Extra-Large-Accident — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

83.7%

Resolved

Trades

303

lifetime

Volume

$4.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$19

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-03 03:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

58% 100% +$5

Crypto

26% — —

Other

16% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No		+32	$19	60¢	$19	+$1	07-03 03:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	8	$685	378	378	+0	open	—	03-02 01:18
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	13	$250	164	164	+0	open	—	03-01 00:08
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	4	$229	130	130	+0	open	—	04-14 15:23
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	12	$204	229	229	+0	open	—	01-30 17:12
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	8	$175	119	119	+0	open	—	02-05 20:23
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	3	$140	79	79	+0	open	—	04-14 15:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$129	92	92	+0	open	—	04-26 18:16
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	2	$129	70	70	+0	open	—	04-09 14:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$116	78	78	+0	open	—	05-03 23:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	4	$113	133	133	+0	No	+$5	05-06 10:31
bitcoin up or down february 10 2pm et	7	$89	59	59	+0	open	—	02-10 20:06
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	6	$88	79	79	+0	open	—	04-09 16:02
si hit 110 high jan 2026 293 432 128	5	$85	55	55	+0	open	—	01-26 16:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$82	283	283	+0	open	—	05-06 10:37
bitcoin up or down february 9 11am et	2	$81	42	42	+0	open	—	02-09 16:48
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	6	$80	52	52	+0	open	—	04-17 11:54
will trump say iran 7 times during meeting with netanyahu 165	1	$70	83	0	+83	open	—	02-11 08:44
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$68	36	36	+0	open	—	04-29 14:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$64	56	56	+0	open	—	04-07 23:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$64	71	71	+0	open	—	05-06 04:34
bitcoin up or down february 13 4pm et	8	$59	109	109	+0	open	—	02-13 21:34
bitcoin above 78k on february 2	3	$57	41	40	+0	open	—	02-02 03:54
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	5	$51	75	75	+0	open	—	01-21 19:27
Kash Patel out by June 30?	7	$47	0	51	-51	open	—	06-19 22:36
will bitcoin dip to 60k in february 2026 394 616	2	$46	69	0	+69	open	—	02-05 20:32
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	2	$44	27	27	+0	open	—	02-05 13:06
naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	6	$44	39	39	+0	open	—	03-03 21:07
btc updown 4h 1770901200	12	$43	42	42	+0	open	—	02-12 15:39
bitcoin up or down february 9 12pm et	4	$40	39	39	+0	open	—	02-09 17:16
bitcoin up or down february 13 3pm et	7	$38	39	39	+0	open	—	02-13 20:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 03:43:44	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x100562…
07-03 01:25:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x059fcf…
07-03 01:25:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xf6eb9a…
07-03 01:16:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xe05ccc…
07-03 00:32:37	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Portugal	SELL	9	70¢	$7	0x94bf79…
07-03 00:15:52	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x828f27…
06-30 03:05:16	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x25afc4…
06-30 03:03:38	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0xcdc13a…
06-30 02:53:20	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	Netherlands	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0x007f74…
06-30 02:40:31	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	Netherlands	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xb88ebf…
06-30 02:23:46	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	Netherlands	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0xfa05bd…
06-30 01:47:08	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	Netherlands	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xac2809…
06-20 17:09:08	will cristiano ronaldo score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144406402	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xbd6dde…
06-19 22:36:53	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x67c058…
06-19 22:16:49	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x62a4c4…
06-19 22:06:14	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xbf09ef…
06-17 15:49:40	will cristiano ronaldo score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144406402	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x7b33bf…
06-14 01:36:36	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x91405a…
06-12 11:40:34	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0xfaecf9…
06-12 10:54:43	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	18	91¢	$16	0x57fdce…
05-28 23:30:55	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x341903…
05-06 10:37:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	283	14¢	$40	0x742383…
05-06 10:32:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	283	15¢	$42	0x9d07ae…
05-06 10:31:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	33	96¢	$31	0x1d9a6e…
05-06 10:30:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	19	66¢	$13	0xe4e3ab…
05-06 04:34:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	35	34¢	$12	0x7635c7…
05-06 01:09:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	35	36¢	$13	0x1c4368…
05-05 13:42:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	33	86¢	$28	0x5e9f04…
05-04 21:29:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x3c5e5b…
05-04 20:18:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	71	55¢	$39	0xd986fc…
05-04 20:17:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x5ee6f7…
05-03 23:27:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	78	84¢	$65	0x5e2d30…
04-30 11:35:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x39f487…
04-29 14:40:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0x727941…
04-29 14:25:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$36	0x573edd…
04-29 09:15:20	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	SELL	21	49¢	$10	0xc5381a…
04-29 01:15:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	13	68¢	$9	0xff839b…
04-29 01:15:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x64951a…
04-28 21:34:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	63	65¢	$41	0x13794d…
04-26 18:16:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0xc7684a…
04-25 10:48:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0xb956c9…
04-23 21:44:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	77¢	$12	0x1cd9b1…
04-23 21:42:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x0c4f6b…
04-21 20:22:42	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	74	1¢	$0	0x1a347b…
04-21 11:08:20	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	74	2¢	$1	0xd2b8fe…
04-19 01:00:30	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	147	14¢	$20	0x35588e…
04-17 13:32:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x9bbea0…
04-17 13:28:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	72	41¢	$30	0x218c7b…
04-17 11:54:52	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	SELL	52	90¢	$47	0xf67b37…
04-16 11:40:10	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x3a3bb2…
04-16 08:22:32	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0x41f517…
04-15 14:57:32	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x2b54f3…
04-15 14:52:04	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x8e8327…
04-15 14:18:22	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x89801b…
04-15 14:06:26	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xe6574c…
04-14 15:23:31	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0xf32f5e…
04-14 15:23:07	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0xa068b7…
04-13 21:23:17	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	94¢	$43	0xa24e4b…
04-13 10:59:03	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	73¢	$21	0x363dd6…
04-13 10:57:27	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x3cac24…
04-13 10:54:59	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0x61f274…
04-12 12:18:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x25d693…
04-12 12:17:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x5f2234…
04-12 12:04:01	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x972ca3…
04-12 03:59:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x3d5599…
04-11 13:42:37	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	79¢	$67	0x76aead…
04-10 21:20:09	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	89¢	$75	0x483df6…
04-09 16:02:27	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	79	53¢	$42	0x9c950d…
04-09 15:27:39	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x982ef6…
04-09 15:27:15	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xd831fe…
04-09 15:21:31	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x6305e9…
04-09 14:52:31	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x098515…
04-09 14:50:23	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0xa7c2b7…
04-08 21:04:51	Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	86¢	$60	0xa5ac61…
04-08 14:44:37	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xf6bc9f…
04-07 23:36:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	56	98¢	$54	0x627901…
04-07 23:30:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xec8fe3…
04-07 21:20:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	17	42¢	$7	0x145959…
04-07 21:20:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x3bc16d…
04-07 20:34:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	42	16¢	$7	0x0d65c6…
03-27 18:12:39	will trump say crypto or bitcoin this week march 29	No	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0x358b37…
03-16 03:14:37	ethereum above 2100 on march 16	No	SELL	19	9¢	$2	0x453ea8…
03-15 13:14:33	ethereum above 2100 on march 16	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xb1a7e6…
03-03 21:26:59	will trump say france during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xac31ec…
03-03 21:07:21	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	39	49¢	$19	0x7d3c4a…
03-03 20:59:03	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	288	1¢	$1	0xdd4ac1…
03-03 17:01:03	will trump say france during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x30a886…
03-03 16:49:33	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	43	11¢	$5	0x173321…
03-03 16:49:05	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x83ac29…
03-03 16:48:11	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	43	11¢	$5	0xf0f999…
03-03 16:28:53	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	201	10¢	$20	0x1b73c3…
03-03 15:51:15	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x272bbc…
03-03 15:47:03	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x29f0c7…
03-02 16:29:07	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xc778b8…
03-02 01:20:47	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	23	67¢	$15	0xf99691…
03-02 01:18:39	will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	Yes	SELL	113	100¢	$113	0x328c81…
03-02 00:41:43	will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	Yes	BUY	113	98¢	$111	0x809463…
03-02 00:10:03	will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	Yes	SELL	124	90¢	$111	0xc84118…
03-01 23:52:13	will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	Yes	BUY	124	88¢	$109	0x98b603…
03-01 23:38:27	will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	Yes	SELL	125	87¢	$109	0xcdffe2…