Realized P&L
-$921
Unrealized P&L
+$2
Hit rate
6.4%
Resolved
14,449
Trades
25,634
lifetime
Volume
$4.94K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$0
Open exposure
$4
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-24
last 11-01 02:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 98 days
Categories
Crypto
97% 1% -$872
Other
2% 0% -$50
Politics
1% 2% +$5
Tech
0% 0% -$4
Pop-Culture
0% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
12 active days in 12wk • peak 710 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? Yes +50 $0 1¢ $1 +$0 11-01 00:07
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31? Yes +50 $0 1¢ $0 +$0 10-31 23:14
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Yes +50 $0 1¢ $0 +$0 11-01 02:04
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-21 20:19
Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-30 21:36
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-21 20:23
Iran leadership change by October 31? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-31 09:22
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-21 20:32
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-26 07:08
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes — +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-25 18:37
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-21 20:23
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-22 10:52
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-28 23:33
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-21 20:19
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-31 17:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-30 02:56
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-21 19:57
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-21 20:32
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-30 04:50
Will Natacha Polony win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-22 09:55
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-29 16:47
Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-29 17:33
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-21 20:19
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-31 01:11
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-21 20:22
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-24 05:15
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-25 16:15
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-31 09:17
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes — +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-31 18:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +50 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 10-31 20:18