Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$6,658
Trades
172
Unique wallets
53
Liquidity
$1,857
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-14
last 07-21 05:22
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $58 | $1 | +$57 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 21 | $62 | $3.4K | $3.3K |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $38 | $29 | +$9 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 16 | $12 | $11 | +$1 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $15 | — | +$15 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| Median | 14 | $26 | $3.1K | $3.1K |
| Below median | 10 | $9 | $242 | $233 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 5 | $3 | $1 | +$2 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | $16 | $49 | $33 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $52 | — | +$52 |
| unranked | 9 | $48 | — | +$48 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | +295 | $212 | $5,962 | 16 | 07-20 07:39 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +120 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-30 23:00 |
| Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | +108 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-30 22:36 |
| Sane-Cytokine 0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | +100 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-05 09:36 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +78 | $5 | $7 | 2 | 06-30 23:08 |
| Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | +75 | $74 | $74 | 1 | 07-09 20:28 |
| Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | +50 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-30 23:04 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +50 | $49 | $49 | 1 | 07-20 15:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | +45 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-21 05:22 |
| New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | +25 | $25 | $34 | 5 | 07-20 07:39 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +20 | $1 | $2 | 3 | 07-03 20:17 |
| Wet-Event 0x6236…6881 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 22:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x30fb…7db4 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 22:36 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-30 23:05 |
| Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | +5 | $3 | $12 | 8 | 07-21 05:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | +3 | $4 | $8 | 6 | 07-09 10:20 |
| Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-30 23:11 |
| Black-And-White-Consensus 0x6415…f1ab | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 17:00 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-01 01:54 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 05:22:03 | (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | BUY | 45 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x29d52e… |
| 07-21 05:22:03 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x29d52e… |
| 07-20 15:47:57 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 41 | 98¢ | $40 | 0xd6a4d7… |
| 07-20 15:47:57 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xd6a4d7… |
| 07-20 15:47:49 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 41 | 98¢ | $40 | 0xac8d95… |
| 07-20 15:47:49 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 91 | 2¢ | $2 | 0xac8d95… |
| 07-20 15:47:49 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0xac8d95… |
| 07-20 07:39:49 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 900 | 2¢ | $18 | 0x7941e2… |
| 07-20 07:39:49 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x7941e2… |
| 07-20 07:39:49 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x7941e2… |
| 07-20 07:39:49 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 955 | 98¢ | $936 | 0x7941e2… |
| 07-10 08:07:11 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb4f34b… |
| 07-10 08:07:11 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb4f34b… |
| 07-09 20:39:38 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xe750a2… |
| 07-09 20:39:38 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0xe750a2… |
| 07-09 20:28:01 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | SELL | 637 | 2¢ | $11 | 0x09a29d… |
| 07-09 20:28:01 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 990 | 98¢ | $973 | 0x09a29d… |
| 07-09 20:28:01 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0x09a29d… |
| 07-09 20:28:01 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x09a29d… |
| 07-09 20:28:01 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | BUY | 75 | 98¢ | $74 | 0x09a29d… |
| 07-09 20:28:01 | Serious-Authority 0xe1f1…3a05 | Yes | SELL | 208 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x09a29d… |
| 07-09 13:57:52 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x0d79d7… |
| 07-09 13:57:52 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x0d79d7… |
| 07-09 13:57:26 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xd9217d… |
| 07-09 13:57:26 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xd9217d… |
| 07-09 13:57:26 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | SELL | 55 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xd9217d… |
| 07-09 10:20:35 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0x479643… |
| 07-09 10:20:35 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x479643… |
| 07-09 10:20:35 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x479643… |
| 07-05 14:22:37 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 132 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x69ae57… |
| 07-05 14:22:37 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 68 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x69ae57… |
| 07-05 14:22:37 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 200 | 98¢ | $197 | 0x69ae57… |
| 07-05 09:36:35 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xbe97c1… |
| 07-05 09:36:35 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 167 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xbe97c1… |
| 07-05 09:36:35 | Sane-Cytokine 0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | BUY | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xbe97c1… |
| 07-03 20:48:56 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | BUY | 600 | 2¢ | $14 | 0x27ce07… |
| 07-03 20:48:56 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 700 | 98¢ | $683 | 0x27ce07… |
| 07-03 20:48:56 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x27ce07… |
| 07-03 20:17:32 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xc13e07… |
| 07-03 20:17:32 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc13e07… |
| 07-03 20:17:07 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x758f2f… |
| 07-03 20:17:07 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x758f2f… |
| 07-03 20:17:05 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xf78495… |
| 07-03 20:17:05 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xf78495… |
| 07-03 20:17:05 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xf78495… |
| 07-03 20:17:05 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xf78495… |
| 07-03 20:17:05 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xf78495… |
| 07-01 22:06:01 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 200 | 97¢ | $194 | 0x0df565… |
| 07-01 22:06:01 | Serious-Authority 0xe1f1…3a05 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 3¢ | $6 | 0x0df565… |
| 07-01 21:56:44 | Serious-Authority 0xe1f1…3a05 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2bcbf8… |
| 07-01 21:56:44 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2bcbf8… |
| 07-01 17:00:37 | Serious-Authority 0xe1f1…3a05 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x4466d1… |
| 07-01 17:00:37 | Black-And-White-Consensus 0x6415…f1ab | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x4466d1… |
| 07-01 09:32:35 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 70 | 96¢ | $68 | 0x75cf52… |
| 07-01 09:32:35 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 70 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x75cf52… |
| 07-01 09:32:26 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa637fd… |
| 07-01 09:32:26 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 25 | 96¢ | $24 | 0xa637fd… |
| 07-01 03:08:34 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x4bd3ff… |
| 07-01 03:08:34 | Serious-Authority 0xe1f1…3a05 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x4bd3ff… |
| 07-01 02:07:38 | Pure-Silica 0x0bed…c85f | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x1d0136… |
| 07-01 02:07:38 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x1d0136… |
| 07-01 02:07:38 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf89e60… |
| 07-01 02:07:38 | Multicolored-Bell 0x21fa…6b35 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xf89e60… |
| 07-01 02:07:37 | Perky-Basement 0xa32d…60d0 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xc469c6… |
| 07-01 02:07:37 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xc469c6… |
| 07-01 02:07:35 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xdd2a4d… |
| 07-01 02:07:35 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x8d92bc… |
| 07-01 02:07:35 | Speedy-Deck 0xbe70…f23c | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xdd2a4d… |
| 07-01 02:07:35 | Grim-Local 0xebf5…ceb0 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x8d92bc… |
| 07-01 02:07:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x0af9cb… |
| 07-01 02:07:34 | Different-Tendency 0x03ca…7d15 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0af9cb… |
| 07-01 02:07:34 | Thick-Boost 0x2b30…ac4a | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xc9e262… |
| 07-01 02:07:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xc9e262… |
| 07-01 02:07:32 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x3f8e0d… |
| 07-01 02:07:32 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x496b79… |
| 07-01 02:07:32 | Motionless-Washtub 0x48d5…e4a7 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x496b79… |
| 07-01 02:07:32 | Daring-Cesspool 0x31c1…02f1 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x3f8e0d… |
| 07-01 02:07:31 | Clever-Fisherman 0x5c20…7f5c | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x609cf1… |
| 07-01 02:07:31 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x609cf1… |
| 07-01 01:54:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x752d5f… |
| 07-01 01:54:53 | Multicolored-Bell 0x21fa…6b35 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x752d5f… |
| 07-01 01:53:02 | Pure-Silica 0x0bed…c85f | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xf5f334… |
| 07-01 01:53:02 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8abc9f… |
| 07-01 01:53:02 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x474d9a… |
| 07-01 01:53:02 | Speedy-Deck 0xbe70…f23c | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x474d9a… |
| 07-01 01:53:02 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8988dd… |
| 07-01 01:53:02 | Grim-Local 0xebf5…ceb0 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x8988dd… |
| 07-01 01:53:02 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xf5f334… |
| 07-01 01:53:02 | Perky-Basement 0xa32d…60d0 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x8abc9f… |
| 07-01 01:52:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x1d1bfd… |
| 07-01 01:52:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3c3faa… |
| 07-01 01:52:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xdc2fa1… |
| 07-01 01:52:58 | Clever-Fisherman 0x5c20…7f5c | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x3c3faa… |
| 07-01 01:52:58 | Thick-Boost 0x2b30…ac4a | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x1d1bfd… |
| 07-01 01:52:58 | Different-Tendency 0x03ca…7d15 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xdc2fa1… |
| 07-01 01:52:56 | Motionless-Washtub 0x48d5…e4a7 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xa8b8f2… |
| 07-01 01:52:56 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa8b8f2… |
| 07-01 01:52:55 | Daring-Cesspool 0x31c1…02f1 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x212c50… |
| 07-01 01:52:55 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x212c50… |
| 07-01 00:58:22 | That-Fir 0xae11…2d01 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe7b881… |