Aching-Thermals — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$206

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

25.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,342

lifetime

Volume

$210.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$157

Open exposure

$265

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-21 19:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Sports

95% 33% $-206

Other

3% — —

Politics

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 98 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No		+265	$255	100¢	$265	+$10	06-21 19:43
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No		+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	06-03 05:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
mlb sf cin 2026 04 16	27	$3.5K	3,755	0	+3,755	open	—	04-16 18:44
mlb cle sea 2026 03 28	31	$3.4K	3,205	1,829	+1,376	open	—	03-29 04:56
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins	21	$3.2K	1,711	1,711	+0	open	—	04-19 21:49
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	7	$3.2K	3,393	0	+3,393	open	—	04-19 21:04
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals	6	$2.9K	1,563	1,563	+0	open	—	04-19 21:20
mlb chc phi 2026 04 14	1	$2.7K	2,988	0	+2,988	open	—	04-15 00:32
mlb mil bos 2026 04 08	9	$2.7K	2,616	469	+2,147	open	—	04-08 18:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.6K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	05-27 17:12
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals	9	$2.5K	2,810	793	+2,017	open	—	04-25 21:25
nfl ne den 2026 01 25	6	$2.4K	2,531	0	+2,531	open	—	01-25 23:01
Knicks vs. 76ers	24	$2.4K	3,482	1,499	+1,983	Knicks	$-6	05-08 22:09
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants	12	$2.3K	2,550	0	+2,550	open	—	04-23 20:52
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants	7	$2.3K	2,400	0	+2,400	open	—	04-22 04:14
mlb wsh phi 2026 03 31	2	$2.2K	2,000	400	+1,600	open	—	04-01 02:12
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels	5	$2.2K	2,501	0	+2,501	open	—	04-21 04:04
nfl gb chi 2026 01 10	13	$2.1K	2,371	0	+2,371	open	—	01-11 03:21
mlb wsh pit 2026 04 13	1	$2.1K	2,299	0	+2,299	open	—	04-13 23:34
nba phi ind 2026 04 10	8	$2.1K	2,083	1,127	+955	open	—	04-11 03:17
mlb sea sd 2026 04 16	1	$2.1K	2,331	0	+2,331	open	—	04-17 01:18
nfl hou ne 2026 01 18	24	$2.0K	1,718	1,588	+130	open	—	01-18 22:29
nhl utah nj 2026 01 03	2	$2.0K	2,060	0	+2,060	open	—	01-03 21:38
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	3	$1.9K	2,238	0	+2,238	open	—	04-20 23:24
mlb sd pit 2026 04 08	2	$1.9K	1,000	997	+3	open	—	04-08 19:58
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	8	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-25 03:12
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	11	$1.9K	2,047	1,048	+999	open	—	04-22 00:13
mlb tex oak 2026 04 16	3	$1.9K	2,004	996	+1,008	open	—	04-16 22:05
mlb kc det 2026 04 14	2	$1.9K	1,000	996	+4	open	—	04-15 01:05
mlb chc phi 2026 04 15	1	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-15 23:58
mlb oak atl 2026 03 31	3	$1.8K	1,030	1,024	+7	open	—	04-01 03:01
mlb nym chc 2026 04 17	1	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-17 19:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 19:43:55	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	265	96¢	$255	0xb8aad7…
06-20 18:14:47	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 btts	No	BUY	500	49¢	$245	0x306dc5…
06-19 21:38:16	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	373	96¢	$358	0x1f34e4…
06-17 16:21:16	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	250	16¢	$40	0xa74a13…
06-17 00:00:26	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	127	94¢	$119	0x4006ae…
06-16 23:11:19	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	229	16¢	$37	0x099e5e…
06-16 23:01:16	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x88208a…
06-16 23:01:14	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x3ac5ba…
06-16 22:47:05	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	SELL	250	2¢	$4	0xffb41a…
06-16 22:45:02	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x09edc8…
06-16 22:43:55	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xdd0ccc…
06-16 22:43:55	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	373	94¢	$350	0x80a1c0…
06-16 22:43:55	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x153fbf…
06-16 22:41:52	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x385298…
06-16 22:34:28	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$13	0x1c49e6…
06-16 22:31:14	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	933	2¢	$20	0xec6004…
06-16 22:30:07	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	67	2¢	$1	0xdb185c…
06-16 22:26:59	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x496920…
06-15 04:47:27	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	300	30¢	$90	0x87287f…
06-12 17:14:10	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	902	99¢	$893	0xd1b20b…
06-12 17:12:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x3644af…
06-12 17:11:28	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x6d4db3…
06-12 17:11:16	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0x99b54c…
06-12 17:10:57	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x9280bd…
06-03 20:57:04	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	Yes	SELL	104	8¢	$8	0x5ded34…
06-03 20:44:22	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	Yes	SELL	186	9¢	$17	0xd683b4…
06-03 05:46:47	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	285	98¢	$280	0x87d523…
06-03 05:32:36	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x7a63d3…
06-03 05:28:14	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x9572a5…
06-03 05:19:58	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x54a0b2…
06-03 04:59:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb1fb5e…
06-03 04:50:22	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x5d72d9…
06-03 04:38:32	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xe614e0…
06-03 04:35:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	170	98¢	$167	0x4b7833…
06-03 04:31:26	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x53ba74…
05-31 05:23:48	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$491	0x91b466…
05-30 21:02:57	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x16ea1b…
05-30 10:23:20	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xc95291…
05-30 04:08:37	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x599383…
05-29 22:05:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0x419d55…
05-29 21:00:12	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x3ebad1…
05-29 05:43:36	Trump on $250 bill this year?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0xa534eb…
05-27 17:12:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,988	0x860f65…
05-21 03:22:05	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	923	99¢	$911	0xd28196…
05-21 03:22:03	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	76	99¢	$75	0x54fb40…
05-21 01:47:58	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Golden Knights	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0x46c3b8…
05-21 01:47:56	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Golden Knights	BUY	464	80¢	$371	0xea7bc5…
05-21 01:47:56	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Golden Knights	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0x7a078f…
05-21 01:47:53	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Golden Knights	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0x1b0315…
05-21 01:47:51	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Golden Knights	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x4b48db…
05-21 01:47:49	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Golden Knights	BUY	436	80¢	$349	0x61ce9c…
05-16 23:58:49	MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano	Carano	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x71e36b…
05-16 23:58:16	MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano	Carano	BUY	141	16¢	$23	0x84422a…
05-09 04:16:15	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0x7803e3…
05-08 22:09:08	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	SELL	69	40¢	$28	0x19efd2…
05-08 22:09:01	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x69935f…
05-08 22:08:47	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	SELL	926	40¢	$370	0xa9168c…
05-08 21:20:50	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x8a6cb4…
05-08 21:20:48	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x9b4be1…
05-08 21:20:46	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	54	43¢	$23	0x26e07f…
05-08 21:20:45	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	129	43¢	$55	0xb448d7…
05-08 21:20:38	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	34	43¢	$15	0xd8bd65…
05-08 21:20:31	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	760	43¢	$327	0x236281…
05-08 21:02:45	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	SELL	499	56¢	$279	0xd05186…
05-08 20:50:14	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	29	55¢	$16	0x561acb…
05-08 20:50:05	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	29	55¢	$16	0x4ab10e…
05-08 20:49:48	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	371	55¢	$204	0x30adeb…
05-08 20:48:50	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x97c6ee…
05-08 20:48:06	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	19	55¢	$10	0x6f663e…
05-08 20:48:05	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x752900…
05-08 19:13:17	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	1,000	47¢	$470	0x87d2a5…
05-08 18:40:07	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	542	52¢	$282	0x9f1b95…
05-08 18:39:53	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x7dbd7d…
05-08 18:38:38	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	7	52¢	$4	0x1dbee7…
05-08 18:38:03	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6944d2…
05-08 18:37:56	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	257	52¢	$134	0x112d1c…
05-08 18:37:47	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x5797af…
05-08 18:35:50	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	159	52¢	$83	0xb4117a…
05-06 11:11:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,000	59¢	$590	0x5cbc3a…
05-05 02:57:44	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	417	72¢	$300	0x3784a9…
05-01 04:06:48	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	SELL	167	25¢	$42	0x5ce652…
05-01 03:39:26	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	BUY	167	39¢	$65	0x99117e…
05-01 00:44:02	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	123	71¢	$87	0x4acbad…
05-01 00:43:58	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	22	71¢	$16	0xd1df83…
05-01 00:43:54	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0xeda9c5…
05-01 00:43:54	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	75	71¢	$53	0xbdef75…
05-01 00:43:54	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x2ca166…
05-01 00:43:48	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	29	71¢	$21	0xe275e3…
04-29 04:48:36	Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x1f0224…
04-28 23:41:46	76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	320	82¢	$262	0x232888…
04-26 02:02:22	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	168	83¢	$139	0x32a9a6…
04-26 02:02:18	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	31	83¢	$25	0xa92011…
04-26 02:02:18	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x477374…
04-26 02:02:14	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0xf414b1…
04-26 02:02:14	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x70f92e…
04-26 02:02:14	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x68cc47…
04-26 02:02:12	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0xc55163…
04-26 02:02:12	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	31	83¢	$26	0x0f4cdd…
04-26 02:02:10	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xe9ee89…
04-26 02:02:06	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xb389e4…