Compassionate-Puddle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$111

Unrealized P&L

+$251

Hit rate

76.9%

Resolved

Trades

916

lifetime

Volume

$73.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$80

Open exposure

$893

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 06-03 06:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

52% 100% +$6

Crypto

30% 33% +$105

Other

19% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 100 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+980	$755	68¢	$662	$-93	05-28 11:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes		-1,404	$-576	16¢	$-232	+$344	05-28 11:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	58	$15.4K	20,804	20,983	-178	open	—	05-04 10:07
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	15	$6.2K	4,168	4,179	-12	open	—	03-21 03:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	8	$5.2K	4,839	1,110	+3,729	open	—	04-01 03:00
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	47	$4.5K	2,565	2,565	+0	open	—	03-16 02:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	7	$4.4K	2,400	2,400	+0	No	+$6	05-07 16:34
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	4	$2.8K	1,971	1,971	+0	open	—	04-03 09:27
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$2.8K	1,646	1,646	+0	open	—	03-09 10:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	5	$2.7K	6,603	0	+6,603	open	—	06-03 06:23
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	6	$1.8K	1,125	1,125	+0	open	—	01-30 15:26
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	9	$1.5K	844	844	+0	open	—	03-09 15:21
btc updown 15m 1770400800	2	$1.5K	1,000	984	+16	open	—	02-06 18:07
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	3	$1.4K	1,506	0	+1,506	open	—	01-22 09:14
btc updown 5m 1774065600	31	$1.3K	672	672	+0	open	—	03-21 04:04
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	4	$1.2K	652	652	-0	open	—	03-23 03:04
btc updown 15m 1770134400	47	$1.1K	1,000	984	+16	open	—	02-03 16:02
btc updown 5m 1774243200	4	$1.0K	1,103	51	+1,053	open	—	03-23 05:22
btc updown 5m 1775224800	6	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-03 14:04
btc updown 5m 1775209500	17	$980	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-03 09:49
btc updown 5m 1775292600	1	$946	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-04 08:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	43	$944	1,600	0	+1,600	Up	+$656	05-05 18:57
btc updown 5m 1775380500	1	$940	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-05 09:19
btc updown 5m 1774788000	1	$900	945	0	+945	open	—	03-29 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	10	$840	1,000	1,000	+0	Up	$-320	05-05 18:06
btc updown 5m 1774788600	1	$828	900	0	+900	open	—	03-29 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	47	$767	1,000	1,000	+0	Down	$-231	05-05 17:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$755	980	0	+980	open	—	05-28 11:34
btc updown 5m 1774069800	2	$716	424	420	+5	open	—	03-21 05:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$576	0	1,404	-1,404	open	—	05-28 11:31
btc updown 5m 1775364300	12	$486	516	10	+506	open	—	04-05 04:49
btc updown 5m 1774007100	3	$397	207	207	+0	open	—	03-20 11:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 06:23:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,750	39¢	$1,462	0x9ff4f2…
06-02 04:41:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,320	40¢	$528	0xd91123…
05-30 10:59:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,476	49¢	$723	0x0fc9e5…
05-30 10:51:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x805701…
05-30 10:47:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	49¢	$25	0xf17368…
05-28 11:34:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	980	77¢	$755	0x761e38…
05-28 11:31:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,404	41¢	$576	0xde01cb…
05-07 16:34:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	2,400	92¢	$2,208	0x0c937a…
05-07 16:24:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0x16cd05…
05-07 16:16:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	749	93¢	$697	0x23e749…
05-07 16:15:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0xede8a4…
05-07 16:15:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0xf884f7…
05-07 16:15:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0x8d2ac5…
05-07 16:15:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	635	93¢	$591	0xc5b66b…
05-05 18:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xb597df…
05-05 18:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0xaf92b7…
05-05 18:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	481	59¢	$284	0x9c5324…
05-05 18:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	69	59¢	$41	0x40d9ad…
05-05 18:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	129	59¢	$76	0x3d725e…
05-05 18:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x3be992…
05-05 18:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x2ca6b6…
05-05 18:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x204495…
05-05 18:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x0cc3f9…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0xf83cee…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0xecec53…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xe5c84e…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0xd179a1…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xc6d104…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	150	59¢	$88	0xbf7b0c…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0xb75354…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xa86b9a…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x98a6d2…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x7ee70f…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	160	59¢	$94	0x7c488a…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x753c04…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x72a800…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	58	59¢	$34	0x6720fe…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x5d7621…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	38	59¢	$22	0x474e8c…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x353f6f…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x3314c0…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	49	59¢	$29	0x32ad31…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x2a298c…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	31	59¢	$18	0x1c55bb…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x0c75a7…
05-05 18:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0x017262…
05-05 18:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8de382…
05-05 18:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x4a77cd…
05-05 18:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0xf437b0…
05-05 18:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0x972564…
05-05 18:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	49	59¢	$29	0x0bd73e…
05-05 18:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf7b04a…
05-05 18:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xbce6b0…
05-05 18:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8b4f98…
05-05 18:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xe116c2…
05-05 18:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0x7977fe…
05-05 18:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	59¢	$7	0x0c9d36…
05-05 18:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	322	25¢	$81	0xa24944…
05-05 18:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	678	26¢	$179	0x624391…
05-05 18:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	64	58¢	$37	0xef553f…
05-05 18:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	67	58¢	$39	0xee39bd…
05-05 18:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xc8bdef…
05-05 18:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	54	58¢	$31	0xbd78d0…
05-05 18:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x68bb26…
05-05 18:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x6786a5…
05-05 18:05:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	48	58¢	$28	0xabec78…
05-05 18:05:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	751	58¢	$436	0x8757f3…
05-05 17:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1,000	27¢	$268	0x470c78…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf55148…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	62	50¢	$31	0xefedc3…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xee80be…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	27	50¢	$14	0xee6340…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xeaf8a3…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xeac69d…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xe386d3…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0xd7d939…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc365b9…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	112	50¢	$56	0xac70bb…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7d8af8…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0x73a6b7…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5b5eaa…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x5b1190…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x5447d6…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4f016e…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	27	50¢	$14	0x49f685…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0x40dc96…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3859f9…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x34addc…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x338701…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x10f32f…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x0e4c8d…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x0d06c4…
05-05 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0693aa…
05-05 17:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xec352c…
05-05 17:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xb2fc8d…
05-05 17:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9ed942…
05-05 17:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x862f93…
05-05 17:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x560f47…
05-05 17:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	72	50¢	$36	0x476fed…
05-05 17:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x3f564c…