Aching-Thermals — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.36K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.16K

Hit rate

73.0%

Resolved

364

Trades

2,586

lifetime

Volume

$315.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$122

Open exposure

$8.30K

15 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 06:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 118 days

Categories

Sports

68% 68% -$3,536

Politics

23% 41% -$1,715

Other

9% 67% +$872

Tech

0% 100% +$11

Crypto

0% 100% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+4,000	$1,670	68¢	$2.7K	+$1,070	05-29 16:31
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+6,382	$3,745	32¢	$2.0K	-$1,735	06-03 00:29
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,900	$729	30¢	$580	-$150	09-02 00:00
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+837	$526	66¢	$557	+$30	10-19 18:16
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+915	$1,018	56¢	$508	-$510	07-14 07:05
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	+1,500	$525	30¢	$457	-$67	09-02 08:10
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+621	$237	68¢	$425	+$188	05-31 15:05
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,319	$739	32¢	$416	-$324	09-15 03:20
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+800	-$81	38¢	$300	+$381	09-25 03:06
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+500	$245	34¢	$167	-$77	09-01 16:56
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+500	$38	13¢	$65	+$27	07-11 22:39
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+100	$19	44¢	$44	+$25	06-03 06:11
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	No	+158	$72	16¢	$25	-$47	08-12 04:04
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	+59	$27	15¢	$9	-$18	08-12 03:49
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+0	-$46	44¢	$0	+$46	06-03 21:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	121	$10.9K	8,139	7,124	+1,015	open	—	07-14 07:05
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	66	$6.9K	6,600	3,450	+3,150	Yes	+$129	07-30 04:28
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	93	$5.3K	6,862	2,636	+4,226	Yes	-$4	08-03 22:57
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	55	$5.2K	8,003	1,000	+7,003	open	—	06-03 00:29
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	38	$4.1K	4,200	4,200	+0	open	—	06-03 21:35
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	62	$3.9K	7,526	300	+7,226	No	-$32	07-29 06:46
mlb sf cin 2026 04 16	27	$3.5K	3,755	0	+3,755	San Francisco Giants	+$301	04-16 18:44
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	49	$3.4K	6,319	1,000	+5,319	open	—	09-15 03:20
mlb cle sea 2026 03 28	31	$3.4K	3,205	1,829	+1,376	Cleveland Guardians	-$491	03-29 04:56
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins	21	$3.2K	1,711	1,711	+0	Miami Marlins	+$185	04-19 21:49
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	7	$3.2K	3,393	0	+3,393	St. Louis Cardinals	+$215	04-19 21:04
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals	6	$2.9K	1,563	1,563	+0	Washington Nationals	+$203	04-19 21:20
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	46	$2.9K	5,973	5,973	+0	No	-$68	06-06 21:24
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	33	$2.8K	2,758	2,358	+400	Yes	-$25	08-03 23:53
mlb chc phi 2026 04 14	1	$2.7K	2,988	0	+2,988	Chicago Cubs	+$239	04-15 00:32
mlb mil bos 2026 04 08	9	$2.7K	2,616	469	+2,147	Boston Red Sox	+$315	04-08 18:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.6K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$422	05-27 17:12
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	23	$2.6K	3,963	672	+3,291	Yes	+$25	08-30 22:17
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals	9	$2.5K	2,810	793	+2,017	Seattle Mariners	-$341	04-25 21:25
nfl ne den 2026 01 25	6	$2.4K	2,531	0	+2,531	Patriots	+$130	01-25 23:01
Knicks vs. 76ers	26	$2.4K	3,500	1,499	+2,001	Knicks	-$16	05-08 22:09
Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	35	$2.3K	3,012	2,212	+800	Yes	+$501	08-06 02:28
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants	12	$2.3K	2,550	0	+2,550	Los Angeles Dodgers	+$229	04-23 20:52
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants	7	$2.3K	2,400	0	+2,400	San Francisco Giants	+$127	04-22 04:14
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	25	$2.2K	3,367	633	+2,735	Yes	-$33	07-29 00:24
mlb wsh phi 2026 03 31	2	$2.2K	2,000	400	+1,600	Philadelphia Phillies	+$160	04-01 02:12
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	2	$2.2K	2,289	0	+2,289	Yes	+$57	07-09 21:46
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels	5	$2.2K	2,501	0	+2,501	Toronto Blue Jays	+$270	04-21 04:04
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	9	$2.2K	2,300	0	+2,300	England	+$150	07-18 22:11
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	57	$2.1K	5,226	1,325	+3,900	Yes	-$210	08-10 23:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 06:16:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	500	52¢	$260	0x6c49ed…
10-27 23:13:32	Spread: Knicks (-9.5)	Knicks	BUY	68	31¢	$21	0xc11a6e…
10-27 22:34:47	Spread: Jets (-1.5)	Panthers	BUY	300	74¢	$222	0xacef9b…
10-27 22:33:56	Spread: Islanders (-1.5)	Predators	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x594212…
10-26 04:26:30	Wild vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	289	90¢	$259	0x6445a7…
10-24 01:45:39	Spread: Warriors (-3.5)	Grizzlies	SELL	500	47¢	$235	0xfd51f5…
10-24 01:44:30	Spread: Warriors (-2.5)	Grizzlies	SELL	300	44¢	$132	0xe5d2b3…
10-23 23:36:50	Spread: Warriors (-3.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	500	46¢	$230	0x5c5ac0…
10-23 22:20:12	Spread: Warriors (-2.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x1f1be6…
10-23 21:57:53	Spread: Warriors (-2.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	145	43¢	$62	0x16b37f…
10-23 21:57:51	Spread: Warriors (-2.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0xd2e6ac…
10-23 00:52:29	Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x3cd2b3…
10-22 20:27:38	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	500	40¢	$200	0xf13135…
10-22 02:18:00	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	93	36¢	$33	0xe8e968…
10-22 02:18:00	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x17d777…
10-22 02:17:59	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0x30e661…
10-22 02:17:57	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	76	36¢	$27	0x66606f…
10-22 02:17:56	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x5d4c1c…
10-22 02:17:54	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	303	36¢	$109	0xe0fc8c…
10-22 02:17:54	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x5691a2…
10-22 02:17:53	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	12	38¢	$5	0x69e8ca…
10-22 02:17:51	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x998986…
10-22 02:01:23	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf56f70…
10-22 01:34:59	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x27e421…
10-22 00:30:59	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	114	16¢	$18	0xc08766…
10-22 00:29:24	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0xab5aae…
10-22 00:25:20	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x5fddb5…
10-22 00:25:18	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0x2c863c…
10-22 00:20:26	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	109	52¢	$57	0x01443a…
10-21 23:08:06	Flyers vs. Sabres	Flyers	BUY	175	34¢	$59	0xe08441…
10-21 23:06:56	Flyers vs. Sabres	Flyers	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x8efd35…
10-21 23:06:00	Flyers vs. Sabres	Flyers	BUY	91	34¢	$31	0x9bcd9c…
10-21 23:02:26	Flyers vs. Sabres	Flyers	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x350d8b…
10-21 23:00:11	Flyers vs. Sabres	Flyers	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0x74dc38…
10-21 22:31:12	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	300	50¢	$150	0x1b2f9c…
10-21 21:02:24	Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	500	49¢	$245	0x7c6ba1…
10-21 01:29:11	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x13e7c8…
10-20 20:47:35	76ers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	741	61¢	$452	0xb87e32…
10-20 00:05:03	Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5	Over	BUY	500	46¢	$230	0x18f6d7…
10-19 18:16:26	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	800	64¢	$512	0x634596…
10-18 05:32:03	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	232	82¢	$190	0xcfa9d0…
10-18 05:32:00	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	55	82¢	$45	0xe7a138…
10-18 05:31:36	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	13	82¢	$11	0x59c2ad…
10-18 05:11:05	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	49	76¢	$37	0xf741c9…
10-18 05:11:03	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x2910fe…
10-18 05:11:03	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x1db57f…
10-18 05:11:02	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x1e4446…
10-18 05:10:59	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x6125de…
10-18 05:10:26	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	28	76¢	$21	0x0cdc34…
10-18 05:09:56	Utah vs. Colorado	Utah	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0xb8859b…
10-18 04:44:17	Nebraska vs. Oregon	Nebraska	BUY	462	64¢	$296	0x16fc92…
10-18 03:19:23	Bruins vs. Kings	Bruins	BUY	288	46¢	$132	0x79925c…
10-18 02:43:24	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	94	87¢	$82	0xb61999…
10-18 02:43:15	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	102	87¢	$89	0x2cd6ae…
10-18 02:43:14	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x5a35d5…
10-18 02:39:17	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	146	88¢	$129	0x5a97d6…
10-17 22:40:44	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0xf0f66c…
10-17 20:29:51	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	SELL	176	51¢	$90	0x731402…
10-17 20:15:47	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	SELL	286	51¢	$146	0xd05227…
10-17 20:15:08	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x8cb299…
10-17 19:59:18	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x347de1…
10-17 19:56:42	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	SELL	13	51¢	$6	0x86edd6…
10-17 19:25:23	Spread: Toledo (-7.5)	Eastern Michigan	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x11ebda…
10-17 19:07:09	Central Arkansas vs. Tarleton State	Tarleton State	BUY	300	89¢	$267	0x529fdd…
10-17 18:05:51	Stephen F. Austin vs. Nicholls State	Stephen F. Austin	BUY	643	93¢	$598	0x8af69b…
10-17 16:10:15	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	500	51¢	$255	0x685c28…
09-25 03:06:32	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	31¢	$248	0xe4fa54…
09-15 03:20:49	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	226	48¢	$108	0x48089e…
09-14 22:44:04	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x4f6ef7…
09-14 22:12:57	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0xa5731c…
09-14 15:23:22	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0xe745e6…
09-14 14:00:57	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	48¢	$19	0xd31ce9…
09-08 19:48:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	500	72¢	$360	0x91287a…
09-06 21:58:25	Patriots vs. Seahawks	Patriots	BUY	300	38¢	$114	0x0731e2…
09-02 12:27:18	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	411	51¢	$210	0x3d1016…
09-02 10:44:42	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x565ea4…
09-02 08:10:06	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	35¢	$175	0x3ddbda…
09-02 07:54:13	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xdade9a…
09-02 06:07:52	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	168	35¢	$59	0xdadc3c…
09-02 00:13:21	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0xcaa52e…
09-02 00:00:45	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	35¢	$175	0xfe7cc3…
09-01 21:25:36	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa3ac79…
09-01 21:16:24	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	250	35¢	$88	0x6f9f5b…
09-01 19:03:42	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9702e9…
09-01 16:56:34	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	306	49¢	$150	0xc2b1f4…
09-01 15:25:01	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x3bcba3…
09-01 13:16:40	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb7066a…
09-01 11:26:25	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x03ec64…
09-01 10:31:28	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0xe0791f…
09-01 10:31:18	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	150	35¢	$52	0x1d517e…
09-01 09:29:37	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x799b8d…
09-01 08:51:18	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0xe6cf95…
09-01 03:20:27	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	399	50¢	$200	0x8f2e7d…
09-01 03:14:12	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xdc616c…
09-01 03:14:10	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x8295ef…
09-01 03:14:07	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x5526b1…
08-31 21:24:13	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x41f8b9…
08-31 20:51:22	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	41	35¢	$14	0x2d9d5c…
08-31 20:48:37	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-31?	Yes	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0x1f023d…
08-31 20:48:34	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-31?	Yes	BUY	249	99¢	$246	0xa09cc6…