Real-Flesh — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$201

Hit rate

87.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,576

lifetime

Volume

$419.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$266

Open exposure

$372

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-01 16:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

37% 53% $-118

Other

35% — —

Politics

27% 50% +$113

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		-373	$-170	100¢	$-372	$-201	05-29 15:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	8	$12.0K	7,552	7,552	+0	open	—	03-26 16:23
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 8	5	$11.8K	6,281	6,281	+0	open	—	02-09 09:12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6?	25	$11.6K	7,947	7,947	+0	No	+$528	05-06 16:52
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	14	$9.1K	5,627	5,627	+0	open	—	03-02 07:31
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	12	$7.3K	7,754	7,754	+0	open	—	06-01 12:11
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	10	$7.2K	3,924	3,924	+0	open	—	04-06 08:28
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	16	$6.9K	4,566	4,566	+0	open	—	04-05 09:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26?	3	$6.6K	3,363	3,363	+0	open	—	05-26 14:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	19	$6.4K	11,991	0	+11,991	open	—	06-01 09:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	6	$6.4K	4,556	4,435	+121	open	—	04-15 18:22
bitcoin above 66k on april 3	2	$5.7K	3,200	3,150	+50	open	—	04-03 16:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	11	$5.6K	3,369	3,369	+0	open	—	05-30 04:17
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	7	$5.5K	4,860	4,860	+0	open	—	02-06 15:44
bitcoin above 68k on march 23	2	$5.1K	2,613	2,612	+1	open	—	03-23 15:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	5	$4.9K	5,196	5,196	+0	open	—	03-23 17:20
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?	7	$4.9K	2,680	2,680	+0	open	—	05-01 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET	8	$4.5K	6,410	1,000	+5,410	open	—	06-01 16:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	9	$4.4K	2,435	2,435	+0	open	—	04-22 20:26
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?	9	$4.1K	2,426	2,426	+0	open	—	02-17 16:43
elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 65 89	7	$4.0K	2,259	2,237	+22	open	—	04-06 14:07
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	8	$4.0K	2,330	2,330	+0	open	—	05-01 10:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	17	$3.9K	3,652	3,652	+0	open	—	05-29 15:00
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	7	$3.7K	3,184	1,592	+1,592	open	—	03-24 17:47
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	23	$3.7K	4,895	0	+4,895	open	—	03-29 21:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	14	$3.2K	1,946	1,946	+0	open	—	05-30 04:16
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 220 239	2	$3.1K	1,602	1,602	+0	open	—	02-17 12:56
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	2	$2.9K	1,752	1,752	+0	open	—	03-23 16:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	13	$2.9K	3,563	3,563	+0	open	—	04-18 15:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?	2	$2.8K	3,088	0	+3,088	open	—	05-19 11:07
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	9	$2.7K	3,781	0	+3,781	open	—	06-01 12:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 16:48:58	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	721	28¢	$199	0x1725ef…
06-01 16:48:51	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,915	70¢	$1,334	0xdfe4eb…
06-01 16:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET	Down	SELL	1,000	7¢	$65	0xe323d8…
06-01 16:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	114	38¢	$43	0xf0cd98…
06-01 16:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	460	43¢	$200	0xd71116…
06-01 16:32:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	205	49¢	$100	0x24f150…
06-01 16:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	176	57¢	$100	0x0ded4b…
06-01 16:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	2,098	69¢	$1,451	0xb523ed…
06-01 16:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	578	80¢	$460	0x98f70d…
06-01 16:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	2,778	75¢	$2,089	0x2021c7…
06-01 16:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	178	56¢	$100	0x64afac…
06-01 15:14:35	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?	No	SELL	575	97¢	$558	0x9fe4f9…
06-01 12:46:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	965	73¢	$700	0xef1f1e…
06-01 12:41:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x814d01…
06-01 12:41:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	1,389	72¢	$1,000	0x08db69…
06-01 12:40:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x4105cc…
06-01 12:38:03	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	178	74¢	$132	0xfe7419…
06-01 12:37:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x7c5d0a…
06-01 12:37:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x61df25…
06-01 12:37:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x86e5d8…
06-01 12:36:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x80aa07…
06-01 12:35:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	136	73¢	$100	0x047ff5…
06-01 12:34:52	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0x20ef45…
06-01 12:23:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	290	69¢	$200	0x10a314…
06-01 12:23:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	890	67¢	$600	0xfe2f82…
06-01 12:19:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	SELL	552	97¢	$534	0xee7d9b…
06-01 12:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x4d0d50…
06-01 12:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	339	59¢	$200	0xae5395…
06-01 12:15:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	230	75¢	$172	0xb5dfff…
06-01 12:15:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,064	44¢	$1,336	0x987f3d…
06-01 12:15:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	757	24¢	$182	0x670ec4…
06-01 12:15:08	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	SELL	333	43¢	$143	0xe13943…
06-01 12:14:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	312	29¢	$91	0xdaa096…
06-01 12:14:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	SELL	1,735	4¢	$69	0x9a0a44…
06-01 12:14:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	Yes	SELL	139	50¢	$70	0x7d1c1e…
06-01 12:14:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	688	86¢	$592	0x745a88…
06-01 12:14:19	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,114	79¢	$880	0x52a4d9…
06-01 12:14:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	794	93¢	$738	0x9328c2…
06-01 12:13:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	Yes	SELL	673	50¢	$335	0x2201d6…
06-01 12:11:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7,754	14¢	$1,122	0x778d47…
06-01 11:42:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	812	86¢	$696	0xdd848b…
06-01 11:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x5d2a91…
06-01 11:32:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0xb9f66c…
06-01 11:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x967730…
06-01 11:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x9f2738…
06-01 11:31:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xd3509e…
06-01 11:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xf7ea95…
06-01 11:30:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x55f7df…
06-01 11:29:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	629	97¢	$608	0x76d68b…
06-01 09:47:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	647	90¢	$580	0xb9cb3b…
06-01 09:47:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0xce6838…
06-01 09:47:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	730	27¢	$200	0x0f47ae…
06-01 09:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x8f3cc2…
06-01 08:14:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x7b1757…
06-01 08:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xa9ee68…
06-01 07:51:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x56d238…
06-01 07:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x3ce3b2…
06-01 07:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xfc2041…
06-01 07:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x1b607f…
06-01 07:39:20	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	333	42¢	$140	0x2b1cb6…
06-01 07:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x7fcf7b…
06-01 07:32:34	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	76	39¢	$30	0x9b99eb…
06-01 07:31:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x05bdd2…
06-01 07:30:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x8b2605…
06-01 07:30:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	735	27¢	$200	0xfd5f73…
06-01 07:29:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0xc68d55…
06-01 07:29:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x42d9c9…
06-01 07:28:25	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	No	SELL	364	100¢	$363	0xa7df09…
05-31 20:28:54	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0xb82da7…
05-31 16:55:19	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	44¢	$97	0xac55f2…
05-31 16:51:37	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xba2d7f…
05-31 14:54:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xf3d5cf…
05-31 14:31:35	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x03c06c…
05-31 14:31:07	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	212	97¢	$206	0xa4682b…
05-31 14:30:51	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x17ae1b…
05-31 13:20:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x2b1637…
05-31 13:20:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	506	91¢	$460	0xcb6a68…
05-31 13:06:51	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x5f9c5c…
05-31 12:54:05	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x32fc7a…
05-31 12:39:28	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	28¢	$16	0xa32a24…
05-31 12:38:48	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	28¢	$18	0x796dfb…
05-31 12:25:59	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x992085…
05-31 10:54:52	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x931029…
05-31 10:54:23	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	54	28¢	$15	0xee4dc5…
05-31 10:51:47	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0x27ac87…
05-31 10:51:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	368	27¢	$100	0xb8a6fe…
05-31 10:49:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	909	11¢	$100	0x6b3148…
05-30 20:32:27	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	645	86¢	$555	0xb69245…
05-30 20:30:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	SELL	414	95¢	$392	0x4b40fa…
05-30 04:45:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,455	77¢	$1,900	0x7c2cde…
05-30 04:45:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	298	34¢	$100	0xaec829…
05-30 04:20:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,134	75¢	$1,600	0xcaf383…
05-30 04:19:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	952	32¢	$300	0x93e9e0…
05-30 04:19:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	323	62¢	$200	0xd09b55…
05-30 04:18:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	556	9¢	$50	0xe4aa90…
05-30 04:17:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,542	95¢	$2,415	0x4c31b6…
05-30 04:16:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	1,946	100¢	$1,945	0xa26066…
05-29 16:35:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x0d1a77…
05-29 16:04:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xee5714…
05-29 16:04:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x111686…