Thoughtful-Scalp — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.21K

Unrealized P&L

+$701

Hit rate

47.9%

Resolved

Trades

266

lifetime

Volume

$23.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

$5.47K

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 10-23 13:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Other

55% 48% -$128

Politics

35% 20% -$1,049

Tech

6% — —

Sports

3% 50% -$73

Crypto

0% 100% +$37

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	-3,217	-$3,458	90¢	$-2879	+$579	10-23 13:53
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	+1,312	$1,127	80¢	$1.0K	-$84	10-03 14:01
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	-842	-$863	97¢	$-816	+$47	09-15 15:48
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	+1,034	$570	70¢	$729	+$158	10-21 00:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	30	$8.6K	3,508	6,725	-3,217	open	—	10-23 13:53
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	34	$3.5K	3,180	2,146	+1,034	open	—	10-21 00:22
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	10	$1.9K	1,105	1,105	+0	open	—	10-09 14:58
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	7	$1.5K	422	1,264	-842	open	—	09-15 15:48
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	5	$1.3K	910	910	+0	open	—	10-09 14:56
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	7	$1.2K	1,340	28	+1,312	open	—	10-03 14:01
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	6	$719	400	400	+0	open	—	09-18 20:29
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.7%?	5	$500	516	0	+516	Yes	+$16	09-10 18:32
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	5	$493	322	327	-6	No	+$64	03-13 19:02
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	14	$471	642	220	+422	No	-$404	10-04 22:57
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%?	7	$389	270	250	+20	No	-$14	09-06 19:13
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$353	600	600	+0	Yes	-$185	10-04 22:14
Will Lionel Messi play for Argentina again in 2026?	10	$334	790	0	+790	Yes	-$334	09-12 15:53
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	3	$226	332	0	+332	Yes	-$226	02-18 18:20
will argentinas monthly inflation in february 2026 be between 2pt8 and 3pt0	14	$211	256	256	-0	Yes	+$38	03-06 02:56
will argentinas monthly inflation in march 2026 be between 3pt1 and 3pt3	9	$186	370	185	+185	No	+$147	04-14 19:01
will the us not strike iran by march 31 2026	17	$169	342	0	+342	No	-$169	02-19 14:11
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	3	$139	130	130	+0	open	—	10-01 16:56
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	1	$130	140	0	+140	Argentina	+$10	07-03 19:59
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	2	$128	154	154	+0	Portugal	+$48	07-03 00:21
will argentinas monthly inflation in february 2026 be between 2pt5 and 2pt7	3	$104	138	138	+0	No	+$21	03-06 15:31
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	1	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	03-28 02:12
lib ohi bah 2026 02 18 ohi	4	$98	56	56	+0	Yes	+$15	02-19 01:07
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	4	$82	559	0	+559	No	-$82	09-29 13:26
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$82	50	50	+0	No	+$18	04-04 15:56
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	2	$79	83	83	+0	No	+$16	09-28 23:17
will crude oil cl hit high 68 by end of february	1	$75	80	0	+80	No	-$75	02-19 21:41
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	2	$73	126	0	+126	No	-$73	09-13 12:18
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 2.1% and 2.3%?	2	$66	140	0	+140	Yes	+$74	08-13 19:00
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$59	48	48	+0	No	-$1	03-16 19:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 13:53:59	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	1,429	91¢	$1,301	0x817c2c…
10-22 00:28:41	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	1,906	91¢	$1,734	0x0b9c55…
10-21 00:22:57	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x90e4a9…
10-21 00:22:18	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	1,034	67¢	$693	0x2f41e9…
10-21 00:21:42	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	600	92¢	$552	0x099ba4…
10-09 14:58:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,105	84¢	$928	0x74a43a…
10-09 14:57:10	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	489	68¢	$333	0x1ebbe4…
10-09 14:56:34	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	910	77¢	$701	0xa8e286…
10-07 00:32:40	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x4596e9…
10-07 00:32:38	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	85	69¢	$59	0x7dcd6d…
10-06 23:52:58	Will Argentina vs. Benin end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	64	4¢	$2	0x40fb10…
10-06 23:50:01	Will Argentina vs. Benin end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x912403…
10-06 20:19:11	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0xf32f2f…
10-06 15:50:59	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	2	69¢	$2	0x20e502…
10-04 22:57:37	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	77	84¢	$64	0xc50957…
10-04 22:56:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x89e4ec…
10-04 22:55:46	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	166	69¢	$115	0x557df6…
10-04 22:51:37	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	84¢	$109	0x7a5876…
10-04 22:50:35	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	158	69¢	$109	0x79352f…
10-04 22:27:07	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	165	85¢	$140	0x7084ee…
10-04 22:15:13	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	220	15¢	$33	0xf7018d…
10-04 22:14:49	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	600	14¢	$84	0x1bec7d…
10-04 05:13:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0x449fe6…
10-03 21:16:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x65de17…
10-03 20:26:32	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	115	89¢	$102	0xd83583…
10-03 15:50:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0x330b59…
10-03 14:30:29	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	75	89¢	$67	0x92c7cf…
10-03 14:02:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	106	89¢	$94	0x44b258…
10-03 14:02:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0x35b69a…
10-03 14:01:12	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	900	86¢	$774	0x5b3ae0…
10-03 14:00:45	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	1,000	89¢	$890	0x11580b…
10-03 13:56:30	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x03e368…
10-03 13:56:03	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x707f83…
10-03 13:55:21	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x43a1b4…
10-03 13:54:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0xf8a8b7…
10-03 13:53:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	250	89¢	$222	0x68ff59…
10-03 13:51:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x74a6ef…
10-03 13:51:24	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0xa51771…
10-02 18:13:29	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0x155aea…
10-01 17:29:14	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x6196bc…
10-01 17:28:51	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xb45ce0…
10-01 17:28:20	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xcb7329…
10-01 17:28:05	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x95ef3a…
10-01 17:27:42	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	49	3¢	$1	0x2ac6ce…
10-01 16:57:35	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	110	2¢	$2	0x93af5d…
10-01 16:57:06	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	90	2¢	$2	0x9840d2…
10-01 16:56:32	Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	SELL	13	62¢	$8	0xf891ca…
10-01 16:54:39	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0xcece3c…
10-01 13:20:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	35	38¢	$13	0xbebe62…
10-01 13:19:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	18	37¢	$7	0x971ac1…
10-01 13:19:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x19862d…
10-01 13:19:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x1ff140…
10-01 13:19:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xbf8d78…
10-01 13:19:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	14	38¢	$5	0x250c8d…
10-01 11:46:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x578e9f…
10-01 11:33:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xc7f0cd…
10-01 11:20:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	142	38¢	$53	0xf90519…
10-01 11:13:56	Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	SELL	117	71¢	$83	0xc58c35…
09-29 13:26:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x7f84da…
09-29 11:48:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0x1ece4a…
09-29 11:48:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0x13cfff…
09-29 11:47:50	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	SELL	28	84¢	$23	0xe349f4…
09-28 23:19:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Yes	BUY	399	16¢	$64	0x3595bb…
09-28 23:17:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	83	57¢	$47	0x51f029…
09-28 22:57:56	Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xde4098…
09-27 12:55:51	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	Yes	BUY	70	39¢	$27	0x869272…
09-27 12:55:05	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	Yes	BUY	23	23¢	$5	0x9cb48a…
09-27 12:18:12	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x0a5750…
09-27 01:51:24	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x62a89f…
09-27 01:48:23	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	71¢	$284	0x9f05bc…
09-27 01:47:36	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	90	84¢	$76	0xc28393…
09-21 20:46:12	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xb5e080…
09-20 05:57:39	Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x042d8b…
09-19 22:51:55	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	72¢	$216	0xdccfa8…
09-19 20:51:14	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	431	64¢	$276	0x62774a…
09-19 20:50:15	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	605	85¢	$514	0xf8e38a…
09-19 19:10:02	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	19	64¢	$12	0xd4b45a…
09-19 15:16:08	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x442ceb…
09-18 20:32:13	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	300	64¢	$192	0x389877…
09-18 20:31:06	Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	BUY	130	37¢	$48	0xcc3ea9…
09-18 20:30:42	Will María Fernanda Espinosa be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xb38cec…
09-18 20:29:54	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	400	92¢	$369	0x5f3da9…
09-15 19:02:19	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x4cc855…
09-15 19:02:06	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x3eb7c2…
09-15 17:20:46	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	130	64¢	$83	0xb9b6e8…
09-15 15:58:37	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	300	64¢	$192	0x528a0d…
09-15 15:51:36	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	600	87¢	$522	0x1a819a…
09-15 15:50:55	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xfedc8f…
09-15 15:49:06	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	300	64¢	$192	0x3c8148…
09-15 15:48:42	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	1,214	95¢	$1,151	0xd3727f…
09-13 14:10:00	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x0b27e9…
09-13 13:32:16	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xaa942c…
09-13 13:32:06	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x8d8394…
09-13 13:27:40	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x875ed0…
09-13 12:18:31	Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xfef207…
09-13 12:18:19	Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x235be2…
09-13 12:00:15	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x6bda65…
09-12 22:17:34	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	83	38¢	$32	0xb52ef5…
09-12 15:54:27	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x5c96a5…
09-12 15:53:06	Will Lionel Messi play for Argentina again in 2026?	No	BUY	150	47¢	$70	0x0c84a5…