Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$124

Unrealized P&L

-$40

Hit rate

8.0%

Resolved

Trades

213

lifetime

Volume

$254

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$18

18 positions

First seen

2026-06-15

last 10-27 00:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

98% 9% -$122

Tech

1% — —

Politics

1% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes		+578	$4	0¢	$3	-$1	10-27 00:53
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes		+1,733	$7	0¢	$3	-$4	10-27 00:53
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes		+1,407	$11	0¢	$2	-$9	10-27 00:53
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	—	+905	$3	0¢	$1	-$2	08-16 04:30
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes		+479	$2	0¢	$1	-$1	08-16 04:31
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		+34	$7	3¢	$1	-$6	06-25 02:48
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes		+378	$2	0¢	$1	-$1	08-02 03:31
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes		+371	$2	0¢	$1	-$1	08-02 03:32
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes		+51	$1	2¢	$1	$0	08-02 03:31
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No		+4	$1	20¢	$1	$0	06-15 04:25
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes		+750	$6	0¢	$1	-$5	07-29 06:52
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes		+95	$4	1¢	$1	-$3	10-27 00:53
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes		+121	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	08-16 04:29
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Yes		+14	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	08-02 03:32
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?	Yes		+167	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	08-02 03:31
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes		+143	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	08-02 03:31
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes		+12	$2	2¢	$0	-$2	08-02 03:29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes		+20	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	08-02 03:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	10	$15	3,389	2,965	+424	No	-$9	07-28 23:38
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	8	$12	1,272	704	+568	No	-$10	07-28 23:46
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	8	$11	1,407	0	+1,407	open	—	10-27 00:53
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	7	$11	1,010	505	+505	No	-$9	07-28 23:34
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	9	$10	613	387	+225	No	-$2	08-02 03:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	6	$10	3,127	0	+3,127	Yes	-$10	06-17 13:13
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$10	672	108	+563	No	-$6	08-16 04:27
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	9	$9	3,612	0	+3,612	No	-$9	07-08 03:53
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$8	201	0	+201	No	-$8	08-16 04:27
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	4	$8	212	0	+212	No	-$8	08-16 04:29
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	7	$7	1,733	0	+1,733	open	—	10-27 00:53
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	3	$7	34	0	+34	open	—	06-25 02:48
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	7	$7	3,198	0	+3,198	No	-$7	07-09 00:01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	4	$6	2,100	0	+2,100	No	-$6	06-17 05:09
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	7	$6	604	194	+411	No	-$6	08-02 03:29
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?	2	$6	750	0	+750	open	—	07-29 06:52
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	6	$6	2,494	0	+2,494	No	-$6	07-08 03:53
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$5	7	5	+2	No	+$3	07-29 23:25
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	5	$5	2,264	0	+2,264	No	-$5	07-06 14:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$5	27	12	+15	Yes	+$1	07-28 11:16
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	5	$4	88	15	+72	No	-$4	08-02 03:29
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	4	$4	1,004	0	+1,004	open	—	08-02 03:27
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	4	$4	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	08-16 04:30
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	4	$4	578	0	+578	open	—	10-27 00:53
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	4	$4	95	0	+95	open	—	10-27 00:53
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$3	500	406	+94	No	+$1	07-28 23:39
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	3	$3	905	0	+905	open	—	08-16 04:30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$3	20	0	+20	No	-$2	10-27 00:52
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	3	$3	1,333	0	+1,333	open	—	08-02 03:28
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	3	$3	1,333	0	+1,333	open	—	08-02 03:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 00:53:45	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x7db125…
10-27 00:53:39	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xd6c649…
10-27 00:53:33	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x3cd3d0…
10-27 00:53:27	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x8a379f…
10-27 00:52:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2ead60…
10-27 00:52:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x642d51…
10-27 00:52:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xbc98ca…
08-16 04:31:19	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x8d5392…
08-16 04:30:31	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x51231c…
08-16 04:30:15	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc45859…
08-16 04:29:30	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	76	1¢	$1	0xb48894…
08-16 04:29:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xf35998…
08-16 04:27:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xee8b36…
08-16 04:27:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xe99f03…
08-02 03:36:06	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	1¢	$1	0xfe01b9…
08-02 03:34:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xd7a3b2…
08-02 03:34:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa50750…
08-02 03:32:44	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xdcd71d…
08-02 03:32:03	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	1¢	$1	0x60c5e4…
08-02 03:31:59	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	189	1¢	$1	0x34441c…
08-02 03:31:53	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x158824…
08-02 03:31:47	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x2efa5b…
08-02 03:31:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0x4aa459…
08-02 03:30:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x0ce4fa…
08-02 03:30:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x759432…
08-02 03:30:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x3ca9ee…
08-02 03:30:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf5ed22…
08-02 03:30:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xf65cec…
08-02 03:30:14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xaee68f…
08-02 03:30:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x62b5d2…
08-02 03:29:56	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xedafd2…
08-02 03:29:50	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x8ec9f3…
08-02 03:29:47	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x6a54da…
08-02 03:29:26	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x1da2cc…
08-02 03:29:20	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x2ed03a…
08-02 03:29:15	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x2c5b4d…
08-02 03:29:12	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x560f62…
08-02 03:28:18	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x4287bb…
08-02 03:28:12	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x34b7ec…
08-02 03:28:08	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x187855…
08-02 03:28:02	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xeb167d…
08-02 03:27:48	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xb73b6c…
08-02 03:27:44	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x808c67…
08-02 03:27:36	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x8029bb…
08-02 03:27:27	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	1¢	$1	0x9f50b2…
08-02 03:27:20	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xf55dc3…
08-02 03:27:14	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x9e22ad…
08-02 03:27:09	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xbf1a22…
08-02 03:27:02	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xee0069…
07-30 00:05:33	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x319b07…
07-30 00:05:29	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xa350a9…
07-30 00:05:23	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x4e3ba2…
07-30 00:04:14	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xf17bfc…
07-30 00:03:59	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xd90545…
07-30 00:03:42	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	126	1¢	$1	0x13ca3e…
07-29 23:25:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0x0356bc…
07-29 23:25:30	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	89	1¢	$1	0x1ddf37…
07-29 23:25:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x75c762…
07-29 06:52:42	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	1¢	$1	0xb5b3b5…
07-29 06:52:30	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xba4564…
07-29 06:52:12	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	1¢	$1	0x58c98f…
07-28 23:47:53	Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x8571e2…
07-28 23:47:50	Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x5672a5…
07-28 23:46:32	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xa6027a…
07-28 23:45:34	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	1¢	$1	0x85788c…
07-28 23:45:28	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xa70d1e…
07-28 23:45:19	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xce380f…
07-28 23:45:11	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x2b0024…
07-28 23:45:07	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x8ac438…
07-28 23:40:19	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	179	1¢	$2	0x6b7e2e…
07-28 23:39:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	94	0¢	$0	0xa2c26b…
07-28 23:39:14	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	194	0¢	$0	0xc7cbd7…
07-28 23:39:02	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x06f9c2…
07-28 23:38:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	424	0¢	$0	0xd6fc50…
07-28 23:38:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,542	0¢	$3	0x4f460f…
07-28 23:38:02	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	704	0¢	$1	0xb9adfa…
07-28 23:34:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	505	0¢	$1	0xe5efc7…
07-28 11:17:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	108	2¢	$2	0xa890c8…
07-28 11:17:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x862bb6…
07-28 11:16:34	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	119	2¢	$2	0x5b9cfc…
07-28 11:16:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	62	0¢	$0	0x2df78a…
07-28 11:16:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xcaadc5…
07-28 11:15:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x97bc95…
07-25 02:36:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xff0acc…
07-25 02:36:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xd9ed49…
07-25 02:36:03	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x8c7af8…
07-25 02:33:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x558309…
07-25 02:27:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0x44ff71…
07-25 02:26:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	250	1¢	$2	0x55037e…
07-15 00:51:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x232fa5…
07-14 10:37:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x5fcbdb…
07-14 10:36:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	148	0¢	$0	0xc49108…
07-09 03:13:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x2bb51e…
07-09 00:01:17	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	871	0¢	$1	0x56cb75…
07-08 23:59:08	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xe0d7ce…
07-08 23:58:40	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xb77712…
07-08 03:54:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x645eee…
07-08 03:53:47	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x6c674d…
07-08 03:53:41	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x10a976…
07-06 14:37:01	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x3153b2…