Experienced-Shaw — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$268

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

14.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$17.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$299

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 07-04 01:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Other

54% 62% -$155

Politics

26% 55% -$141

Sports

18% 57% -$1

Tech

1% 100% +$28

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-04).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	6	$8.7K	4,405	4,405	+0	No	-$6	02-14 08:34
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	3	$2.9K	1,459	1,459	+0	No	-$16	02-09 08:30
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$2.8K	1,427	1,427	+0	No	-$1	02-11 02:42
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	1	$1.5K	1,508	0	+1,508	No	+$29	02-01 06:59
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	2	$268	139	139	+0	No	+$8	01-29 09:04
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$150	262	262	+0	Yes	-$149	02-01 06:58
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$113	124	0	+124	Yes	+$11	07-04 01:44
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$97	49	49	+0	No	+$0	02-11 02:43
will silver si hit low 25 by end of february 859 949 933 273 811 757 923 129	2	$94	48	48	+0	No	+$0	02-08 13:10
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$55	56	0	+56	No	+$1	05-14 07:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$52	0	158	-158	Yes	-$106	04-30 13:23
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	2	$45	27	27	+0	Yes	+$9	03-31 12:11
will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	03-11 01:52
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	1	$42	0	42	-42	No	$0	01-10 08:35
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$42	24	24	+0	Yes	+$6	03-31 12:11
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$40	22	22	+0	No	-$2	04-15 08:37
will solana reach 150 in march 2026	2	$38	19	19	+0	No	+$0	03-11 01:52
will ethereum reach 2800 in march 2026	2	$36	18	18	+0	No	+$0	03-31 12:11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$33	37	37	+0	No	-$33	04-30 13:24
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	2	$28	23	23	+0	Yes	-$16	05-14 07:21
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$23	32	0	+32	Yes	+$8	05-06 12:52
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	1	$23	28	0	+28	No	+$5	03-11 01:53
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$23	14	14	+0	Yes	-$1	04-19 13:00
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 5 2026	1	$22	25	0	+25	No	+$3	03-05 06:54
usisrael strike yemen by march 14	1	$21	25	0	+25	No	+$4	03-11 01:53
will mack hollins win the super bowl lx mvp	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	02-08 13:11
us x iran meeting by february 28 2026 791	2	$20	20	20	+0	Yes	-$18	02-25 11:14
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	1	$18	25	0	+25	Yes	+$7	04-30 13:40
highest temperature in istanbul on march 31 2026 17c	1	$17	17	0	+17	Yes	+$0	03-31 12:12
will israel strike gaza on february 24 2026	1	$16	17	0	+17	No	+$1	02-25 11:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 01:44:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	91¢	$113	0x70b49d…
07-04 01:44:34	Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	14	34¢	$5	0xbfa16e…
05-14 07:23:02	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x3c492d…
05-14 07:21:15	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	SELL	23	25¢	$6	0xd26300…
05-06 12:52:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	74¢	$23	0xd704aa…
05-06 12:50:28	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0x8e0782…
04-30 13:40:12	Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	25	73¢	$18	0x583dc0…
04-30 13:39:28	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	251	5¢	$13	0x9cbfa8…
04-30 13:24:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	0¢	$0	0x180e92…
04-30 13:23:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	158	33¢	$52	0x125eb5…
04-19 13:01:16	Will David Roth be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Idaho?	Yes	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0x4410ed…
04-19 13:00:48	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0x952bc1…
04-15 08:38:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	90¢	$33	0xd34ea8…
04-15 08:37:58	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	22	90¢	$19	0x0cadc3…
04-07 06:37:13	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0xd280e9…
04-07 06:36:59	will global temperature increase by between 1pt20c and 1pt24c in march 2026	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xabb415…
03-31 12:12:51	highest temperature in istanbul on march 31 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xc8bcd9…
03-31 12:12:25	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x8dfbdc…
03-31 12:11:43	will ethereum reach 2800 in march 2026	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x358342…
03-31 12:11:39	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x05c2e4…
03-31 12:11:31	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xfddaeb…
03-24 08:52:39	will ethereum reach 2800 in march 2026	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x0ccee4…
03-24 08:52:25	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	24	76¢	$18	0x8f90c2…
03-11 01:53:47	usisrael strike yemen by march 14	No	BUY	25	86¢	$21	0x7cbc09…
03-11 01:53:05	usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	No	BUY	28	83¢	$23	0xa66265…
03-11 01:52:25	will solana reach 150 in march 2026	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x1bd590…
03-11 01:52:17	will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x2b531f…
03-05 06:55:31	will solana reach 150 in march 2026	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x2fd9b4…
03-05 06:55:01	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	27	67¢	$18	0xeab00c…
03-05 06:54:39	will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 5 2026	No	BUY	25	89¢	$22	0xe4054e…
02-25 11:15:20	will israel strike gaza on february 25 2026	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x60c2d7…
02-25 11:15:10	will israel strike gaza on february 24 2026	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x2b9787…
02-25 11:14:14	us x iran meeting by february 28 2026 791	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x4002f7…
02-22 12:02:38	us x iran meeting by february 28 2026 791	No	BUY	20	92¢	$19	0x153255…
02-14 08:34:03	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	1,416	99¢	$1,406	0xec1a7b…
02-14 03:32:41	will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x5f2c1b…
02-11 02:43:45	nba sas lal 2026 02 10	Spurs	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x9c24a2…
02-11 02:43:17	Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	49	100¢	$49	0x660488…
02-11 02:43:01	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,416	99¢	$1,402	0x9f26c2…
02-11 02:42:35	Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	1,427	100¢	$1,422	0x6c3578…
02-09 08:32:01	Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x7f4cc1…
02-09 08:31:41	Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	1,427	100¢	$1,423	0xa8f752…
02-09 08:30:39	us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	No	SELL	1,459	97¢	$1,421	0xb4e67d…
02-08 13:40:17	us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	No	BUY	1,326	98¢	$1,306	0xaa46e3…
02-08 13:15:31	us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	No	BUY	133	99¢	$131	0xfc3888…
02-08 13:11:45	will mack hollins win the super bowl lx mvp	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb0bfd1…
02-08 13:10:33	will silver si hit low 25 by end of february 859 949 933 273 811 757 923 129	No	SELL	48	99¢	$47	0xb10424…
02-08 13:08:57	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	1,476	99¢	$1,459	0xf46162…
02-04 05:05:04	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,476	99¢	$1,459	0x4d78fe…
02-02 10:19:44	will silver si hit low 25 by end of february 859 949 933 273 811 757 923 129	No	BUY	48	99¢	$47	0x929164…
02-01 06:59:06	us strikes iran by february 1 2026	No	BUY	1,508	98¢	$1,479	0x298586…
02-01 06:58:40	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	1,513	98¢	$1,478	0xd369e6…
02-01 06:58:04	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	262	0¢	$1	0x73ae61…
01-29 09:04:56	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	262	57¢	$149	0x98ae87…
01-29 09:04:36	US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	SELL	139	99¢	$138	0x0e63a5…
01-29 08:57:08	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,513	98¢	$1,489	0xca9a90…
01-10 08:36:00	US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	BUY	139	93¢	$130	0x7416d9…
01-10 08:35:30	Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0xea15a9…