Different-Tendency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

2.5%

Resolved

212

Trades

527

lifetime

Volume

$525

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-03 02:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 110 days

Categories

Other

49% 1% -$2

Politics

26% 5% -$1

Crypto

12% 4% $0

Tech

9% 0% $0

Sports

3% 0% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-03).

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	10	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	$0	01-16 07:59
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	8	$8	4	4	+0	Yes	$0	03-16 02:19
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	04-04 02:05
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	02-06 10:07
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	02-12 09:16
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	03-19 03:50
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	03-19 03:49
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	07-21 08:24
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	06-02 02:13
us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	07-21 08:23
bitcoin above 60k on march 27	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	03-24 08:08
bitcoin above 56k on april 5	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-01 01:38
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	03-14 03:22
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	07-04 02:01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	04-18 01:16
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	04-25 01:48
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	07-13 02:49
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-27 01:48
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	06-08 02:13
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	02-04 07:37
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	-0	open	—	07-08 02:45
Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	05-29 02:55
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-06 01:49
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	02-20 02:12
will shabana mahmood be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533205	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	07-10 02:31
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	03-24 08:08
Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	05-06 01:49
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-06 03:00
will iraq recognize israel by december 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-04 02:02
Human moon landing in 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-13 02:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 02:50:03	Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc3b9dc…
08-03 02:49:15	Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x4909fa…
08-03 02:30:06	Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x591235…
08-03 02:18:54	Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xafa6a2…
08-01 09:39:51	Will Don Beyer be the VA-08 Democratic nominee?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x69f5fc…
08-01 09:39:14	will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260728213423296	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1389df…
08-01 09:33:35	will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260728213423296	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe25e96…
08-01 09:25:26	Will Don Beyer be the VA-08 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa7db62…
07-31 02:56:18	Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x624491…
07-31 02:55:35	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by december 31	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd0e1b7…
07-31 02:32:50	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by december 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfef791…
07-31 02:27:51	Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7bc318…
07-30 03:14:05	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 31 2026 20260714210303209	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x427449…
07-30 03:13:29	bitcoin above 54k on august 4 2026	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x12d99f…
07-30 02:41:20	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 31 2026 20260714210303209	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf34690…
07-30 02:34:45	bitcoin above 54k on august 4 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xedaf99…
07-29 09:34:38	Will United Russia win the next Kamchatka Krai Parliament elections?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x098f93…
07-29 09:33:45	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x74788d…
07-29 09:15:08	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8252ec…
07-29 09:07:44	Will United Russia win the next Kamchatka Krai Parliament elections?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe77bbd…
07-28 03:14:36	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe1e20b…
07-28 03:13:28	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 28?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc55339…
07-28 03:04:42	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe435cd…
07-28 03:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xab6a5c…
07-27 03:05:33	Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb342f9…
07-27 03:05:00	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x49518a…
07-27 02:22:28	Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1b91f2…
07-27 02:09:15	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x10110b…
07-25 02:25:13	will hyperliquid reach 88 in july	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa99bb0…
07-25 02:24:13	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xadfe30…
07-25 02:10:07	will hyperliquid reach 88 in july	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x075a0c…
07-25 01:56:30	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x82c6e0…
07-24 07:54:12	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 1t cny 20260722211138920	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x03806a…
07-24 07:53:31	Will Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4e1ea8…
07-24 07:31:58	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 1t cny 20260722211138920	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6161a1…
07-24 07:28:13	Will Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd4b831…
07-23 02:59:18	Will Sean McCann be the MI-04 Democratic nominee?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x953cd1…
07-23 02:58:40	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x964aef…
07-23 02:49:00	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7d7c9f…
07-23 02:35:15	Will Sean McCann be the MI-04 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xae5a45…
07-22 03:18:39	tony dunst 20260707142702030	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xfe026c…
07-22 03:17:30	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x63e749…
07-22 02:48:39	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa6bfbd…
07-22 02:41:57	tony dunst 20260707142702030	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0cf01e…
07-21 08:24:16	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa29378…
07-21 08:23:40	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1029b2…
07-21 08:12:22	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe18c51…
07-21 08:06:01	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5f0920…
07-20 03:20:24	will there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260715005153971	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4a224f…
07-20 03:19:31	Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x98b572…
07-20 02:50:57	will there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260715005153971	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x856cd7…
07-20 02:42:18	Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbd1d59…
07-18 03:25:19	Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x288449…
07-18 03:24:33	Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xfc3557…
07-18 03:07:40	Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6e7e3f…
07-18 03:03:12	Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xda3d56…
07-17 08:05:12	will polymarket mindshare hit 75 by december 31 20260630144203053	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x067ca6…
07-17 08:04:12	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x86e41d…
07-17 07:42:25	will polymarket mindshare hit 75 by december 31 20260630144203053	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0c77dc…
07-17 07:36:55	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x00e728…
07-16 02:57:19	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc06499…
07-16 02:56:20	Will Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x142d88…
07-16 02:31:04	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x172ab9…
07-16 02:18:13	Will Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe2982f…
07-15 02:23:37	Will Adilet win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x43760a…
07-15 02:22:50	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2a5727…
07-15 02:13:13	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1c29be…
07-15 02:08:37	Will Adilet win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x87e041…
07-14 08:53:26	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf265c8…
07-14 08:52:55	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x794e21…
07-14 08:32:49	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x62c128…
07-14 08:27:13	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x42097b…
07-13 02:50:41	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x36add3…
07-13 02:49:07	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x151f3d…
07-13 02:26:55	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9cb82e…
07-13 02:19:55	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x62659d…
07-11 09:18:22	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x71bac0…
07-11 09:17:50	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf1c18a…
07-11 08:44:52	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4d5451…
07-11 08:40:52	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd69778…
07-10 02:31:41	will shabana mahmood be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533205	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x0699cc…
07-10 02:31:01	Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x128514…
07-10 02:13:55	Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x594153…
07-10 02:02:10	will shabana mahmood be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533205	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2513ed…
07-09 07:43:05	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd956f4…
07-09 07:41:46	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa31eb5…
07-09 07:26:43	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1f5078…
07-09 07:21:43	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdb61d1…
07-08 02:46:25	Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x80d717…
07-08 02:45:46	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x42ebd4…
07-08 02:26:59	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7bad88…
07-08 02:24:35	Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1c3cb2…
07-07 08:02:47	Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be less than 80?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x303d95…
07-07 08:01:59	Will Ann Wagner be the MO-02 Republican nominee?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x574d6c…
07-07 07:34:04	Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be less than 80?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe84d1c…
07-07 07:20:19	Will Ann Wagner be the MO-02 Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd1cded…
07-06 02:13:49	Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd3f31f…
07-06 02:12:32	Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2babdb…
07-06 01:53:49	Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe81d48…
07-06 01:44:50	Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x03f87a…