Actual-Recipe — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

199 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$282

$4.35K lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$46

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-10 03:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 107 days

Categories

Crypto

45% 100% +$8

Other

44% 97% +$6

Politics

7% 100% +$1

Tech

3% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No		+46	$45	100¢	$46	+$0	10-23 21:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$81	81	0	+81	No	+$0	07-27 08:25
will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	1	$59	59	0	+59	No	+$0	08-12 08:48
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$59	59	0	+59	No	+$0	08-24 11:50
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?	1	$55	55	0	+55	Yes	+$0	10-02 05:42
highest temperature in mexico city on april 15 2026 18c	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	04-15 06:55
Will BN win the 2026 Johor general elections?	1	$54	54	0	+54	Yes	+$0	07-11 17:27
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	05-18 15:40
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	3	$52	53	0	+53	No	+$0	05-13 10:54
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	04-04 14:27
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 7-13?	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	09-11 22:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	2	$50	50	0	+50	Yes	+$0	05-27 04:29
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$48	49	0	+49	No	+$0	08-16 16:20
will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	06-30 09:07
bitcoin above 54k on july 4 2026	2	$46	46	0	+46	Yes	+$0	07-02 19:25
Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	1	$45	46	0	+46	open	—	10-23 21:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on September 2?	1	$44	44	0	+44	No	+$0	09-02 19:15
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	1	$43	43	0	+43	No	+$0	10-13 12:16
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	05-20 15:16
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 September 14-20?	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	09-19 10:59
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Philadelphia Eagles next?	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	08-28 19:22
bitcoin above 66k on april 23	1	$37	37	0	+37	Yes	+$0	04-21 03:45
ethereum above 1600 on june 23 2026	1	$34	34	0	+34	Yes	+$0	06-23 01:46
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	07-01 23:31
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	09-29 06:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	1	$33	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	05-09 15:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	1	$33	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	05-26 06:38
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	09-24 05:36
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	$0	04-04 14:28
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 8?	1	$31	31	0	+31	Yes	+$0	10-07 22:23
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-15 10:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 03:29:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 9?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x14ae9f…
11-09 03:05:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x8281a0…
11-04 18:31:22	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb055d8…
11-02 12:58:30	Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x3fd9e9…
10-29 05:44:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x9a25b8…
10-28 20:48:58	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xfd45ec…
10-25 05:53:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x59962f…
10-23 21:00:45	Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$45	0xd9802f…
10-22 12:31:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb1e5bc…
10-18 07:58:27	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$23	0xe7d517…
10-16 19:12:52	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xe9f36a…
10-13 12:16:58	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x445d56…
10-09 14:42:00	Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xc827e2…
10-07 22:23:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x41dc68…
10-04 10:23:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 4?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x95c50f…
10-02 23:02:27	Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x53f03e…
10-02 05:42:29	Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?	Yes	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xabaa5b…
09-29 06:54:50	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xf1da73…
09-25 18:50:23	will bitcoin reach 90k september 21 27 2026	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x5e00e5…
09-25 00:36:44	Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on September 25?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x1a7a7e…
09-24 05:36:50	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x899376…
09-19 10:59:17	Will Ethereum reach $3,200 September 14-20?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$38	0xa1ac71…
09-17 20:16:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 18?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x81c3c3…
09-14 13:18:31	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe4833a…
09-12 12:39:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 September 7-13?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xfa708c…
09-11 22:07:21	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 7-13?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x45ee82…
09-06 00:04:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x5cbcf2…
09-04 08:56:31	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x51bc0e…
09-02 19:15:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on September 2?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xb05166…
08-29 10:29:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1413f3…
08-28 19:22:28	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Philadelphia Eagles next?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x0c1a99…
08-26 16:32:18	bitcoin above 84k on august 27 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x6d55ba…
08-24 11:50:43	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x1d6c03…
08-21 16:45:46	bitcoin above 64k on august 23 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc11d27…
08-17 08:31:37	ethereum above 2000 on august 17 2026	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x64f020…
08-16 16:20:51	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$48	0xed74b1…
08-15 06:08:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x831dfe…
08-15 00:28:25	bitcoin above 60k on august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xb94522…
08-12 08:48:42	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x6dfe96…
08-09 02:44:28	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x2ae2f1…
07-31 19:30:27	will bitcoin dip to 54k july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x7e8ddd…
07-31 15:17:38	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb3cf53…
07-30 23:00:20	will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xfc7b29…
07-27 08:25:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x4947d3…
07-27 01:45:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x8cb11f…
07-26 06:10:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0xfd0a14…
07-22 04:35:16	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd9539c…
07-16 09:28:43	bitcoin above 60k on july 17 2026	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xd5e98a…
07-14 14:12:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 14?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x857166…
07-12 22:43:55	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd1f1cb…
07-12 06:16:38	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xf16e1a…
07-11 19:41:56	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x8f666c…
07-11 17:27:44	Will BN win the 2026 Johor general elections?	Yes	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x9877d3…
07-10 04:04:14	bitcoin above 68k on july 11 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x04b1b8…
07-08 20:36:47	bitcoin above 56k on july 10 2026	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xbceb41…
07-08 04:50:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x572f46…
07-06 03:57:59	bitcoin above 66k on july 6 2026	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x400bfb…
07-05 10:31:14	bitcoin above 58k on july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xef374c…
07-05 08:08:17	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x4f6ca6…
07-04 17:51:56	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xff4572…
07-03 21:08:53	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1d5623…
07-03 10:24:17	will bitcoin reach 68k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf9edf2…
07-02 19:25:20	bitcoin above 54k on july 4 2026	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x420294…
07-02 07:30:07	bitcoin above 54k on july 4 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xe5d523…
07-01 23:31:38	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xb9acbf…
07-01 05:52:08	will andurils valuation hit high 150b by june 30	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x14b93a…
07-01 01:43:04	will openais valuation hit low 800b by june 30	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd944d9…
06-30 09:07:28	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0xa29aae…
06-29 20:09:50	will ethereum dip to 1300 in june 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf1d56a…
06-24 21:48:02	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x0a4911…
06-23 01:46:07	ethereum above 1600 on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x156631…
06-23 00:39:38	bitcoin above 60k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x76869a…
06-22 12:35:11	ethereum above 2000 on june 23 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x7f1efa…
06-21 20:07:26	bitcoin above 68k on june 22 2026	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xc8b6d0…
06-08 17:44:58	bitcoin above 68k on june 9 2026	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x6d8702…
06-03 10:19:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xdbda93…
06-03 07:18:55	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x22044d…
06-02 19:45:32	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xfa18b3…
06-02 06:00:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x361ff7…
06-01 18:32:59	Will Sharifah Hardie advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x09ff28…
05-31 06:00:35	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x5dbb8c…
05-31 02:16:17	Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x7e407f…
05-30 09:08:26	Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc048a5…
05-29 18:17:04	Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x579452…
05-29 07:46:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xdc0dc1…
05-28 22:14:28	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xa62b1f…
05-28 07:09:57	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x6765db…
05-27 21:58:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xb98ac7…
05-27 11:28:35	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xb92aae…
05-27 04:29:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x9c5411…
05-26 21:10:58	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xfd48c9…
05-26 08:48:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2c676e…
05-26 06:38:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x4a372a…
05-25 14:58:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xaec98c…
05-25 06:47:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x979f41…
05-24 17:42:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf1b3cc…
05-24 17:18:07	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xea4b97…
05-24 12:31:59	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe6d09f…
05-24 04:25:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x25e149…
05-23 07:44:32	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 24?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xea4860…