Accurate-Contrary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

119

lifetime

Volume

$1.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$61

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-28 16:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

37% 94% +$2

Politics

34% 100% +$17

Crypto

22% 100% +$1

Tech

7% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes		+33	$32	94¢	$31	-$1	10-14 14:35
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+30	$29	99¢	$30	+$1	10-28 16:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$85	59	29	+30	open	—	10-28 16:03
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	3	$74	37	37	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 18:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$73	37	37	+0	No	+$0	09-07 12:19
us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	2	$72	36	36	+0	No	+$0	08-13 17:42
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$44	22	22	+0	Yes	+$0	09-30 14:05
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$36	37	0	+37	No	+$1	08-14 01:27
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	08-05 12:14
fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	2	$35	35	0	+35	Belgium	+$0	07-01 22:46
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$34	36	0	+36	No	+$2	10-04 00:44
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	08-21 17:39
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$32	33	0	+33	open	—	10-14 14:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	08-31 19:15
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch	1	$28	29	0	+29	No	+$0	09-17 19:13
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$26	26	0	+26	Yes	+$0	07-30 15:04
will xi jinping visit us by september 23	1	$25	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	09-23 10:39
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	09-30 17:27
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$22	22	0	+22	Yes	+$0	10-25 23:49
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	05-31 07:00
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$18	19	0	+19	No	+$0	08-18 15:01
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	09-29 06:36
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$17	8	8	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 19:16
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	2	$14	62	62	+0	No	+$14	10-25 23:45
Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	2	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	10-26 04:14
Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	05-13 06:10
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$13	6	6	+0	No	+$0	09-01 03:51
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	3	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	05-11 08:09
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	04-28 19:36
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	09-29 16:43
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	2	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	04-23 08:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:03:47	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xad0a6c…
10-28 06:16:16	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	29	98¢	$28	0xdbaf3c…
10-27 20:11:21	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0x7d0580…
10-26 04:14:24	Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x71f37b…
10-25 23:49:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xa400ea…
10-25 23:45:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	62	23¢	$14	0xa02dc2…
10-23 01:52:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	62	0¢	$0	0x5dc119…
10-14 14:35:21	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	33	95¢	$32	0x9510fb…
10-07 23:10:37	Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x95b0b3…
10-04 00:44:19	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0x2c220b…
09-30 17:27:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x3f1c67…
09-30 14:05:47	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xfcf186…
09-29 16:43:20	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xdef024…
09-29 06:36:38	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x7c4b46…
09-28 20:42:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x409c36…
09-24 19:34:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xcc88a0…
09-23 10:39:17	will xi jinping visit us by september 23	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x8d695b…
09-23 03:10:56	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x5e88d3…
09-17 19:13:25	Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch	No	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0x3e4d25…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x77e719…
09-11 20:53:55	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb0bf79…
09-10 18:55:24	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x6cf284…
09-10 18:42:10	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xb9223f…
09-10 12:15:30	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x38e7d0…
09-07 12:19:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0xa08cbf…
09-03 13:29:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$36	0x30fabc…
09-01 03:51:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x8dddf2…
08-31 19:16:22	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xef4863…
08-31 19:15:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x638475…
08-28 04:57:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x5a2c40…
08-27 11:46:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2a0474…
08-27 09:09:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x774fce…
08-27 04:12:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1e8745…
08-24 06:00:45	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xa9626c…
08-21 17:39:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x5eca77…
08-21 07:17:45	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x3fd04f…
08-20 20:15:27	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xef7b40…
08-20 19:55:43	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x546214…
08-18 15:01:19	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$18	0x49b687…
08-18 12:11:01	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xc88987…
08-18 12:10:55	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xe3e100…
08-18 12:08:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x616827…
08-18 12:07:24	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xde1ffa…
08-18 12:07:22	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x42fed8…
08-18 12:07:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x8caa2a…
08-18 12:06:48	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x5a68b9…
08-18 12:04:46	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x2afcb1…
08-18 12:02:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xbf6a5d…
08-14 01:27:30	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	37	98¢	$36	0xdf5717…
08-13 17:42:10	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x79aa8f…
08-10 02:36:13	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x664801…
08-05 12:14:36	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x8b6d50…
07-30 15:04:23	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x0e6095…
07-28 04:17:13	will spy reach 800 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0d0f36…
07-27 14:10:48	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8f838b…
07-26 13:51:30	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x67c00b…
07-25 22:27:10	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2e401b…
07-24 14:40:28	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0610be…
07-24 06:40:27	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x672652…
07-20 18:29:16	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0f14ce…
07-01 22:46:35	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x43eede…
07-01 22:39:29	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x69fd3e…
05-31 07:00:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x2d0aff…
05-13 06:10:20	Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd680da…
05-11 08:09:23	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x8db065…
05-08 19:34:08	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd6baf2…
05-07 11:01:18	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc79517…
05-05 21:39:42	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x705ef2…
05-05 14:13:06	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8dc73c…
05-05 07:59:54	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbd8fbd…
05-05 07:26:16	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe76e59…
04-28 19:36:56	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x96a5f2…
04-26 06:27:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa944a4…
04-23 08:23:16	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0x17b86e…
04-22 11:09:08	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3e46a6…
04-18 21:32:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x43ec5d…
04-18 01:58:20	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf4a573…
04-14 17:41:34	Will Ethereum dip to $400 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x16b5c3…
04-13 14:20:25	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x105199…
04-06 02:20:25	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xfcee7d…
03-26 03:01:25	will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbeb566…
03-24 01:41:53	googl above 350 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x295f93…
03-23 01:20:13	will bitcoin dip to 35k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc8f16d…
03-21 13:00:33	aapl above 330 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7b0685…
03-19 10:23:17	tsla above 470 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcc3a15…
03-16 08:24:05	will saudi aramco be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xceae45…
03-14 20:03:57	will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3d0d71…
03-13 19:32:15	will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 924	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4fd254…
03-12 22:02:03	nflx above 180 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x09a9da…
03-12 04:06:39	will the ecb announce no change at the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5dcbb0…
03-11 07:19:47	will mistral have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 494	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4abc50…
03-09 17:42:21	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x1a76d1…
03-07 22:45:57	amzn above 270 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe6920c…
03-07 05:02:13	will solana dip to 20 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1132b3…
03-06 14:26:13	will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xe6d06c…
03-04 23:20:53	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x898a55…
02-22 11:32:18	nvda above 150 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x783f69…
02-21 21:26:24	will microsoft be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6be7cd…
02-21 03:46:32	aapl above 320 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd68759…
02-15 03:22:01	will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7327a9…