Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$103

Unrealized P&L

-$95

Hit rate

64.9%

Resolved

Trades

442

lifetime

Volume

$2.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$84

10 positions

First seen

2026-09-23

last 10-26 19:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

83% 52% -$108

Politics

12% 33% -$4

Tech

5% 50% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+29	$20	86¢	$25	+$5	10-06 20:37
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+68	$24	36¢	$24	+$0	10-02 10:21
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	+20	$19	98¢	$20	+$1	10-09 07:43
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	+50	$12	11¢	$6	-$6	09-23 09:31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+124	$26	2¢	$3	-$23	10-02 10:21
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+32	$6	6¢	$2	-$4	10-24 02:24
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+14	$2	12¢	$2	-$1	10-23 12:45
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	+203	$67	1¢	$1	-$66	10-20 07:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+7	$2	14¢	$1	-$1	10-23 12:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	36¢	$0	$0	10-23 12:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	64	$245	357	131	+226	open	—	10-26 15:38
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	7	$160	410	410	-0	open	—	10-22 21:47
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	43	$114	220	50	+170	open	—	10-22 14:53
Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	29	$113	175	15	+160	open	—	10-24 02:38
will polo make landfall in mexico as a hurricane 1790286699101	3	$112	144	0	+144	Yes	+$31	09-26 22:14
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	2	$100	111	0	+111	No	+$11	09-25 18:02
Plague pandemic in 2026?	4	$99	61	41	+20	open	—	10-09 07:43
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	7	$97	166	0	+166	No	-$97	09-25 21:31
will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	2	$91	100	0	+100	No	+$9	09-26 08:50
Will Vance peak at Category 2?	13	$90	110	0	+110	open	—	10-24 02:13
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	13	$81	83	41	+41	open	—	10-22 17:17
Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	21	$81	227	180	+47	open	—	10-26 00:59
Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	2	$76	88	0	+88	open	—	10-14 02:00
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	4	$70	689	486	+203	open	—	10-20 07:14
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	15	$65	40	40	+0	open	—	10-23 12:45
Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	2	$65	74	0	+74	No	+$10	09-27 16:46
Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	7	$61	57	16	+41	open	—	10-23 11:15
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	3	$55	58	0	+58	Yes	+$4	10-20 10:52
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	17	$54	49	18	+31	Yes	+$5	09-26 20:44
Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	6	$49	78	0	+78	Yes	-$11	09-26 09:39
Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	2	$44	52	0	+52	No	+$8	09-26 22:54
Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	3	$40	38	7	+31	open	—	10-24 04:56
Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	6	$40	24	23	+1	open	—	10-24 02:38
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	12	$33	40	40	+0	open	—	10-23 12:45
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	12	$31	75	13	+61	open	—	10-24 08:54
Will Vance peak at Category 4?	7	$30	85	85	+0	open	—	10-25 10:40
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	15	$28	40	40	+0	open	—	10-23 12:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	14	$27	40	40	+0	open	—	10-23 12:45
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	1	$26	124	0	+124	open	—	10-02 10:21
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	1	$26	30	0	+30	open	—	10-15 05:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:01:15	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0x047c4b…
10-26 15:40:17	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x293fd8…
10-26 15:38:08	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	88	5¢	$5	0xc2f00b…
10-26 09:28:11	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xf79d56…
10-26 05:39:47	Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	BUY	15	84¢	$12	0x709526…
10-26 03:12:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9,135	0¢	$9	0x885d11…
10-26 02:17:05	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x0ec356…
10-26 00:59:09	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$13	0x5f9752…
10-25 10:41:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x82099d…
10-25 10:40:42	Will Vance peak at Category 4?	Yes	SELL	65	2¢	$1	0xfd228e…
10-25 02:27:17	Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0x91b463…
10-25 02:27:11	Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xb7feca…
10-25 02:27:11	Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x6e015d…
10-25 02:26:03	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x466cd9…
10-24 21:37:51	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x57b312…
10-24 21:14:59	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xf2eafb…
10-24 20:45:14	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x29d7b4…
10-24 20:45:08	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	38	51¢	$19	0xd9d177…
10-24 11:52:50	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0xe62861…
10-24 11:51:03	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x47b0e9…
10-24 10:44:11	Will Vance peak at Category 4?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x90ba03…
10-24 10:36:14	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x10d902…
10-24 09:55:39	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x0ba01b…
10-24 09:50:38	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xaf0c91…
10-24 09:45:36	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xaa0ead…
10-24 09:35:26	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x504589…
10-24 09:15:03	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x77533a…
10-24 09:11:11	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xa00a20…
10-24 09:10:42	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0xb9de02…
10-24 09:04:54	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xdbc18e…
10-24 08:54:53	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xbbb1ce…
10-24 08:50:00	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x76d7bc…
10-24 08:49:50	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x78f008…
10-24 06:48:42	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x3907b1…
10-24 06:38:30	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xbe723d…
10-24 06:31:18	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x81af1c…
10-24 06:19:30	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xcf1314…
10-24 06:10:56	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x089345…
10-24 05:57:53	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$3	0xc0491e…
10-24 05:47:42	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xf6cd9e…
10-24 05:47:27	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xa79ce5…
10-24 05:40:11	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xec4cbb…
10-24 05:40:11	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	1	53¢	$0	0xc8b8f0…
10-24 05:37:50	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xbacb52…
10-24 05:37:33	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xacc22c…
10-24 05:27:47	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xdb9f9f…
10-24 05:27:08	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$3	0x674511…
10-24 04:56:39	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xc35c2c…
10-24 04:56:36	Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0xbc78d3…
10-24 04:55:05	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x589d4b…
10-24 04:41:17	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xd706ef…
10-24 04:35:03	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x56397e…
10-24 04:21:32	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x2cd15b…
10-24 04:20:51	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xfcae77…
10-24 04:19:05	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0x4fdbfa…
10-24 04:19:05	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	0	17¢	$0	0x329fa8…
10-24 04:15:45	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x7e0413…
10-24 04:05:36	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xf1fc4c…
10-24 04:02:20	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0x427dcc…
10-24 04:01:17	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x50e34c…
10-24 04:00:33	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xc9d149…
10-24 03:56:26	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$0	0x39b8fb…
10-24 03:56:24	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xc31bb8…
10-24 03:55:48	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xcc4373…
10-24 03:50:53	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x4f56aa…
10-24 03:50:14	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xcbf228…
10-24 03:43:05	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0xa6ce00…
10-24 03:41:30	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0x3b3430…
10-24 03:40:11	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xae64a2…
10-24 03:36:00	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0xf3641a…
10-24 03:14:24	Will there be 4 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb978d9…
10-24 03:09:53	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	21	50¢	$10	0x2880f3…
10-24 03:09:44	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x849c1f…
10-24 03:09:17	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	53	44¢	$23	0xc5a0e4…
10-24 03:09:15	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x8a493a…
10-24 03:09:12	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	26	50¢	$13	0xcbec7c…
10-24 03:08:36	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x7eac91…
10-24 03:07:02	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x18a3c8…
10-24 03:06:27	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xad272f…
10-24 03:06:23	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xecaf48…
10-24 03:06:05	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x767b27…
10-24 03:05:35	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc21caa…
10-24 02:59:02	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	14	23¢	$3	0xda5049…
10-24 02:55:56	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xd19d13…
10-24 02:55:39	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x3f01eb…
10-24 02:54:32	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0xa3176e…
10-24 02:54:24	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	25	31¢	$8	0x8ef068…
10-24 02:54:09	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x6f17df…
10-24 02:54:06	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	29	31¢	$9	0x19ec19…
10-24 02:40:17	Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0xda5437…
10-24 02:39:14	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x27b602…
10-24 02:39:12	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xa749b1…
10-24 02:38:59	Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	14	79¢	$11	0x31f95c…
10-24 02:38:56	Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x903580…
10-24 02:38:54	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0xb22052…
10-24 02:36:39	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x73e563…
10-24 02:36:21	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x9a1ebc…
10-24 02:36:17	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xb28249…
10-24 02:36:15	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6334cb…
10-24 02:35:32	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x0272ea…