Troubled-Karate-Backburn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$388

Unrealized P&L

-$578

Hit rate

91.8%

Resolved

Trades

229

lifetime

Volume

$21.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$96

Open exposure

$475

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 08-15 19:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

64% 77% -$205

Politics

23% 75% +$447

Sports

13% 100% +$145

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No		+400	$208	88¢	$354	+$146	08-10 22:59
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes		+2,684	$844	4¢	$121	-$724	08-15 19:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	24	$5.9K	4,454	4,454	+0	No	+$371	07-03 10:46
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	35	$2.9K	27,500	2,100	+25,400	Yes	+$145	07-07 19:46
mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	15	$2.3K	1,270	1,270	+0	No	+$178	07-30 21:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	13	$2.1K	1,609	1,609	+0	No	+$143	07-25 19:38
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	10	$844	2,684	0	+2,684	open	—	08-15 19:14
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	7	$748	660	400	+260	No	+$56	08-06 20:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$657	467	307	+160	No	+$52	05-29 15:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$577	400	400	+0	No	+$37	06-26 21:47
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	3	$530	425	200	+225	No	+$23	08-06 20:43
will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	6	$509	772	0	+772	No	+$263	06-22 09:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$450	300	300	+0	Yes	+$0	06-04 16:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$436	240	240	+0	No	+$11	05-15 20:30
will starmer say social media during the next pmq	2	$350	500	0	+500	Yes	-$350	06-22 09:28
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	5	$326	393	0	+393	Yes	+$67	07-29 12:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$308	600	200	+400	open	—	08-10 22:59
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$300	455	0	+455	Yes	+$155	08-10 20:22
Kash Patel out by December 31?	2	$254	200	200	+0	open	—	05-20 05:12
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?	11	$254	151	151	+0	Yes	+$27	06-16 09:13
will starmer say mrpt speaker 10 times during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137131	4	$201	101	101	+0	Yes	+$1	06-10 08:28
kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	10	$156	2,184	0	+2,184	No	-$156	07-19 13:45
will starmer say king or queen during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137147	4	$152	168	0	+168	No	-$152	06-10 11:08
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?	6	$150	208	0	+208	No	+$58	05-11 07:54
will starmer say constituent or constituency during the next pmq 20260610160650640 927 914	2	$124	166	0	+166	Yes	-$124	06-22 09:29
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	6	$105	827	0	+827	Yes	-$105	07-01 05:00
will starmer say victim during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137154	1	$100	103	0	+103	Yes	+$3	06-10 11:02
will starmer say police during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137134	1	$100	102	0	+102	Yes	+$2	06-10 11:02
will starmer say united states during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137145	1	$100	125	0	+125	No	-$100	06-10 11:13
will starmer say ukraine during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137151	1	$92	93	0	+93	Yes	+$1	06-10 11:06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	1	$84	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$84	06-11 12:57
will starmer say nhs 3 times during the next pmq 20260610160650632	4	$77	210	0	+210	Yes	-$77	06-24 11:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-15 19:14:40	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	1,277	23¢	$292	0x1a41fe…
08-10 22:59:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	400	54¢	$216	0xcd73be…
08-10 20:22:42	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	455	66¢	$300	0xe7ae41…
08-06 20:44:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x98da8c…
08-06 20:43:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x611f18…
08-06 15:03:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x70398d…
08-06 15:02:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	400	68¢	$272	0xdc3402…
08-04 14:04:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	311	69¢	$215	0x505d72…
08-04 13:58:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x8ca3fa…
08-04 13:55:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x746666…
08-04 13:45:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x363785…
08-04 13:44:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	68	69¢	$47	0x8a3a7d…
08-04 13:44:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xc76580…
07-31 04:29:23	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	176	30¢	$53	0xf0bf44…
07-30 21:26:38	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	836	99¢	$828	0x22be5b…
07-30 20:59:26	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x434169…
07-30 20:53:24	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x4e4f0e…
07-30 17:03:09	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xec482f…
07-30 15:49:54	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	150	99¢	$148	0xcb8538…
07-30 15:11:57	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xae73b4…
07-30 14:41:32	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x35904d…
07-30 14:09:38	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xe0d78c…
07-30 13:47:09	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xa8fe4a…
07-30 13:46:42	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	223	30¢	$67	0xdf2685…
07-30 13:45:51	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	35	99¢	$34	0x2b8073…
07-29 12:31:15	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	9	83¢	$8	0x80c4ca…
07-27 10:04:19	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	59	83¢	$49	0x04b497…
07-26 14:06:43	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	172	83¢	$143	0x988b8d…
07-25 23:32:12	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x3c4e49…
07-25 19:38:51	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	151	83¢	$125	0x43e3e4…
07-25 19:38:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	400	99¢	$397	0xbef335…
07-19 13:45:55	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	1,705	6¢	$100	0x8931f3…
07-19 13:45:36	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x22000a…
07-17 21:09:01	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	425	85¢	$361	0x57a0b4…
07-17 20:35:18	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	145	85¢	$123	0x0ee633…
07-17 19:44:04	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	55	85¢	$47	0xfc7c71…
07-17 18:43:28	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	36	85¢	$31	0x5f5cb4…
07-17 18:41:06	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x3ec59a…
07-17 18:39:40	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	88	85¢	$75	0xb84458…
07-17 18:39:36	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	BUY	321	85¢	$273	0xc5bd86…
07-12 22:26:08	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	320	35¢	$112	0x7e5ccc…
07-12 22:12:38	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	56	35¢	$19	0x94f798…
07-12 22:09:59	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	24	35¢	$8	0x3dc923…
07-11 22:05:20	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	133	12¢	$16	0x7b5c63…
07-11 21:45:40	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	73	12¢	$9	0x76883f…
07-11 21:23:38	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xe03ea8…
07-11 21:08:08	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	81	12¢	$10	0x9d9d7b…
07-11 20:57:08	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x6e4aba…
07-11 20:21:05	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x13218c…
07-11 20:20:29	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xbd4727…
07-11 18:03:52	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	52	11¢	$6	0x6416a1…
07-10 19:33:11	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	400	49¢	$196	0x557bc7…
07-10 11:27:22	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x566e11…
07-07 19:46:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$50	0x5fb5f2…
07-06 21:54:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0xcf8876…
07-06 21:47:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	400	85¢	$340	0x9e5f24…
07-06 21:42:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	198	14¢	$28	0x8a8d98…
07-06 21:42:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xa4c5b8…
07-06 21:39:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	217	82¢	$178	0xc95612…
07-06 21:39:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	183	82¢	$150	0x98a0da…
07-06 21:25:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x475e04…
07-06 21:22:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	157	80¢	$126	0xa1ee1e…
07-06 21:15:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0xea6db2…
07-06 21:15:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	130	77¢	$100	0xe5e0db…
07-06 21:15:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	32	77¢	$25	0x8c656d…
07-06 21:15:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	323	77¢	$249	0xf4369c…
07-06 21:15:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	26	77¢	$20	0xbd0bdc…
07-06 21:15:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	87	77¢	$67	0x89cd5e…
07-06 21:15:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	460	77¢	$354	0x0a353c…
07-06 21:15:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x04eafc…
07-06 21:15:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	262	77¢	$202	0xa0f81e…
07-06 21:07:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	600	27¢	$160	0xae9ed2…
07-06 21:05:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	600	64¢	$386	0x4cd68e…
07-05 00:39:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x4c4170…
07-05 00:35:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x995d94…
07-05 00:13:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xec2951…
07-05 00:01:28	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xd023d3…
07-04 23:53:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	16	34¢	$5	0x192b5a…
07-04 23:41:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xf4d404…
07-04 23:35:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xa55037…
07-04 23:19:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0xbce70b…
07-04 23:18:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x0b5e10…
07-04 23:11:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xbf17f7…
07-04 23:09:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xaf5613…
07-04 23:08:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x9d9996…
07-04 22:58:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	41	34¢	$14	0x74fd4e…
07-04 22:52:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x283540…
07-04 22:24:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	157	34¢	$53	0x49b2d5…
07-04 15:02:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	400	80¢	$320	0x40510b…
07-04 14:46:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	400	79¢	$316	0x63d2d8…
07-03 12:58:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x2ca26c…
07-03 10:46:31	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xf1e7b4…
07-03 10:04:11	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xb91480…
07-03 10:00:38	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	71	99¢	$70	0xa23d85…
07-03 09:58:29	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	908	99¢	$900	0xd314b6…
07-03 06:52:29	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	755	99¢	$749	0x1eee75…
07-01 05:00:49	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	480	14¢	$67	0x1ebc28…
07-01 05:00:23	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	142	13¢	$18	0xe3a0c8…
07-01 04:59:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	94	12¢	$11	0xf31e27…
06-30 18:31:16	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x548e72…