Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$56

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

61.0%

Resolved

Trades

141

lifetime

Volume

$625

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-09-15

last 10-13 18:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 46% -$3

Other

33% 15% -$54

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes		+123	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	10-07 18:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	3	$49	77	53	+25	Down	+$14	10-08 07:34
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	2	$29	75	75	+0	Yes	+$17	09-22 13:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	4	$25	23	23	+0	Up	+$9	10-06 04:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	2	$24	29	29	+0	Up	+$10	10-07 19:22
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	2	$23	19	19	+0	Yes	+$14	09-18 16:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	2	$23	42	42	+0	Down	+$13	10-07 19:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	3	$19	29	19	+10	Up	+$5	10-08 07:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:35 UTC	2	$16	8	8	+0	Down	+$0	09-29 06:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	2	$15	21	21	+0	Up	-$5	09-15 20:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 05:55 UTC	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	09-29 06:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 00:10 UTC	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	09-17 00:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 04:25 UTC	3	$12	56	11	+44	Down	-$4	09-18 04:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	10-06 04:54
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	2	$10	19	19	+0	No	+$4	10-05 01:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 00:00 UTC	1	$10	14	0	+14	Up	+$4	09-17 00:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	1	$10	59	0	+59	Down	-$10	10-08 07:51
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	4	$9	16	16	+0	Yes	+$6	09-29 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	2	$9	58	0	+58	Down	-$9	10-08 07:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	1	$9	43	0	+43	Down	-$9	10-08 07:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:45 UTC	1	$9	10	0	+10	Down	+$1	09-30 05:47
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	3	$9	128	128	+0	open	—	10-13 18:07
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$8	39	0	+39	No	-$8	09-22 17:53
presidents cup 2026	2	$8	12	12	+0	USA	+$4	09-26 10:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:40 UTC	1	$8	10	0	+10	Up	+$2	09-29 06:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	2	$8	7	7	+0	Down	+$4	10-06 19:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 02:10 UTC	2	$7	7	7	+0	Up	+$3	10-05 02:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 01:15 UTC	2	$7	4	4	+0	Up	+$1	09-17 01:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	1	$7	70	0	+70	Up	-$7	10-08 07:37
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$7	9	9	+0	open	—	09-23 17:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	3	$7	9	6	+3	Down	+$1	10-06 04:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 18:22:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7e8257…
10-13 18:20:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xa9b909…
10-13 18:07:45	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	65	4¢	$3	0xe8cba2…
10-13 18:07:19	Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	71	3¢	$2	0x2c5be5…
10-08 07:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xce73c5…
10-08 07:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	43	21¢	$9	0xb93f46…
10-08 07:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	70	10¢	$7	0x3f003b…
10-08 07:34:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x3bb845…
10-08 07:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	53	36¢	$19	0x2efd79…
10-08 07:32:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x18ff28…
10-08 07:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xe3071b…
10-08 07:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x5869fe…
10-08 07:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xb1079e…
10-08 07:17:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xd8294c…
10-08 07:16:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	19	64¢	$12	0x4e4ac0…
10-08 07:15:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xe704df…
10-08 06:44:27	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	16¢	$5	0x90d6e8…
10-08 06:40:23	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	274	1¢	$3	0x43a9d5…
10-08 06:39:27	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x22757e…
10-08 06:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x17c237…
10-07 19:22:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	29	59¢	$17	0x68ed0d…
10-07 19:22:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	29	24¢	$7	0x019d97…
10-07 19:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	42	44¢	$18	0x8da807…
10-07 19:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xbc84a3…
10-07 18:45:33	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	4¢	$5	0xc7f724…
10-06 19:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	SELL	7	76¢	$6	0x6f146d…
10-06 19:05:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xdcc00e…
10-06 10:58:39	Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	71	4¢	$3	0x19ce95…
10-06 04:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xa19298…
10-06 04:57:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x23c300…
10-06 04:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	13	57¢	$7	0x12594e…
10-06 04:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x20aedb…
10-06 04:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x2cb0de…
10-06 04:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x1aa2a2…
10-06 04:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x33724b…
10-06 04:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	SELL	6	59¢	$4	0xb447bb…
10-06 04:45:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x81010f…
10-05 02:12:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 02:10 UTC	Down	SELL	7	82¢	$5	0x7aaeaa…
10-05 02:10:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 02:10 UTC	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xafddca…
10-05 01:35:11	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	39¢	$7	0x68e5c7…
10-05 01:31:43	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	178	2¢	$3	0xb162d9…
10-03 03:43:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x0efaca…
10-02 10:58:59	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x7a5edf…
10-02 10:56:05	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	3¢	$2	0xc21802…
10-02 04:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x4307fa…
10-01 09:10:15	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x5efea2…
10-01 06:53:24	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	1¢	$1	0x6b30c2…
10-01 01:56:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 01:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x776a6e…
10-01 01:53:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 01:50 UTC	Up	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x20bcd2…
10-01 01:50:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 01:50 UTC	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xd8437b…
10-01 01:45:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd04803…
10-01 01:37:42	Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x740d10…
10-01 01:37:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x50a469…
10-01 01:36:54	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xe63472…
09-30 10:08:20	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	28¢	$5	0xd4ed7e…
09-30 05:47:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xb809eb…
09-30 05:40:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:40 UTC	Up	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x45f826…
09-30 05:39:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x6e3e3c…
09-29 17:38:35	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0x558391…
09-29 17:38:11	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x6f5861…
09-29 07:10:09	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x14937e…
09-29 07:01:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x9c8242…
09-29 06:55:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:55 UTC	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xa30b80…
09-29 06:48:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x5ca25c…
09-29 06:41:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x9f2350…
09-29 06:41:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:35 UTC	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x82692a…
09-29 06:37:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:35 UTC	Down	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xf94f01…
09-29 06:20:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:20 UTC	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x37a0b0…
09-29 06:15:21	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x429907…
09-29 06:13:44	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:10 UTC	Down	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xf17a11…
09-29 06:00:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 05:55 UTC	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x98e989…
09-29 05:55:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 05:55 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xfdc77b…
09-29 05:44:26	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	727	1¢	$4	0xcc40ad…
09-29 05:36:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	5¢	$4	0xbf7c7b…
09-29 05:21:20	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	6¢	$2	0xedc174…
09-29 05:14:42	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	82¢	$6	0x7bb5fc…
09-28 02:17:02	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd688d7…
09-28 02:16:47	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xd4e905…
09-28 02:15:56	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xece071…
09-28 02:14:29	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	63	3¢	$2	0xc91354…
09-27 07:57:38	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	164	1¢	$1	0xcaaa40…
09-27 07:57:11	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x66333a…
09-27 07:55:27	Will "Primetime" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	SELL	136	0¢	$1	0x304b31…
09-26 19:19:23	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	11¢	$2	0x14b399…
09-26 19:11:35	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0x2b8bd7…
09-26 10:25:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	3¢	$2	0x5f2fc1…
09-26 10:24:56	presidents cup 2026	International	SELL	12	53¢	$6	0xe643c9…
09-26 02:04:33	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	49	6¢	$3	0x2a584f…
09-25 19:10:21	Will "Primetime" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	136	1¢	$2	0xb62468…
09-25 19:05:35	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x38a8f6…
09-25 18:59:02	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	3¢	$2	0xa3c4fb…
09-25 18:52:35	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0xbdca46…
09-25 16:07:12	presidents cup 2026	International	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xe7b899…
09-25 15:58:27	Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x2944f5…
09-25 15:58:03	Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	1¢	$1	0xb91bdb…
09-25 15:52:18	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	253	2¢	$5	0x09bd3f…
09-25 15:47:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xf731a6…
09-25 03:07:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	13¢	$6	0x6ce8d1…
09-25 03:06:29	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	5¢	$5	0x9b5b46…
09-24 21:53:26	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	128	3¢	$4	0x6691b5…