Sightseeing 0xfa8e…a37d | No | BUY | 63 | 100¢ | $63 | 0x7ccaa0… |
| 11-12 23:29:18 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 28 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa01926… |
| 11-12 23:29:18 | Cultured-Sightseeing 0xfa8e…a37d | No | BUY | 28 | 100¢ | $28 | 0xa01926… |
| 11-12 17:38:21 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbd8426… |
| 11-12 17:38:21 | Well-Worn-Founder 0x8886…d7ea | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xbd8426… |
| 11-12 15:36:16 | Low-Bagpipe 0xdbe1…27e1 | No | BUY | 6 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x1deb2b… |
| 11-12 15:36:16 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x1deb2b… |
| 11-12 14:59:21 | Elliptical-Lobby 0xa1c9…67e9 | No | BUY | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0xec6b1d… |
| 11-12 14:59:21 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 9 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xec6b1d… |
| 11-12 12:04:27 | Forsaken-Armadillo 0x8810…2526 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xbefd03… |
| 11-12 12:04:27 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbefd03… |
| 11-12 11:54:39 | Mixed-Cassock 0xb264…3d5d | No | SELL | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x363669… |
| 11-12 11:54:39 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x363669… |
| 11-12 10:46:27 | Pricey-Million 0x005e…6d8e | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xe3f33e… |
| 11-12 10:46:27 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x6ddd1d… |
| 11-12 10:46:27 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe3f33e… |
| 11-12 10:46:27 | (anonymous) 0x8dc6…22a3 | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0x6ddd1d… |
| 11-12 10:27:13 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 9 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x830cc6… |
| 11-12 10:27:13 | Intelligent-Trouble 0xc01a…32fa | No | BUY | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x830cc6… |
| 11-12 08:18:45 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x38efbd… |
| 11-12 08:18:45 | Forsaken-Armadillo 0x8810…2526 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x38efbd… |
| 11-12 07:31:01 | Cylindrical-Film 0x086b…47c4 | No | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0xc8b36e… |
| 11-12 07:31:01 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xc8b36e… |
| 11-12 04:05:51 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xae515d… |
| 11-12 04:05:51 | Wordy-Pupil 0xa277…4a70 | No | SELL | 80 | 100¢ | $80 | 0xae515d… |
| 11-12 03:57:16 | Wordy-Pupil 0xa277…4a70 | No | BUY | 53 | 100¢ | $53 | 0xfdb5cc… |
| 11-12 03:57:16 | (anonymous) 0xa652…6f8f | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfdb5cc… |
| 11-12 03:57:16 | (anonymous) 0x1c16…45e9 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfdb5cc… |
| 11-12 03:57:16 | (anonymous) 0xa1aa…f2b6 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfdb5cc… |
| 11-12 03:57:16 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 11 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfdb5cc… |
| 11-12 03:57:16 | (anonymous) 0x395c…ee8d | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfdb5cc… |
| 11-12 03:57:16 | Adored-Dentist 0x9a2f…1f59 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfdb5cc… |
| 11-12 03:57:16 | Peaceful-Noun 0xd281…d750 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfdb5cc… |
| 11-12 03:33:34 | Wordy-Pupil 0xa277…4a70 | No | BUY | 27 | 100¢ | $27 | 0x7a7719… |
| 11-12 03:33:34 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7a7719… |
| 11-12 02:54:15 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5dce1c… |
| 11-12 02:54:15 | Secondary-Aftermath 0x8d62…d220 | No | BUY | 14 | 100¢ | $14 | 0x5dce1c… |
| 11-12 02:41:01 | Mature-Granddaughter 0x8da5…ae15 | No | BUY | 12 | 100¢ | $12 | 0x015622… |
| 11-12 02:41:01 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x015622… |
| 11-12 02:31:51 | Outstanding-Western 0x2e9c…84a8 | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x947bcd… |
| 11-12 02:31:51 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x947bcd… |
| 11-12 01:58:27 | Cylindrical-Film 0x086b…47c4 | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x7bd149… |
| 11-12 01:58:27 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7bd149… |
| 11-11 21:01:34 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x9d4981… |
| 11-11 21:01:34 | Vapid-Horizon 0x693b…b490 | No | BUY | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0x9d4981… |
| 11-11 19:55:48 | Joyful-Causeway 0x56c2…6219 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x8702a8… |
| 11-11 19:55:48 | (anonymous) 0x17dd…944c | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xdf83b3… |
| 11-11 19:55:48 | Spotless-Investigator-Overcoat 0x69f0…fb27 | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xc5751c… |
| 11-11 19:55:48 | (anonymous) 0x8dc6…22a3 | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0x8702a8… |