Major-Dusk — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$146

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

55.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$564

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$260

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 07-08 20:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

63% 0% $-16

Politics

25% 100% +$162

Tech

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-119	$-111	94¢	$-112	$-2	07-08 20:15
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	No	-112	$-105	97¢	$-109	$-4	07-08 20:15
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-208	$-17	8¢	$-18	$-1	07-08 20:15
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	-127	$-11	10¢	$-12	$-1	07-08 20:15
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	-245	$-10	4¢	$-9	+$1	07-08 20:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$111	0	119	-119	open	—	07-08 20:15
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	1	$105	0	112	-112	open	—	07-08 20:15
anthropic openai vs microsoft higher valuation on december 31	1	$66	0	168	-168	open	—	07-08 20:15
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in April 2026?	1	$50	181	0	+181	open	—	04-01 17:00
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$50	161	0	+161	open	—	04-01 17:04
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	2	$30	1,116	0	+1,116	open	—	05-23 04:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$20	182	0	+182	Yes	+$162	03-30 22:07
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be negative?	1	$20	86	0	+86	open	—	03-30 21:48
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$17	0	208	-208	open	—	07-08 20:15
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	1	$15	250	0	+250	open	—	03-30 22:20
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	1	$11	0	127	-127	open	—	07-08 20:15
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$10	0	245	-245	open	—	07-08 20:15
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 160 179	1	$10	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	04-01 00:05
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$10	143	0	+143	open	—	03-30 22:06
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	242	0	+242	open	—	03-30 22:08
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	1	$5	118	0	+118	open	—	04-01 04:46
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 140 159	1	$5	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	04-01 00:05
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	1	$5	160	0	+160	open	—	04-01 04:46
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$5	104	0	+104	Yes	$-5	03-30 22:14
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$2	1,000	0	+1,000	No	$-2	03-30 22:12
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$2	667	0	+667	No	$-2	03-30 22:12
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$2	95	0	+95	No	$-2	03-30 22:12
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	1	$2	108	0	+108	open	—	04-01 00:17
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in April 2026?	1	$1	59	0	+59	open	—	04-01 04:46
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$1	143	0	+143	No	$-1	03-30 22:13
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$1	333	0	+333	No	$-1	03-30 22:13
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	No	$-1	03-30 22:11
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$1	167	0	+167	No	$-1	03-30 22:13
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$1	77	0	+77	No	$-1	03-30 22:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 20:15:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	245	4¢	$10	0xda7d4f…
07-08 20:15:34	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	127	9¢	$11	0x3fcda9…
07-08 20:15:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	208	8¢	$17	0x17a426…
07-08 20:15:28	anthropic openai vs microsoft higher valuation on december 31	Anthropic + OpenAI	SELL	168	39¢	$66	0x8bf07b…
07-08 20:15:22	Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	No	SELL	112	94¢	$105	0x5a5a97…
07-08 20:15:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	119	93¢	$111	0xb2fc91…
05-23 04:14:00	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	BUY	542	3¢	$15	0xaf5275…
05-23 03:54:40	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	BUY	574	3¢	$15	0x633adf…
04-01 17:04:21	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x1df5e6…
04-01 17:00:27	Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	181	28¢	$50	0x0c3022…
04-01 04:46:47	Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xa7e6e3…
04-01 04:46:23	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	4¢	$5	0x8209d9…
04-01 04:46:05	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	3¢	$5	0x1225c9…
04-01 00:17:43	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	Yes	BUY	108	2¢	$2	0x94b8ab…
04-01 00:05:13	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 160 179	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x81514b…
04-01 00:05:11	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 140 159	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x399e93…
03-30 22:20:15	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	6¢	$15	0x2d0b79…
03-30 22:14:11	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0x0e9d3c…
03-30 22:13:55	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xa187bb…
03-30 22:13:49	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xba0e4d…
03-30 22:13:43	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x381aef…
03-30 22:13:33	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x8d11ab…
03-30 22:12:23	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	667	0¢	$2	0x8e1dad…
03-30 22:12:19	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x35590e…
03-30 22:12:13	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0xbb9a3a…
03-30 22:11:53	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x21f213…
03-30 22:08:45	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	242	2¢	$5	0x6b118d…
03-30 22:07:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0x9d6890…
03-30 22:06:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x7dff71…
03-30 21:48:05	Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be negative?	Yes	BUY	86	23¢	$20	0x1f3fb9…