Yellowish-Soil — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$170

Unrealized P&L

-$22

Hit rate

86.1%

Resolved

368

Trades

1,195

lifetime

Volume

$24.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$471

14 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 10-28 21:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 98 days

Categories

Other

64% 81% -$95

Crypto

20% 85% -$145

Politics

12% 81% +$27

Tech

4% 86% +$25

Sports

0% 100% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 93 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+150	$72	58¢	$88	+$16	10-02 16:16
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	+100	$74	80¢	$80	+$5	10-26 23:14
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	+100	$76	76¢	$76	-$1	10-12 16:43
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+150	$85	42¢	$62	-$23	10-06 05:31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	+50	$34	91¢	$46	+$12	09-29 01:36
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	+50	$36	82¢	$41	+$5	10-22 18:19
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+100	$31	24¢	$24	-$7	10-04 20:56
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+100	$28	20¢	$20	-$8	10-27 20:28
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	+20	$15	98¢	$20	+$4	09-29 15:51
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	+50	$15	18¢	$9	-$6	10-26 22:41
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+50	$16	9¢	$4	-$11	09-29 02:34
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	+1	$4	58¢	$1	-$3	10-23 03:46
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	+1	$2	42¢	$0	-$1	10-27 20:58
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$4	2¢	$0	-$4	09-29 13:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	33	$377	535	435	+100	open	—	10-26 22:41
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	13	$324	350	150	+200	open	—	10-12 16:43
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	8	$304	300	300	+0	open	—	10-28 22:15
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	15	$264	450	250	+200	open	—	10-27 20:28
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	43	$258	569	618	-49	No	-$4	10-13 16:00
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	63	$254	937	990	-53	No	-$9	10-14 00:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	15	$248	400	100	+300	open	—	10-06 05:31
will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	5	$246	130	130	+0	Yes	+$14	04-19 22:59
amzn close above 245 on april 20 2026	2	$158	80	80	+0	Yes	+$2	04-20 20:31
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	36	$157	634	687	-53	No	+$6	10-13 23:54
nflx quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 16 2026 0pt76	3	$157	80	80	+0	Yes	+$3	04-16 20:28
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	5	$150	157	0	+157	Yes	+$6	04-28 00:07
nvda close above 195 on april 15 2026	3	$136	70	70	+0	Yes	+$4	04-16 01:46
mbwm quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 21 2026 1pt26	3	$134	71	70	+0	Yes	+$7	04-21 10:46
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 12?	3	$133	100	50	+50	Yes	-$2	05-12 17:10
xrp above 1pt4 on april 23	3	$131	70	70	+0	Yes	+$8	04-23 15:17
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on April 24?	3	$130	70	70	+0	Yes	+$10	04-24 21:52
spy closes above 700 on april 21 2026	2	$130	66	66	+0	Yes	+$2	04-21 21:59
will claude opus 4 6 thinking be the best ai model on april 24 2026	3	$128	70	70	+0	Yes	+$11	04-24 16:29
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	3	$118	60	60	+0	Yes	+$2	04-29 17:04
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 4?	3	$117	60	60	+0	Yes	+$3	05-04 18:56
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26?	2	$117	60	60	+0	Yes	+$3	04-26 13:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4?	2	$116	60	60	+0	Yes	+$4	05-04 17:05
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25?	2	$116	60	60	+0	Yes	+$4	04-25 19:14
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	2	$116	60	60	+0	Yes	+$4	04-27 16:45
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on April 24?	2	$116	60	60	+0	Yes	+$4	04-24 21:51
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of April 20 above $365?	2	$116	60	60	+0	Yes	+$4	04-24 22:30
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	2	$116	60	60	+0	Yes	+$4	04-27 21:17
pg quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 24 2026 1pt56	2	$115	60	60	+0	Yes	+$5	04-24 11:14
will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on april 24	2	$115	60	60	+0	Yes	+$5	04-24 15:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 22:15:32	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0x3d10bd…
10-28 21:44:26	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0x594e83…
10-27 22:18:20	Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	60	14¢	$8	0x015e2f…
10-27 20:58:21	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x9ca092…
10-27 20:28:36	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0xa33668…
10-27 20:28:33	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x29a467…
10-27 19:58:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	50	79¢	$39	0x85f407…
10-27 19:58:00	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x0ca6de…
10-27 19:17:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xf3d83f…
10-27 19:17:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xc70506…
10-27 19:17:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x3d8795…
10-27 19:16:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0x51274d…
10-27 18:52:30	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x499447…
10-27 18:29:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xa849e9…
10-27 17:32:24	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xccf062…
10-27 17:17:39	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	70	55¢	$38	0x58ddf2…
10-27 17:15:29	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0xcfbd10…
10-27 17:10:50	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0x952316…
10-27 15:44:51	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0xc732b1…
10-27 15:44:50	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	37	22¢	$8	0x969fb8…
10-27 15:44:09	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	44	21¢	$9	0x13f927…
10-27 15:43:57	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x2e47f0…
10-27 15:42:48	Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x2c40cc…
10-27 14:36:30	Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x7fd85d…
10-27 14:23:11	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x15d120…
10-27 14:13:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0x852278…
10-27 13:52:26	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x53f2b1…
10-27 13:15:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x70102d…
10-27 12:48:12	Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	26	17¢	$4	0xf0a07b…
10-27 12:48:12	Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	34	17¢	$6	0x6debe7…
10-27 08:46:17	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0xb4090d…
10-27 08:37:21	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0x8e96bb…
10-27 08:05:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	67¢	$34	0xdd304f…
10-27 07:06:57	Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x655445…
10-27 05:36:24	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0x578e57…
10-27 03:58:26	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	19¢	$1	0x0f742a…
10-27 03:36:51	Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x9fab9d…
10-27 03:26:59	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	36	19¢	$7	0x0c6572…
10-27 03:26:57	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xd7abdf…
10-27 00:08:45	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x69ec7d…
10-26 23:19:44	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x56747c…
10-26 23:19:42	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xd6f3c0…
10-26 23:14:00	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xb86302…
10-26 22:50:20	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0x9ccc7e…
10-26 22:50:18	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0xed6762…
10-26 22:41:11	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	22¢	$9	0xa32fa6…
10-26 22:35:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x6dca5b…
10-26 21:26:12	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x1ed4d8…
10-26 16:37:29	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xb7a976…
10-26 16:04:44	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xb78edf…
10-26 15:50:12	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0x9ab1db…
10-26 13:43:53	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x2db980…
10-26 13:11:03	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0xa9c4a1…
10-26 12:58:17	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x4a71ae…
10-26 12:17:03	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	SELL	60	74¢	$45	0xc4aa45…
10-26 11:57:23	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x85cf61…
10-26 10:04:36	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	57	20¢	$11	0x0ea627…
10-26 09:09:47	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	3	20¢	$1	0xf52b68…
10-26 08:46:56	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xdad97d…
10-26 08:29:35	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	60	22¢	$13	0x495f73…
10-26 04:55:45	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xcf2adb…
10-26 01:22:41	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xc66148…
10-23 09:26:21	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	24¢	$10	0x9b6d78…
10-23 06:10:06	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	60	83¢	$50	0x487ece…
10-23 06:08:06	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x9516c5…
10-23 05:55:41	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x06073d…
10-23 03:46:11	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	49	53¢	$26	0x3928b1…
10-23 03:11:47	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x7f4c61…
10-23 00:19:56	Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	No	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0x85be95…
10-23 00:15:57	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x47cbd6…
10-22 22:34:14	Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x446870…
10-22 22:08:17	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.75 on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	66¢	$26	0xf5a128…
10-22 22:03:59	Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xa0c74e…
10-22 18:38:03	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.75 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x078740…
10-22 18:19:12	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xbb94b1…
10-22 18:19:12	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x558e4f…
10-22 18:19:12	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	9	76¢	$7	0x1812bd…
10-22 18:19:11	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x9ba9e2…
10-22 18:19:09	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x8f1a70…
10-22 17:23:54	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xba70f9…
10-22 17:04:26	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0x898e8a…
10-22 15:59:53	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x8c93d4…
10-22 07:07:26	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xf4ea5c…
10-22 06:47:05	Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	70	52¢	$36	0x21a577…
10-22 05:18:24	US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x20b660…
10-22 03:08:29	Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x318a4b…
10-22 02:39:20	Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xef5445…
10-22 02:39:20	Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	3	53¢	$1	0xdbc2a3…
10-22 02:39:20	Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x342ac9…
10-22 01:48:17	US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x58ef93…
10-22 01:28:00	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	SELL	46	83¢	$39	0x57b82c…
10-22 01:25:48	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0xfc7d42…
10-22 01:22:35	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xdc63c1…
10-21 23:38:21	Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xc6c9ce…
10-21 21:16:56	Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	BUY	80	53¢	$42	0x87c239…
10-21 18:12:35	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	34¢	$17	0x650e6d…
10-21 18:10:14	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x014cc2…
10-21 17:54:47	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x8fa09e…
10-21 17:02:26	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x985473…
10-21 00:36:44	Will Stephen Wilson Jr. win New Artist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x0acc97…