Polished-Backyard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.00K

Unrealized P&L

-$484

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

373

Trades

7,916

lifetime

Volume

$192.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$876

6 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 10-29 09:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Other

37% 18% -$9,715

Politics

34% 14% +$6,412

Sports

23% 27% -$1,607

Crypto

4% 4% -$798

Tech

2% 33% +$1,708

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+4,557	$214	8¢	$387	+$173	10-29 09:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+12,458	$898	3¢	$374	-$524	10-25 14:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+8,301	$171	1¢	$71	-$101	10-25 09:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	+2,939	$75	2¢	$44	-$31	10-27 16:18
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+125	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	07-07 11:05
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+122	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	07-07 11:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	125	$18.0K	15,927	15,927	+0	Yes	+$9,598	06-14 21:31
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	206	$12.8K	332,789	332,789	+0	No	+$115	06-25 13:11
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	95	$8.8K	9,027	9,027	+0	Yes	+$4,880	06-14 22:00
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	95	$8.6K	666,112	666,112	+0	No	-$1,046	06-25 11:26
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	105	$7.9K	75,258	75,258	+0	No	-$125	06-26 22:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	96	$4.4K	42,977	10,449	+32,528	No	+$175	06-01 03:38
Will England win on 2026-07-18?	35	$4.1K	9,700	6,836	+2,864	Yes	+$2,579	07-18 22:55
iran closes its airspace by june 8	55	$3.7K	44,113	4,518	+39,595	Yes	+$2,839	06-08 08:18
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	39	$3.4K	5,502	5,502	+0	Yes	+$2,266	07-18 05:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	55	$3.3K	17,550	6,340	+11,210	No	+$511	05-26 21:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	99	$3.1K	44,302	4,476	+39,826	No	-$1,370	06-07 06:34
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	27	$3.0K	4,388	4,388	+0	Yes	+$516	06-14 13:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	53	$2.9K	22,434	16,285	+6,149	Yes	+$1,028	06-17 04:25
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	15	$2.9K	3,178	3,178	+0	No	+$1,947	07-30 21:48
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	106	$2.8K	21,359	6,005	+15,354	No	-$150	05-30 16:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	58	$2.7K	22,741	2,738	+20,003	Yes	-$2,280	07-27 10:25
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	61	$2.3K	3,233	2,133	+1,100	Yes	+$1,030	06-27 04:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	48	$2.2K	32,698	5,696	+27,002	No	-$450	05-27 03:00
will netherlands reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120755	35	$2.2K	2,221	2,221	+0	No	+$535	06-30 04:00
Will SK Brann win on 2026-07-12?	83	$2.1K	1,647	1,647	+0	Yes	+$1,027	07-12 16:52
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	36	$2.0K	1,572	1,572	+0	Yes	+$629	07-04 18:45
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 spread away 1pt5	55	$2.0K	2,962	2,062	+900	Morocco	+$1,213	07-04 19:01
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	65	$2.0K	11,587	7,512	+4,075	No	+$240	06-13 10:10
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	52	$1.9K	1,633	1,633	+0	No	+$1,069	06-29 18:59
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	24	$1.8K	21,997	1,899	+20,098	No	-$1,444	08-15 03:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	44	$1.8K	54,347	3,297	+51,050	No	+$834	06-03 23:29
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	11	$1.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	Argentina	+$1,209	07-07 17:55
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	21	$1.5K	1,163	1,163	+0	Yes	+$577	07-10 20:52
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	72	$1.3K	18,522	7	+18,515	Yes	-$1,279	08-02 02:07
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-07-10?	41	$1.3K	1,147	1,147	+0	No	+$775	07-11 01:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:05:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2,377	4¢	$83	0x730ab1…
10-27 16:18:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	2,939	3¢	$75	0x955fd5…
10-27 15:44:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	446	6¢	$27	0x7812c6…
10-27 15:41:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,734	6¢	$104	0x5ed2a3…
10-25 14:27:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	420	7¢	$29	0x95999f…
10-25 09:10:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	672	2¢	$14	0x310134…
10-25 04:43:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xb7db95…
10-25 04:11:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x7b1064…
10-25 03:35:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x4fc4a0…
10-25 03:31:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,444	2¢	$51	0xad771d…
10-22 15:01:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,151	2¢	$116	0x31e54d…
10-21 15:09:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	820	8¢	$66	0x439185…
10-20 21:50:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	342	8¢	$27	0x2eda02…
10-20 21:30:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	8¢	$10	0xec3509…
10-20 20:30:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	8¢	$8	0xc2d3dc…
10-20 20:30:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	228	8¢	$18	0x687384…
10-18 05:26:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	3,181	1¢	$41	0x24efb0…
10-18 01:49:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	582	2¢	$10	0xde10bc…
10-18 01:37:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x0aab0a…
10-18 01:23:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	244	2¢	$4	0x535570…
10-18 01:17:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	126	2¢	$2	0xdd118e…
10-18 01:16:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	121	2¢	$2	0x65d60e…
10-18 01:10:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$19	0xcbab6c…
10-18 01:04:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xb394f6…
10-18 01:01:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	204	2¢	$4	0x5d30f9…
10-18 01:00:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	204	2¢	$4	0x23913d…
10-18 00:51:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x41c7b8…
10-17 21:23:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$25	0xe40886…
10-17 11:01:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	2,000	2¢	$30	0x199568…
10-16 17:12:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,411	5¢	$71	0x03634d…
10-16 12:39:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x3aafba…
10-16 11:11:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0xaabe9e…
10-16 00:53:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,102	6¢	$66	0x0b3eed…
10-15 16:46:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,438	0¢	$12	0x854add…
10-15 16:46:20	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,207	0¢	$6	0xdf8db5…
10-15 16:28:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf046e1…
10-15 16:26:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,177	1¢	$7	0x650042…
10-15 16:12:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	8¢	$22	0x9e37ab…
10-15 16:10:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,635	8¢	$531	0x297c94…
10-15 16:09:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11,014	4¢	$463	0x28e75f…
10-15 06:39:35	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x7e4c53…
10-15 03:31:07	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x128b33…
10-15 03:25:49	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x516d53…
10-15 03:23:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$12	0x40d481…
10-15 03:05:53	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xbd3ada…
10-15 02:47:19	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xf045a1…
10-15 01:23:20	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	427	1¢	$5	0x857ce3…
10-14 16:17:13	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	573	1¢	$7	0x8b151c…
10-13 15:05:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	2,026	3¢	$53	0xa148e8…
10-13 10:59:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	890	3¢	$25	0xd027a0…
10-13 10:13:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	4,271	3¢	$117	0x7b684b…
10-12 03:09:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	5,096	2¢	$111	0x115c5c…
10-12 02:26:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	967	2¢	$20	0x4fcdf2…
10-12 01:08:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	67	2¢	$1	0x286fde…
10-12 01:00:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x03102b…
10-12 00:30:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x81fc37…
10-12 00:29:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	413	2¢	$9	0xb66aec…
10-12 00:02:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	500	2¢	$11	0x983e7c…
10-11 23:58:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	474	2¢	$11	0x7c3736…
10-11 23:51:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0xe410f5…
10-11 22:50:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x596f0a…
10-11 22:34:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	500	2¢	$12	0xbef8c1…
10-11 18:48:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	500	3¢	$13	0x11e47d…
10-11 17:17:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	400	3¢	$13	0x897e6f…
10-11 12:34:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	3¢	$3	0xbb1b17…
10-11 12:31:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x19815e…
10-11 12:19:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$17	0x81ec21…
10-11 12:14:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x61c0af…
10-11 11:48:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xd938f1…
10-11 11:46:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	3,000	4¢	$113	0x5dcf60…
10-11 10:52:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	2,000	4¢	$74	0xc3e966…
10-11 10:44:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	346	3¢	$12	0x219cba…
10-11 10:01:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x9311e3…
10-11 09:46:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$18	0x6f76a8…
10-11 09:31:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	499	4¢	$17	0xb4ae0e…
10-11 07:02:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	353	4¢	$13	0xd7d4a6…
10-11 06:31:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$18	0xc0e8f6…
10-11 06:22:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	902	4¢	$36	0x6ca01d…
10-11 06:20:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	1,000	4¢	$40	0xd22118…
10-11 04:37:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0x2d0dbc…
10-11 03:52:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	1,000	4¢	$44	0x859425…
10-11 01:32:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x9c4a58…
10-11 00:02:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x720d7f…
10-10 22:53:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	134	4¢	$5	0x726605…
10-10 11:06:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	2,100	5¢	$97	0xcb99f2…
10-09 17:22:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$46	0xf36bb5…
10-08 14:10:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,600	4¢	$70	0x566e24…
10-07 04:14:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,414	4¢	$232	0xbb6b65…
10-05 20:05:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	No	BUY	3,991	0¢	$12	0x0932bd…
10-05 19:35:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	No	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x4dc8f6…
10-05 17:30:55	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 5	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x078d43…
10-05 17:23:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	No	BUY	403	1¢	$3	0xade680…
10-05 17:22:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	No	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0xa6063e…
10-05 16:54:50	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	155	4¢	$6	0x772a81…
10-05 16:48:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	No	BUY	493	1¢	$4	0x700f0f…
10-05 16:39:58	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 5	No	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0xa6ad4e…
10-05 16:39:58	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 5	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x734a1c…
10-05 16:39:56	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 5	No	BUY	858	1¢	$7	0x0d3097…
10-04 15:05:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	4¢	$2	0x6c7d54…
10-04 15:05:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x5c898d…